Russia Economy Thread

[pmc]

I heard that in a lot of cases cars were ordered last year but the orders only came through this year.

There was also likely a lot of uncertainty. People in Russia wanted to see if they would get support for their cars before committing to a purchase. Now that some Chinese car manufacturers are getting stable chains those are starting to sell.

Car factories in Russia are also recovering from the interruption caused by the loss of Western parts supplies. KAMAZ already recovered production including of their new K5 truck model. AvtoVAZ i.e. Lada massively ramped up production of older models which did not use Western parts supplies and recently restarted production of their latest models with non-Western parts.

Some car factories which build cars on a license have switched from Western to Chinese car designs and have resumed production. We will probably see the results at the end of the year or maybe next year.

There was some consumer reluctance to buy Chinese cars initially but I think that has mostly been overcome. And given how people seldom switch car brands, any changes are likely to stay.

The size of new car market will remain small. Average age of vehicle is about 15 years in Russia even older than US.
used car market in Russia several times bigger than new car market and this avg age of car will further increase as more used cars are absorbed into the market. This access to parts and skills that is keeping the used car market afloat. when avg age is 15 years than 30 years is not extreme as some percentage of vehicles will be new.
Chinese car brands can only succeed long term if they have value and easy maintainable post warranty period up to 30 years.
This Haval has factory but production i dont think have ever crossed 50k per year. 50K per year is not factory that will make realistic profit. but even if it crosses 100K it has too many models to do it. it makes the support structure in terms of parts and dealership expensive.

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Complete confidence in our vehicles, as well as the high quality of production and components, allows us to guarantee 5 years of support for your HAVAL vehicle: 3 years of warranty and 2 years of post-warranty service

 

[pmc]

solid state battery. they are expecting 4 Giga factories locations at some point.

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In solid-state batteries, the electrolyte is in a solid state, and its temperature operating range is much wider. This allows you not to be afraid of winter operation and speed up the charging time without fear of overheating.

Now there are no serial batteries for passenger electric vehicles with solid-state batteries in the world. However, their prospects have long been talked about a lot, and recently Nissan predicted that they would appear no later than 2028.

“We already have them, we can show them! True, these are laboratory samples, not yet serial. But we are working on a serial version and expect to release them in accordance with the global trend by 2030,” Bedanokov said.
According to him, such batteries will be made at the company's gigafactory in Kaliningrad. Production there was initially geared towards regularly improving the chemical composition of batteries and, in the future, replacing the gel with a solid-state electrolyte.

 

[pipaster]

New direct doing shipping from Chenglinji to Vladivostok, talking 10+ days and expected to ship some 50,000 tonnes of mostly finished products a year.

 

[pmc]

Related to EV and other semi production.

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Russia expected to full meet own lithium needs by 2025 - Manturov​

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MOSCOW. July 10 (Interfax) - Russia plans to fully supply itself with domestic rare metals (RM) and rare-earth elements (REE) by 2030 and will devote particular attention to developing production of lithium, domestic demand for which will be covered earlier, by 2025, Deputy Prime Minister and Industry and Trade Minister Denis Manturov said in an interview with Interfax.

"Russia has one of the largest mineral resource bases in the world, including rare metals and rare-earth elements, [for which] we're in second place in the world [after China]. The domestic resource base is capable of potentially supplying the current and future needs of Russian industry, including with the help of putting new deposits into production and building a raw material processing cycle that is as complete as possible," Manturov said.

"In order to ensure sovereignty in the area of RM and REE, investment projects are already being implemented as part of the roadmap for the development of the high-tech field 'new materials and substances technology.' According to its targets, Russian industry will be fully supplied with domestic RM and REE by 2030," Manturov said.

He said particular attention will be devoted to creating a resource base for lithium, which is now imported and then processed in Russia. Lithium is used in batteries, including for electric vehicles.

"There's no problem with processing even now, several plants have capacity to process lithium raw material. Pilot processing of the tailings of the Zavitinskoye lithium deposit in Transbaikal Territory might begin as early as this year. In addition, there are plans to mine lithium at the Talanguiskaya prospect in Transbaikal Territory. There are plans to implement a project at the Yaraktinskoye oil and gas condensate field," Manturov said.

"In the long term, we plan to implement a number of other mining projects. The overall amount of lithium production across all projects by 2025 will meet domestic needs, and by 2030 will simultaneously supply domestic demand and exports," Manturov said.

 

[tonyget]

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The yuan blew in autumn

Russian banks have reduced the volume of deposits in Chinese currency abroad

Balances on deposits of Russian banks abroad fell to more than a year's minimum. This was mainly due to the reduction of Chinese currency balances. In part, funds from deposits could be transferred to correspondent accounts abroad, but in general, Russian credit institutions could change their risk policy amid pressure on Chinese banks and move funds to alternative instruments. Experts believe that Russian banks receive less liquidity, as companies prefer to keep deposits in yuan directly in foreign banks.

Foreign currency balances of Russian banks on deposit and correspondent accounts abroad in May in terms of dollars decreased by $1.6 billion, to $50.8 billion. This is evidenced by data from the review of financial market risks published by the Central Bank. This is the lowest level since March last year, when balances fell below $50 billion. Most of the funds banks keep on correspondent accounts ($38.4 billion as of June 1), while only $12.3 billion is on deposits.

The biggest decline in May was in Chinese currency deposits, which fell $0.6 billion to less than $1.0 billion, a ten-month low.

Balances on deposits in dollars decreased by $0.2 billion to $8.3 billion. Balances on correspondent accounts in yuan rose by $0.3 billion to $10.5 billion, breaking the negative trend of recent months.

“Nostro account balances are mainly used for trade settlements, and the dynamics generally correlates with changes in trade turnover between countries,” notes Natalia Bogomolova, an analyst at NRA banking ratings. The foreign trade turnover of Russia and China is growing in annual terms by 20%, estimated on July 11, the Chinese Ambassador to the Russian Federation Zhang Hanhui. In turn, Alexei Dakhnovsky, Russian trade representative in China, reported that the trade turnover between Russia and China in the first five months of 2023 reached almost $94 billion (quote from RIA Novosti). In general, last year it amounted to $190 billion.

In May and in general since the beginning of 2023, the yuan has weakened against the dollar, said Yury Belikov, managing director for validation at the Expert RA agency. However, according to him, the exchange rate difference explains only a small part of the reduction in funds on deposits.

In general, such dynamics may indicate that “enterprises engaged in foreign economic activity, even when paying in yuan, keep their own funds in accounts in non-resident banks, and for Russian banks this is a lost yuan liquidity,” Mr. Belikov believes. At the same time, he clarifies, an increase in the share of ruble settlements in foreign trade "should increase the involvement of Russian banks, but also does not benefit the volume of transactions in yuan and the corresponding liquidity."

In general, the balances on correspondent accounts and funds placed on the interbank market are "rather volatile," notes Yegor Lopatin, deputy director of the group of ratings of financial institutions of the NKR agency. A more complete picture should be shown by intra-monthly account balances and turnovers (which are not disclosed. - "Kommersant" ).

The decline in yuan funds may be due to “a change in the risk policies of Russian banks and a more cautious approach to placing funds in non-resident banks, given the increasing pressure from unfriendly countries, in particular on Chinese banks,” Mr. Lopatin admits.

In particular, the earlier Russian subsidiary of the Chinese group Bank of China stopped accepting payments from Russian banks, including in yuan, sent to Europe and the USA ( see Kommersant dated June 19 ). In addition, according to Ms. Bogomolova, banks are increasing investments in alternative instruments denominated in yuan, focusing on market conditions.

 

[pmc]

CIS and China industrial exhibition open at Yekaterinburg. Chinese presence is considered largest. in addition to exhibition they are building huge student campus in this area indication of demographics.

Another interesting part is that Kazakhstan involved in industrial projects as there human capital much smaller.

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Products of 250 Kazakh companies presented at the INNOPROM exhibition​

The event takes place in Yekaterinburg​

In his speech at the main strategic session, Alikhan Smailov noted the good dynamics of Kazakh-Russian cooperation in the manufacturing industry. So, since 2019, the countries have been implementing the Program of Joint Actions for Industrial Cooperation.

“Today, our pool of joint projects has been expanded to 125 with a total investment of more than $33 billion. Of these, we have already implemented 30 projects worth $3.2 billion,” the Prime Minister said.

40 joint projects worth almost $17 billion are being implemented, and 55 projects worth about $14 billion are under development.

 

[pipaster]

New refrigerated rail service from Russia to Chengdu carrying near and frozen dairy products.

 

[pmc]

Putin went to Future technology forum and mostly shown quantum tech but it remain to be seen how it translate practically. Russia is building 6 large tourist clusters and increasing flight frequencies. that should encourage returning people as they will have freedom to travel.

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As Sergey Kulik, head of the Laboratory of Quantum Optical Technologies at Moscow State University, explained to URA.RU, developments are being carried out in three main areas: quantum communications (secure communications), quantum computing (superpowerful computers) and quantum sensors (supersensitive devices). “Russian companies already have successes in the field of quantum communications: systems for confidential communications have been created. Heavy-duty computers are being developed to solve, for example, problems of searching and optimizing various processes. Sensors obtained on the basis of quantum technologies in medicine will make it possible to carry out more accurate diagnostics and, on its basis, determine the course of treatment, calculate the dosage of drugs, ”explained the expert.
xhibition stands somehow help to visualize quantum mechanics hidden from the eyes. From the presentations it follows that, for example, in Moscow, they plan to introduce

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Another area is security: the classic systems of face recognition and video surveillance of the city streets (which are still not available in many Russian municipalities) in Moscow already seem outdated.

Russian President Vladimir Putin was told about some technologies of the future at the exhibition. The head of state was shown the most powerful quantum computer in Russia. Remotely, Putin launched a real-time simulation of a simple molecule. The conversation about quantum technologies and technologies of the future as a whole continued already at the plenary session of the forum.

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will be quite specific: Putin announced the development of a new national project that will affect the data economy. It will be built, among other things, on the basis of quantum mechanics, the quantum industry. The President outlined the stages of the implementation of the national project: high-precision sensors, data transmission (development of communication systems), sovereign infrastructure for computing and storing data, security (quantum data encryption), national standards and data collection protocols, data processing and analysis algorithms. “It is necessary to solve not only current problems, but also look beyond the horizon, put the most complex physical process at the service of progress,” Putin said.

He promised support not only to scientists who work inside the country, but also to those who are ready to return to Russia. In addition, Putin said that the Russian Federation is ready to create international alliances and form new scientific schools in Russia. And for sure, the President stressed, no one can “cancel science”. “Even the all-powerful government of the Russian Federation. It is absolutely out of the question,” Putin said.

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[pmc]

used car market June and half year YTD in Russia. These car can be collected from rest of CIS or used imports. The most interesting is Honda numbers as that brand officially left few years before the Sanctions. Chevrolet is most popular brand in Uzbekistan.

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[pmc]

Ural into plug in Trucks with 500km range on battery. and Yellow is the Bus for Arctic.

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The Arctic bus is designed to develop the infrastructure of the Northern Sea Route, Yamal, Yakutia, the north of the Krasnoyarsk Territory and other Arctic regions of the Russian Federation with limited transport accessibility. Thanks to new technological solutions, insulated and lightweight components, the bus is able to perform work in extreme conditions (up to -50 degrees),
safely transport up to 22 passengers, and deliver social equipment.
Also at the exhibition, the URAL automobile plant will present the first truck in Russia with a hybrid power plant (gas + electric). At Innoprom 2023, it will be shown as an eco-friendly garbage truck. which is designed not only to clean our cities from waste, but also not to pollute the air.
One of the advantages of the car is a hybrid power plant, which provides a large power reserve (up to 500 km.). In addition, traction batteries with an innovative high temperature control system and thermoregulation guarantee safe operation. Long service life is possible even at sub-zero temperatures down to -45 degrees. The machine has already successfully passed preliminary sea trials and after certification it will be sent for trial operation. As part of the development of eco-projects at AZ URAL, it is planned to create 2 more products with a zero carbon footprint - these are fully electric and hydrogen cars. The start of their production is scheduled for the end of 2025.