Rising Sea Dragon in Asia (PLAN) 2014 Update

asif iqbal

asif iqbal

Lieutenant General
Franklin said:
First of all that's just my speculation. Secondly i don't believe that they will stop buying new ships in the coming years. Its just that they will scale back to make more money available to buy new planes.
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I dont see a slow down, HP and HD first started on FFG and now are building lots of Coast Guard ships and also wow also some small export orders thrown in too

In the future they could move onto LPD/LHD which I believe they will

JNCX has lots to work on and so does Dalian mainly DDG and Carriers

And then you have the replenishment tankers and other ships like minesweepers etc are filling what's left

Peronally this year I am looking forward to the large replenishment tankers from Guangzhou and the two larger coast guard vessals of 12,000 tons

And off course the carriers this year too, Type 056 will continue as will Type 052D, might be the end of Type 054A this year but we have been proven wrong time and time again

Once all the critical mass is in then LPD/LHD/Carriers building will start which will be very exciting as will the CG builds and DDG, there is so much to look forward too so much is going on
 
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antiterror13

Brigadier
Franklin said:
I correct my numbers from the previous post in 2014 the PLAN will recieve:

8 x Type 056
4 x Type 054A
2 x Type 052C
1 x Type 052D

That's 15 ships in total ................
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That's 15 very capable ships and less than 15 navies in the world are stronger than those 15 ships
 
asif iqbal

asif iqbal

Lieutenant General
No question China is on the verge of a huge build up they have the right attitude and they are going about it the right way

Americans are exitings two long costly wars from Iraq and Afghanistan and now need to get back to the full spectrum of war of full scale nation warfare like 1991 rather than the unconventional guerilla tactics they have been facing

Must of the militray forces have been adjusted over the last 10 years to fighting non state forces irregular and independent

We are now talking about stratgdy and overall capabilitys, and at the front of that is the USN, with the "Pacific Pivot" stratedgy American will have 4 carriers in the Atlanic and the rest on the West Coast

It's called rebalancing and one major difference is the seeking of alliances to make up for numbers and also the air sea integration

We are talking carriers, Amphibous assault ships, DDG and SSN we are talking big ticket items

That's why Japan, Aussies and South Korea are important partners for USA

The coming years will be very very exciting to watch!
 
Blackstone

Blackstone

Brigadier
Jeff Head said:
I am pretty sure that there will be 10 Type 056 this year, and that that run will continue. But we will have to wait and see.

I also think that a new frigate will be in the offing.

Type 052D will definitely continue, and the carrier builds will be occurring, though it will be a few years before they complete. I expect submarine construction will continue as well.

Will the PLAN build more logistical or amphibious type vessels? We will have to wait and see, but it is certainly not out of the question. They are certainly in need.

It is without question that aircraft production will continue and probably even increase, but one does not necessarily preclude the other.
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Do you suppose sometime in the next few years, PLAN might develop variants of the DF-21D for 052E, 055, or SSBN?
 
Blitzo

Blitzo

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
Blackstone said:
Do you suppose sometime in the next few years, PLAN might develop variants of the DF-21D for 052E, 055, or SSBN?
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I doubt it. Not only is there the danger of having a ship/sub DF-21D launch be mistaken as a nuke tipped IRBM, but also the entire ASHBM system relies on a host of C4ISR assets available only in the western pacific, and travelling beyond that would effectively make the weapons blind.

There is also the questionable thinking of whether putting such a big missile on board ships is a good idea and whether it is worth the dramatic design and development.
 
Jeff Head

Jeff Head

General
Registered Member
Blackstone said:
Do you suppose sometime in the next few years, PLAN might develop variants of the DF-21D for 052E, 055, or SSBN?
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Well, first of all, from my perspective, the PRC would have to prove that they have an effective weapon in the DF-21D in the first place...which they have never done to date.

If they ever did..then, no, definitely not for the surface combatant DDG and CG in my opinion. The weapons are too large and would require far too much structural beef, and therefore size and displacement, for them to be carried aboard those vessels in any effective numbers IMHO.

For an SSBN I suppose it may be possible, but if one were ever sucessfully developed and then deployed on SSBNs, and if other nations found out about it, you would be opening up your entire strategic deterent force to attack for tactical reasons.

Right now, the SSBNs are tracked as best as possible...but not agressively hunted short of nuclear war because they are recognized as a strategic deterent, and to sink them would cause great strategic consternation, and lead to potential retaliation at the nuclear level.

But, with a DF-21D capability aboard, that calculus would change. You would be announcing that you intend to use them at a non-strategic, tactical, area denial level. This would open every SSBN that could possible carry one to be hunted like any other attack or guided missile submarine.

So I do not expect the DF-21D weapon that the PRC is currently pursuing it to be a weapon loaded on their naval vessels. But that is just my read on it at this time.
 
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weig2000

Captain
Jeff Head said:
Well, first of all, from my perspective, the PRC would have to prove that they have an effective weapon in the DF-21D in the first place...which they have never done to date.

If they ever did..then, no, definitely not for the surface combatant DDG and CG in my opinion. The weapons are too large and would require far too much structural beef, and therefore size and displacement, for them to be carried aboard those vessels in any effective numbers IMHO.

For an SSBN I suppose it may be possible, but if one were ever sucessfully developed and then deployed on SSBNs, and if other nations found out about it, you would be opening up your entire strategic deterent force to attack for tactical reasons.

Right now, the SSBNs are tracked as best as possible...but not agressively hunted short of nuclear war because they are recognized as a strategic deterent, and to sink them would cause great strategic consternation, and lead to potential retaliation at the nuclear level.

But, with a DF-21D capability aboard, that calculus would change. You would be announcing that you intend to use them at a non-strategic, tactical, area denial level. This would open every SSBN that could possible carry one to be hunted like any other attack or guided missile submarine.

So I do not expect the DF-21D weapon that the PRC is currently pursuing it to be a weapon loaded on their naval vessels. But that is just my read on it at this time.
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That all makes sense. Good all around arguments.

I would also add that the DF-21D, even if it's operational now, has always been understood as an asymmetric weapon, a stop-gap measure within the reach of China's existing technologies or short-term development capabilities. It probably has a shelf-life of 15-20 years, before China fully develops a more balanced and full-fledged force structure, with more choices of platforms/weaponry to deal with carriers.

After that, China is likely to stop investing in such a specialist weapon with such a narrow purpose. And it is not exactly cheap if you consider all the support systems. That kind of investments would be better spent on more flexible platforms/systems.
 
J

jobjed

Captain
weig2000 said:
That all makes sense. Good all around arguments.

I would also add that the DF-21D, even if it's operational now, has always been understood as an asymmetric weapon, a stop-gap measure within the reach of China's existing technologies or short-term development capabilities. It probably has a shelf-life of 15-20 years, before China fully develops a more balanced and full-fledged force structure, with more choices of platforms/weaponry to deal with carriers.

After that, China is likely to stop investing in such a specialist weapon with such a narrow purpose. And it is not exactly cheap if you consider all the support systems. That kind of investments would be better spent on more flexible platforms/systems.
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I seriously doubt that China would already be phasing out the DF-21D within a time-frame as short as 20 years. As you said, the DF-21D is an asymmetric weapon meaning that China is only resorting to it because their navy is no match for the USN and they need a weapon system that compensates for that inferiority, at least within 3000km of the Chinese coastline.

With that being said, the only reason China would feel confident enough to phase out the DF-21D would be when their navy is no longer inferior to the USN, both quantitatively and qualitatively; that is certainly not going to happen in the next 20 years. As astonishing as the speed of the PLAN modernisation is, it will be pushing the boundaries of reality to think it's possible for China to build and amass a navy nearly as huge and advanced as the USN within 20 years. I have doubts that it can be done even after 50 years. With an inferior navy that's probably going to stay inferior for the foreseeable future, the Chinese need to rely on the DF-21D (or a similar weapon) if they wish to guarantee the absolute safety of the Chinese coastline from potential US or US-led attacks.

Hence, I believe the DF-21D (or something similar) will remain in service until China is confident of the superiority of their navy relative to the USN, which as I mentioned above, I believe is unlikely to happen for many decades to come.
 
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port_08

Junior Member
By mid 2020s, China military budget could reach USD 300 Billion and for that if their Navy can reach almost 1/3 the size of US Navy in terms of strength is good enough.

By 2050s China having 5 CVGB is then not that bad an achievement, matching 70% of US strength.

Then by end of this 21st Century if the Chinese Navy can be as large as US ones or exceed....is probable and a great achievement for them.
 
Jeff Head

Jeff Head

General
Registered Member
port_08 said:
By mid 2020s, China military budget could reach USD 300 Billion and for that if their Navy can reach almost 1/3 the size of US Navy in terms of strength is good enough.
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If the Chinese interests remain predominantly in the Western Pacific...this is true. But if they become world-wide in their interests as they grow and expand (which IMHO is likely) they will want to continue to grow.

port_08 said:
By 2050s China having 5 CVGB is then not that bad an achievement, matching 70% of US strength.
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In terms of carriers, that would be less than 50% of the US strength because the US plans to maintain 11 carriers through that period.
 
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