Resource War/Financial Woes

bladerunner said:

I think your logic is flawed in suggesting that China won't suffer a economic setback based on the failure of past predictions to eventuate. BUt ask yourself was it luck or good management that China escaped the worst of the recent financial meltdown or it happened when it did. If this meltdown was to have happened a few yrs later Chinese banks might well have been involved in the sub prime mess as it looked look for investments that provided a better return than US bonds etc.. Also keep in mind China's Sovereign fund has had a less than auspicious start. loosing more than a third of its net worth in under a year.
Also tthe Climbing oil prices of $150 plus and climbing was having an effect on the thinking of the China affect when it came to outsourcing.
I only suggested things that might happen if unfriendly identities were able to short the chinese market, but seeing its been established that Unless China changes the way the current stock market functions, it's unlikely to happen.
I do however think the chinese economy will experience setbacks from time to time, but nothing like a total collapse. However its rather interesting that you attach little importance to the stock market. I do because it's the worlds second biggest by value and at $3.21 Trillion, theres a lot of mom and pops money in there.

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(Bloomberg) -- China overtook Japan as the world’s second-largest stock market by value for the first time in 18 months, after government stimulus spending and record bank lending boosted share prices this year. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.4 percent yesterday, sending the value of China’s domestic stock market to $3.21 trillion, compared with Japan’s $3.20 trillion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. ...........

Note how Blomberg states that bank lending has boosted the share price, But what if the price drops and the people who borrowed it cant pay the bank back?
As Autumn Child pointed out the last time the shares dropped , most of the money was cash not borrowed, this time Bloomberg is claiming a large portion is borrowed.
Wen has also commented on this fact and has stated it to be a cause for concern that borrowed money was being used for the wrong purposes.

IT might be only a fleabite in the over all scheme of things but if the govt has to recapatilise the banks, its then using money that could be easily spent in other areas that need urgent attention

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shake it around abit and you could cause problems

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bladerunner said:

IF YOU ARE UNDER THE IMPRESSION THAT I SAID CHINA WILL HAVE A TOTAL COLLAPSE, I NEVER SAID THAT AT ALL.(Just reall all my posts on this thread) However it seems to be quite common to associate a serious setback with a collapse which i think is fair enough but I think some people are confusing a collapse with total collapse> what Im alluding to is what you have just posted in a very well expressed manner.

THe last few posts have been a response to Chanos claim that he was capable of shorting the Chinese Market, but all that is now hypothetical as it is impossible for to take a position in the chinese market to achieve his goal.

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bladerunner said:

However its rather interesting that you attach little importance to the stock market. I do because it's the worlds second biggest by value and at $3.21 Trillion, theres a lot of mom and pops money in there.

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AssassinsMace said:

I also told him that the goal of oil companies wasn't to lower prices but to get that oil and sell it on the world market at those high prices.

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AssassinsMace said:

You're doing the same thing. You're trying change the conditions from the original. Everything you said if this or that happens, China's economy would falter. What you pointed out has been said for years. Stock value... bad loan accumulation in the banking system... etc...

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BECAUSE THEY ARE STILL RELEVANT IN CHINAS ECONOMY : THEY STILL COULD BE THE ACHILLIES HEEL IN CHINAS ECONOMY IF CHINA DOESNT SORT THEM OUT>

Then you said...



The world financial collapse of the Western markets that China is dependent on for its exports isn't shaking it around abit? All those things you said would happen if you "shake it around a bit" would be dire to China. Since the Western finanacial meltdown isn't considered shaking it around a bit to you. What do you consider something more serious because so far all your micro examples in any reasonable sense doesn't even compare to the magnitude of Western financial meltdown last year. Ironic since again I have to point out how the likes of Chanos and Chang all believe China is dependent on the West for everything. So how much shaking does it take. Maybe the world literally exploding? Then Chanos and Chang can gloat at the collapse of China.

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Engineer said:

That depends on your definition of a "stock market". I view it as a casino precisely because there are a lot of housewives and retired people betting their money in there.

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If thats the way you would prefer it to remain, I prefer the govt to step in and take tha wild west out of it, and then it could really help to propel Chinas growth. Still rather strange wouldnt you say when in the space of 2weeks weve had 2 opposite opinions by talented investors w, who given the chance are prepared to stake big money in support of their views

So perhaps China itself is one big casino

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............Mr Bolton shot to fame for managing the Fidelity Special Situations fund since 1979, turning every £1,000 invested at its launch to £148,200 over the 28 years that he ran the fund, according to Fidelity.
The 59-year-old is not the first high-profile British executive to announce plans to move closer to China in recent months. HSBC said in September that its chief executive, Michael Geoghegan, was moving to Hong Kong from London.
"It's not just Bolton, nobody can afford to ignore China," said Xav Feng, head of China and Taiwan research at Lipper
"It is still a very closed market. But in future we may see a floating yuan and more liberalisation which is why companies such as Fidelity are becoming more focused on asset management in China."
Mr Bolton declined to divulge details about the new portfolio, saying simply that the fund managed by him would take bigger active bets than Fidelity's existing China-focused funds.
Fidelity International, which has been investing in China for 16 years, has $210.1bn in assets under management globally and around $4.5bn in its China funds.
Fidelity International is an affiliate of Boston-based Fidelity Investments, the world's biggest mutual fund company.
Mr Bolton said his preference for privately-owned Chinese companies over state-owned enterprises was slowly changing as most recent scandals had involved private companies while government-controlled companies had access to the best deals.
He said the "bargain stage" for Chinese stocks was over but average valuations of Chinese companies were still in line with their long term averages.
"It would have been lovely if we could have launched this fund earlier this year," he said.
Mr Bolton said he expected long-term currency and stock market gains in China and a year into a bull market may be too early to start fretting about asset bubbles in the economy.
"I believe in my lifetime, China will become the second-largest stock market in the world," he said.
Mr Bolton said he was not a linguist and may not attempt to learn Chinese after he moves to Hong Kong.
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bladerunner said:

MY use of shaking things about was made in reference to Chanos.after he has taken a short position on Chinese shares. It makes common sense to try to create some doubt in the markets so i guess for chanos, it would be whatever it takes.

I did not say China would have a total collapse. In most instances i Used the word COULD and the couple of occassions i mused word would was in relation to something relatively minor.
You appear to automatically label someone as a Chang supporter just because they posted an article that reflects some of his hallmarks===WRONG.

You are forgetting The debate is not about Chang and his rants but what sort of damage chanosand co could inflict on Chinas economy should they have been able to short the market. and that is where we differ, but i dont want to go over it again.

NB I dont expect China and never have, to be the epicenter of a 1930s type depression, because past experience has taught the modern economist on how to avoid or minimisse the effects of a major setback, but that doesnt mean China wont experience any major or minor setbacks from time to time as they go hand in with a capitilistic economy.

You scoffed at my egs of sebacks as rather minor but look what a piddly interest default on $80 billion by Dubai has done to the world financial markets.

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AssassinsMace said:

Chanos is going by what Gordan Chang is putting out there and he's continually predicting China's collapse. So if you're following what Chanos has to say then you associate yourself with th

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Thats very strange logic, at college we were taught to always consider both points of views, . By the way , Im a keen follower of Anthony Bolton. I posted an article about him in p66. Now hes a guy thats the total opposite to Chanos/Chang now if revelation confuses you, your explanation
certainly clears things up with me as regards yourself
i.

So is this the "shaking around a bit" you're talking about or are you actually comparing Dubai being the same as China? [

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/QUOTE]

My shaking around has nothing to do with Dubai, In this case with Chanos but using all kinds of avenues to promote the belief that China is one big Con job like "enron" which he stated in his reported interview.( by the way this not my belief if you start thinking like that)

I hope you're not using what's happening in Dubai as you being right?

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I using Dubai to show you how risk adverse/ jumpy/skittish the world financial institutions have become, from this meltdownare, to react they way to a piddly $84billion.

Ill bet you dollars to donuts that Chanos would be thinking how he could go about getting such a reaction as regards China

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Thats very strange logic, at college we were taught to always consider both points of views, . By the way , Im a keen follower of Anthony Bolton. I posted an article about him in p66. Now hes a guy thats the total opposite to Chanos/Chang now if revelation confuses you, your explanation
certainly clears things up with me as regards yourself
i.

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My shaking around has nothing to do with Dubai, In this case with Chanos but using all kinds of avenues to promote the belief that China is one big Con job like "enron" which he stated in his reported interview.( by the way this not my belief if you start thinking like that)

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I using Dubai to show you how risk adverse/ jumpy/skittish the world financial institutions have become, from this meltdownare, to react they way to a piddly $84billion.

Ill bet you dollars to donuts that Chanos would be thinking how he could go about getting such a reaction as regards China

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AssassinsMace said:

Funny how you've pointed out nothing but Chanos and Chang's arguments in here.

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THen you either have a difficulty with retention or you are selective with what you choose to read , because my post 66 has talks about a person who is the complete opposite to chang

Aren't you promoting the argument of China collapsing if you're comparing China to Enron?

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No/ Chanos was saying they both relied on confidence

Sounds like you're showing your bias by looking at China as a con job when you don't see this financial meltdown as not one giant con job from Western financial institutions.

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You are approching the whole debate with a blinkered vision and merely drawing your attention to what Chanos said.



Interesting how when Soros did what he did to Southeast Asia the result was near immediate.

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Sounds like no one is listening to Chanos but wishful thinkers.

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If it walks like a duck...

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