Blackstone
Brigadier
Chinese military spending has been growing faster (>10%) than GDP growth for last 20 years. If Chinese defence spending continue to grow at minimum double digit rates (10%), while Chinese GDP grows at 7.5% a year, Chinese absolute military spending match American defence spending in absolute terms by 2032, but not reach 4% of GDP until 2044.
If Chinese GDP growth rate levels off to 5% a year after 2020, then Chinese military spending wil match American defence spending the same year when Chinese GDP, as well as % of GDP spend on the military, will match that of US, in 2032.
The bottom line is China's military spending of around 2% of GDP is in line with or lower than most nations not protected by US military alliances. Japan's 1% and Philippines' 1.2% GDP defense spending are outliers.