Russian efforts to sell the Su-57/PAK FA to China

Here is a Diplomat Article pointing same direction that China may license produce Su-57E. Russian delegates at LIMA2019 is advocating Su-57E to Middle Eastern countries, China and Turkey.

I am guessing Turkey will take the bait to buy Su-57 considering Turkish F-35 dream is over. Congress asked Lockheed Martin to source F-35 parts from America and remove Aselsan from supply chain.

My second guess China may help cash poor buddy Russia to bail out Su-57 program if Russia opens the door to Engine technologies and 3D TVC.

araberuni said:

I am guessing Turkey will take the bait to buy Su-57 considering Turkish F-35 dream is over

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Su57E doesn't full all the aims Turkey had for F35. The established order was 100+ A models and an undetermined number of B models for there coming LHD. Although they could get SU57E in place of F35A they can't launch those monsters off the deck of an LHD.

TerraN_EmpirE said:

Su57E doesn't full all the aims Turkey had for F35. The established order was 100+ A models and an undetermined number of B models for there coming LHD. Although they could get SU57E in place of F35A they can't launch those monsters off the deck of an LHD.

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Exactly, you've really got to wonder about Erdogan, I'm going to say this is an overreaction on his part, blaming the US for the coup that his fellow countrymen staged, and the refusal of the US to extradite a Moslem Cleric who is leading an opposition against Erdogan.... so he's "pooped" in his mess kit here, he's NOT gonna get the F-35, and that is a real shame for Turkey, to make a play for the S-400 and lead people to believe that's more important militarily is just not smart.

especially since Turkey is a key partner and manufacturer in the F-35 program, billions of dollars and thousands upon thousands of jobs and introstruction and manufacturing capability... crazy

so yes, he will want the Su-57E, and Putin will be more than happy to take his money...

Air Force Brat said:

Exactly, you've really got to wonder about Erdogan, I'm going to say this is an overreaction on his part, blaming the US for the coup that his fellow countrymen staged, and the refusal of the US to extradite a Moslem Cleric who is leading an opposition against Erdogan.... so he's "pooped" in his mess kit here, he's NOT gonna get the F-35, and that is a real shame for Turkey, to make a play for the S-400 and lead people to believe that's more important militarily is just not smart.

especially since Turkey is a key partner and manufacturer in the F-35 program, billions of dollars and thousands upon thousands of jobs and introstruction and manufacturing capability... crazy

so yes, he will want the Su-57E, and Putin will be more than happy to take his money...

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So, you say that Turkey doesn't know the capability of F-35 / S-400, and making a mistake to trade the F-35 for the S400?

Because they said that the S400 is more important for them than the F35.

Anlsvrthng said:

So, you say that Turkey doesn't know the capability of F-35 / S-400, and making a mistake to trade the F-35 for the S400?

Because they said that the S400 is more important for them than the F35.

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That's right the S400 only does one thing Bub, it will take a crack at knocking down incoming aircraft, cruise missiles, maybe even an ICBM? who knows, this is Turkey, not the UK or the US? the only body they have to fear is Russia?

Now the F-35 will do damn near everything, and carry any piece of ordnance, that any Air Force has any purpose for? As well as adding to your overall situational awareness, and the situational awareness of your whole dang gum military, and do it quietly, without a fuss!

The F-35 will deliver it with a ribbon discreetly, and take you home, but what do I know??

So Yes, anyone in Turkey who gives a damn, and has an idea of what is going on in the real world, knows this is a cluster duck??

and yes, this does indeed make people buying it appear to be "paranoid"??

I'd say Turkey has decided this is the best way to get an "Ugly Divorce", or I should say Mr. Erdogan, he's the only one, well Mr. Putin as well who stands to profit, and it makes a great headline to those who don't have a clue in Turkey, that we're not going to let anyone tell us what to do!

guess who's gonna be calling the shots next??

If people are seriously doubting the Russian 40-50 million figures, you have to remember. After Ukraine, the Ruble crashed.



The ruble is now HALF the value of what it was in 2014. And reports of J-20 flyaway costs are currently around $117 million, you have to acknowledge that labor prices in China are rising right now.

So, it's a no-brainer. If the Russians are selling Su-57s for a $50mn, there's little reason for China not to buy Su-57s as a "low" in a J-20 Su-57 mix.

The Ruble isn't the deciding factor in the price of military equipment.
It's the R&D, Overhead and materials combined with labor and a profit. People pick on the F35 price tag but it compares equally to the Eurofighter or Rafale in sticker price.
Their are only three ways that Russia can sell an advanced gen fighter to anyone for that cheap.
1) Build them like Mig21s.
A high production rate will drop the price as R&D and Overhead are spread across greater numbers.
This is how the three other fighters I pointed to got there price tags to drop.
Problem Russia hasn't done that in decades is unlikely to be able to do that.
2) use totally off the shelf technologies.
Less R&D means less impact on the Price. But the Russians didn't have A lot of the tech in a fifth gen off the shelf they had to R&D. They could do that for SU35 or Mig35 but not Su57
3) Subsidize, Subsidize AF.
In essence Russia pays for half or three quarters of the fighter. This is how they and the EU maintained launch dominance in commercial space launches. Where in the commercial satilites were launched for a song on the government dime. The problem is that's not going to help a weakened economy in the long run as it draws in on more liabilities. Basically Russia eats the bill for the R&D on hopes of a larger order to keep their production line open then makes up for it by "Cost overruns", hidden fees and additional maintenance.

Air Force Brat said:

That's right the S400 only does one thing Bub, it will take a crack at knocking down incoming aircraft, cruise missiles, maybe even an ICBM? who knows, this is Turkey, not the UK or the US? the only body they have to fear is Russia?

Now the F-35 will do damn near everything, and carry any piece of ordnance, that any Air Force has any purpose for? As well as adding to your overall situational awareness, and the situational awareness of your whole dang gum military, and do it quietly, without a fuss!

The F-35 will deliver it with a ribbon discreetly, and take you home, but what do I know??

So Yes, anyone in Turkey who gives a damn, and has an idea of what is going on in the real world, knows this is a cluster duck??

and yes, this does indeed make people buying it appear to be "paranoid"??

I'd say Turkey has decided this is the best way to get an "Ugly Divorce", or I should say Mr. Erdogan, he's the only one, well Mr. Putin as well who stands to profit, and it makes a great headline to those who don't have a clue in Turkey, that we're not going to let anyone tell us what to do!

guess who's gonna be calling the shots next??

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S-400 is not what Turkey, Saudi, Qatar think. MALD-J, EA-18 Growler, Sky Shield and AN/ASQ-239 can jam S-400 illumination radar. HARM can destroy S-400.
If I look at Chinese military trends then Electric warfare is a key area China is focusing on and developing greater electronic warfare capabilities. China has developed some good electronic attack capability including laser disturbance. Russian philosophy is different on electronic capabilities with an exception of GPS jammer for V Putin's Security.

If China can combine engine capability of Su-57 into J-20 & J-31 then J-31 would have huge export potential to Latin america and Asia.

TerraN_EmpirE said:

The Ruble isn't the deciding factor in the price of military equipment.
It's the R&D, Overhead and materials combined with labor and a profit. People pick on the F35 price tag but it compares equally to the Eurofighter or Rafale in sticker price.
Their are only three ways that Russia can sell an advanced gen fighter to anyone for that cheap.
1) Build them like Mig21s.
A high production rate will drop the price as R&D and Overhead are spread across greater numbers.
This is how the three other fighters I pointed to got there price tags to drop.
Problem Russia hasn't done that in decades is unlikely to be able to do that.
2) use totally off the shelf technologies.
Less R&D means less impact on the Price. But the Russians didn't have A lot of the tech in a fifth gen off the shelf they had to R&D. They could do that for SU35 or Mig35 but not Su57
3) Subsidize, Subsidize AF.
In essence Russia pays for half or three quarters of the fighter. This is how they and the EU maintained launch dominance in commercial space launches. Where in the commercial satilites were launched for a song on the government dime. The problem is that's not going to help a weakened economy in the long run as it draws in on more liabilities. Basically Russia eats the bill for the R&D on hopes of a larger order to keep their production line open then makes up for it by "Cost overruns", hidden fees and additional maintenance.

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You're ignoring the fact that all of these costs are paid in Russian Rubles, not USD or EUR. The R&D work was done in Rubles, the manufacturing work was done in Rubles, and Russian raw materials were bought in Rubles.

It turns out Obama's bright idea of pressuring the Russians was a terrible mistake from that perspective.

Inst said:

You're ignoring the fact that

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Everyone who quotes that price from Russian Officialdom used the word "Will". Just as they use that word for T14. "Will" be cheaper than T90 "Will be $50 Million US". If Su57 was $50Million US why then are the Russians not pulling that trigger on a large unit buy? The R&D being paid in Rubles just means it takes more Rubles.
I mean for goodness sake, that's the price of the Su35!! If it's that cheap why did they even bother with Mig35 And Su35? Answer because as @Jura likes to point out F35 was supposed to be $70Million dollars today.
The projections that lead to a $45-50million unit price is based on the assumption of almost 600 total units of which 200 for the Russian Airforce almost 400 FMS units of which 100+ for China. Oh and about 100+ for india to. That's a Fantasy.