Renminbi (RMB)/Yuan Appreciation & Internationalization

tphuang

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The land routes through Russia, including rail freight, are part of the One Belt routes of the One Belt One Road initiative.
The Silk Road Fund invested into Yamal LNG and SIBUR holdings in Russia.
Russia has been part of the initiative since pretty much the beginning.
yet Russia does not consider itself a BRI country. Nor does China count Russia as a BRI country in its tabulation. That's the more important part I wanted to address. How many other countries are accumulating RMB bond. We know Russia is, but how widely is it spreading in the global south?
 

taxiya

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yet Russia does not consider itself a BRI country. Nor does China count Russia as a BRI country in its tabulation. That's the more important part I wanted to address. How many other countries are accumulating RMB bond. We know Russia is, but how widely is it spreading in the global south?
Regarding Russia it is not a clear cut. This site
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does count Russia in BRI. The site is government site. On the other hand, the agreement is "关于丝绸之路经济带建设和欧亚经济联盟建设对接合作的联合声明“ ”BRI and Eurasian Economy Union synergy and cooperation". This means cooperation of two entities rather than merging into one.

This means that China is practically treating cooperation with Russia in the framework of BRI while officially (on paper) maintaining difference due to Russian hesitation. Also it is natural to understand that even if the two merged, nobody is going to dissolve one for the other.

IMO, for all purpose and intent of China Russia is part of BRI. But for whatever other reason, one can exclude Russia from BRI.
 
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horse

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pretty sure Russia is not a Belt and road country, even though China does plenty of investment there

I am pretty sure Russia is a big player in the BRI.

Back in the day, after the Soviet Union dissolved, there were these stories about all these Russians, riding the train, all the way to China, buying all sort of stuffs, and then riding the train back to Russia with all those goods.

Along their ride, they would get off at a station, and sell to other ex-Soviets, what they bought in China. That was their consumer goods supply chain, to use today's vocabulary.

Pepe Escobar the journalist wrote a couple of articles about that, as he was a avid traveller who went everywhere.

The Russians were doing the BRI thing, even before there was a BRI.

:oops::D
 

tphuang

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This is another step forward in de-dollarization. Remember everyone, things don't happen over night. These are all steps in the right direction, but it will still take time for companies to actually find ways to update their contracts to price in different currencies.

Also China needs to push harder for use RMB in local settlement with all the Latin American countries that it gets along with (which is a long list by now)
 

tphuang

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from other thread. Indonesia is looking to ramp up de-dollarization
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here is an interesting look at pros and cons
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"The weakness in this system is the difficulty of using local currency to pay ships operating in cross-border trade routes," the Celios Director said.

Bhima assessed that foreign ships want to receive US dollars and not be paid with rupiah quotations. This can be cumbersome as 90 percent of ships for imports and exports are vessels from foreign countries.

"Another problem arises when international cooperation, for example in grants, loans remains predominantly in US dollars. So the return of principal installments and interest payments also continues to suck up US dollars," said Bhima.

Bhima pointed out the lack of domination in transactions using local currency settlement with Thailand only amounts to 4 percent of total exports. This is similar to other countries.

"If the portion can increase to 30 percent of total exports, it can be an effective rupiah stabilization policy," said Bhima.

Finally, he assessed that Indonesia must begin to be involved in the BRIC discussion (forum of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) despite Indonesia not being included in the group. The discussion is related to joint currency cooperation. "Every de-dollarization effort must be supported," he said.
looks to me that NDB loans + having a Chinese fleet willing to accept local currencies are keys to de-dollarization
 

xlitter

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tphuang

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Looks like Russia wants to settle all energy trades in rouble or Yuan. We've already talked about this, but shifting to Yuan is the most realistic options off USD and EUR, especially for countries that are out of USD.
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According to the Russian central bank, the yuan's share in Russia's import settlements in 2022 jumped to 23% from 4%.
Note this part, it's import for Russia to also be paying for its imports from China in Yuan, so that it can get rid of the Yuan it's taking in on the sale of oil and gas.

I will give an example, looks like Argentina ran out of dollars today. If it wants to buy oil next, what can it do? well, it can use its currency swap with China to buy oil from Russia. Seems logical to me. That seems to be only way it can avoid full meltdown on its currency, which has already declined so much

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Demand for the Chinese yuan is growing in Russia, the CEO of Sberbank
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said on Friday, adding that the lender has made use of central bank currency swaps providing yuan liquidity.
The other part is Russians banks using Yuan. Right now, Russia is a case study for fully departing Western led financial and trade system. Once Russia figures out how to use Yuan as reserve currency, it will be a lot easier for countries like Brazil and Saudi Arabia and Indonesia to do the same, even if they only use Yuan and CIPS for some of their trading. But the more Yuan can become a currency that other countries, the better it is for China.
 
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