Rising Sea Dragon in Asia (PLAN) 2014 Update

port_08 said:

By mid 2020s, China military budget could reach USD 300 Billion and for that if their Navy can reach almost 1/3 the size of US Navy in terms of strength is good enough.

By 2050s China having 5 CVGB is then not that bad an achievement, matching 70% of US strength.

Then by end of this 21st Century if the Chinese Navy can be as large as US ones or exceed....is probable and a great achievement for them.

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Let's not continue to speculate on these things. Speculating 5 years down the road is hard enough let alone 30. And, let's hope that Chinese ilitary budget doesn't gro to 300 billion in 10 years, because that would mean a lot less money that could be spent else where.

tphuang said:

Let's not continue to speculate on these things. Speculating 5 years down the road is hard enough let alone 30. And, let's hope that Chinese ilitary budget doesn't gro to 300 billion in 10 years, because that would mean a lot less money that could be spent else where.

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OT
It is also dependent on what the dollar will do in the next ten to thirty years. I have no useful ideas.

tphuang said:

Let's not continue to speculate on these things. Speculating 5 years down the road is hard enough let alone 30. And, let's hope that Chinese ilitary budget doesn't gro to 300 billion in 10 years, because that would mean a lot less money that could be spent else where.

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Unfortunately it would be easy to predict if China economy continue growing or even stable at the current rate. Military expenditures even if China want to cap it to 100 BILLION is impossible. You have to take into account inflation rate, and its economic size. 300 BILLION within 10 years is very feasible and that is low side. 300 BILLION might not worth anything 10 years down the road if inflation taken into account, maybe just a carrier or two. (or three...)

Would China feel secure, if they spend with a budget like South Korea or Vietnam? Where else can China spend on? Diplomacy? or more Guns...which is safer to her you think? This is kind like a Prisoner Dilemma yes...

port_08 said:

Unfortunately it would be easy to predict if China economy continue growing or even stable at the current rateYou have to take into account inflation rate, and its economic size. 300 BILLION within 10 years is very feasible and that is low side.

Would China feel secure, if they spend with a budget like South Korea or Vietnam? Where else can China spend on? Diplomacy? or more Guns?

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Port_08, you are pretty new here. Some advise.

Tphuang is a Super Moderator here on the SD forum.

I think he was gently advising that we need to move on from this distant future economic projection topic and not continue to disuss it in further detail for the reasons he gave.

To avoid difficulties and moderation of the thread, let's just let it rest and continue about the current, and more near term advanement of the PLAN.

Thanks.

tphuang said:

Let's not continue to speculate on these things. Speculating 5 years down the road is hard enough let alone 30. And, let's hope that Chinese ilitary budget doesn't gro to 300 billion in 10 years, because that would mean a lot less money that could be spent else where.

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It's not completely clear how much China really spends on its military, but the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) estimates China's military spending at around 2% GDP (~$166 billion USD in 2012). If China's economy continues to grow at around 6-7% per year, then she could maintain 2% GDP spending and still reach $300 billion in ten years.



Average Asian military spending (% GDP) in 2012:

US 4.4%
Russia 4.4%
Singapore 3.6%
DPRK...???
ROK 2.7%
Pakistan 2.7%
India 2.5%
Vietnam 2.4%
Taiwan 2.3%
China 2%
Australia 1.7%
Philippines 1.2%
Japan 1%
Indonesia 0.8%

Blackstone said:

It's not completely clear how much China really spends on its military, but the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) estimates China's military spending at around 2% GDP (~$166 billion USD in 2012). If China's economy continues to grow at around 6-7% per year, then she could maintain 2% GDP spending and still reach $300 billion in ten years.

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Average Asian military spending (% GDP) in 2012:

US 4.4%
Russia 4.4%
Singapore 3.6%
DPRK...???
ROK 2.7%
Pakistan 2.7%
India 2.5%
Vietnam 2.4%
Taiwan 2.3%
China 2%
Australia 1.7%
Philippines 1.2%
Japan 1%
Indonesia 0.8%

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Chinese military spending has been growing faster (>10%) than GDP growth for last 20 years. If Chinese defence spending continue to grow at minimum double digit rates (10%), while Chinese GDP grows at 7.5% a year, Chinese absolute military spending match American defence spending in absolute terms by 2032, but not reach 4% of GDP until 2044.

If Chinese GDP growth rate levels off to 5% a year after 2020, then Chinese military spending wil match American defence spending the same year when Chinese GDP, as well as % of GDP spend on the military, will match that of US, in 2032.

chuck731 said:

Chinese military spending has been growing faster (>10%) than GDP growth for last 20 years. If Chinese defence spending continue to grow at minimum double digit rates (10%), while Chinese GDP grows at 7.5% a year, Chinese absolute military spending match American defence spending in absolute terms by 2032, but not reach 4% of GDP until 2044.

If Chinese GDP growth rate levels off to 5% a year after 2020, then Chinese military spending wil match American defence spending the same year when Chinese GDP, as well as % of GDP spend on the military, will match that of US, in 2032.

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I think looking at the amount of military spending, even as a percentage of GDP, is highly misleading and of little analytical value when it comes to combat effectiveness of that military.

First of all, we are all aware of the bloated Military-Industrial Complex in the USA. What we don't know much about is the state of a similar entity in China. How efficient is the Chinese version of the MIC? Is it 20% more efficient? 200%? Or is it actually less efficient? We simply don't know, so what value in comparing expenditure costs?

Secondly, the ratio between hardware costs and personnel costs must be wildly different from US to China. Chinese infantrymen earn a fraction the pay of a US G.I. Hardware, on the other hand, especially those China must procure from foreign sources, have a cost that is more on par with those of the US.

Third, high military spending does not necessarily translate into a more effective military. Corruption and cronyism will consume funds without raising effectiveness, quite likely even lowering it. Although we can speculate, we don't have any actual data on the comparative amount of corruption between American and Chinese MICs.

chuck731 said:

Chinese military spending has been growing faster (>10%) than GDP growth for last 20 years. If Chinese defence spending continue to grow at minimum double digit rates (10%), while Chinese GDP grows at 7.5% a year, Chinese absolute military spending match American defence spending in absolute terms by 2032, but not reach 4% of GDP until 2044.

If Chinese GDP growth rate levels off to 5% a year after 2020, then Chinese military spending wil match American defence spending the same year when Chinese GDP, as well as % of GDP spend on the military, will match that of US, in 2032.

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China's official military budget is only 1,4% of GDP but if you add the black part of the budget, there are a lot of things that either directly or indirectly benefit the PLA in China that's not part of the official budget like the space program for example. Then you come to a figure of at most 2% of GDP or even less.

As for the growth rate of the military budget. That's based on nominal GDP growth not real GDP growth. Real GDP growth is nominal growth minus the inflation. So the nominal GDP growth is higher then the real growth. And then you have to take into account that China's currency has been appreciating against the dollar in recent years. That also helps to skew the numbers. In fact China's military budget is growing in line with GDP growth. More than that the official military budget has fallen from 1,7% of GDP a decade earlier to 1,4% now.

China only spend about 30% of its budget on salary for personnel lower then most other countries that spends about 40% to 45% on salary for their personnel. But do we even know how big the PLA actually is today? According to the white paper from 2006 the PLA is a 2,3 million man strong military. The latest white paper claim a military of only about 1,5 million personnel but that exclude a lot of units like the second artillery corps and others. But we also know that in the past 8 years China has introduced more modern weapons but also has reduced both the size and number of units. So does anyone here know how big the PLA is ?

jobjed said:

I seriously doubt that China would already be phasing out the DF-21D within a time-frame as short as 20 years. As you said, the DF-21D is an asymmetric weapon meaning that China is only resorting to it because their navy is no match for the USN and they need a weapon system that compensates for that inferiority, at least within 3000km of the Chinese coastline.

With that being said, the only reason China would feel confident enough to phase out the DF-21D would be when their navy is no longer inferior to the USN, both quantitatively and qualitatively; that is certainly not going to happen in the next 20 years. As astonishing as the speed of the PLAN modernisation is, it will be pushing the boundaries of reality to think it's possible for China to build and amass a navy nearly as huge and advanced as the USN within 20 years. I have doubts that it can be done even after 50 years. With an inferior navy that's probably going to stay inferior for the foreseeable future, the Chinese need to rely on the DF-21D (or a similar weapon) if they wish to guarantee the absolute safety of the Chinese coastline from potential US or US-led attacks.

Hence, I believe the DF-21D (or something similar) will remain in service until China is confident of the superiority of their navy relative to the USN, which as I mentioned above, I believe is unlikely to happen for many decades to come.

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I think you're making an assumption here that in order to phase out a weaponry like DF-21D, China will need a navy as large and as powerful as USN. That's certainly not what I meant or agree with.

DF-21D is a A2/AD weapon/platform whose purpose is to push USN's CVGs farther out from Chinese shores, say 1,000 - 1,500 km away, such that the tactical aircraft on these carriers are not an effective threat to China should a conflict between US and China occurs around China's peripherals. DF-21D is not a global domination platform, not by any stretch of imagination.

In 20 years, it is reasonable to expect China would fare a carrier force of 4 - 6 carriers. With both land and carrier-based aircraft, it's not unreasonable to expect China will achieve some measure of air superiority around her, say 1,000 - 1,500 km away from the mainland. That, plus the improvement of ASW capabilities and all kinds of ballistic and cruise missiles and the full-fledged space based C4ISR assets, will go a long way to feel relatively secured around her peripherals. This is far from faring a navy matching USN in quantity and quality, but that wouldn't be necessary. The curse of geography, if you will. These kind of force structure is much more preferable than investing in a platform like DF-21D, given the fixed pool of funding. And this was my point.

It is easy to get off-track from this point of discussion and wade into the US China global rivalry. I think it's far from per-ordained that US and China would end up in a fierce struggle for global domination. It would be a tragedy of gigantic proportion for both nations and the world should that happen. In fact, today China and US have more overlapping interest globally than conflict. The competition right now is really limited to Western Pacific. Both Americans and Chinese are pragmatic people, I'm cautiously optimistic they will, eventually, find a way co-exist with each other. Because it's simply in both countries' best interest. But that is another topic.

chuck731 said:

Chinese military spending has been growing faster (>10%) than GDP growth for last 20 years.

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Actually no. The numbers quoted in the press are somewhat misleading. The GDP growth is reported net of inflation, but the military budget is report as is. If both were adjusted to inflation, then both are growing at similar rates. It can also be seen from the fact that the military budget has always stayed near 1.5-2 % of GDP over the years, actual estimation depending on the source.

If Chinese defence spending continue to grow at minimum double digit rates (10%), while Chinese GDP grows at 7.5% a year, Chinese absolute military spending match American defence spending in absolute terms by 2032, but not reach 4% of GDP until 2044.

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As mentioned earlier, the military budget has always been growing at rates similar to GDP growth, if both were consistently treated with inflation. Then it will be about 1.5-2 % of GDP at whichever moment, until China decides to change the allocation of funds.