PLAN Type 035/039/091/092 Submarine Thread
- Thread starter crobato
- Start date
Re: PLAN submarines Thread II
can you tell us how it looks different, so I don't have to compare side by side pictures to figure out?
The 404 looks different
can you tell us how it looks different, so I don't have to compare side by side pictures to figure out?
Re: PLAN submarines Thread II
so you are still linking to the hsh pictures when you should be attaching them. For comparison sake, I'm not going to delete your post, but I did delete one on the other thread. Now, why don't you go through the parts where you think changed. I see some, but think you posted it originally, feel free to go through with your changes.
This Was An Old 404 Photo
so you are still linking to the hsh pictures when you should be attaching them. For comparison sake, I'm not going to delete your post, but I did delete one on the other thread. Now, why don't you go through the parts where you think changed. I see some, but think you posted it originally, feel free to go through with your changes.
Re: PLAN submarines Thread II
These are submarines parked outside of Shanghai. I really don't know what's the situation with this submarine base nor am I sure that these are all taken recently. It's right next to the 22nd flotilla base at Ningbo, but that one is all Song submarines and these are not.
One of the earlier Yuan submarines
a song submarine
The 5th Yuan submarine
These are submarines parked outside of Shanghai. I really don't know what's the situation with this submarine base nor am I sure that these are all taken recently. It's right next to the 22nd flotilla base at Ningbo, but that one is all Song submarines and these are not.
One of the earlier Yuan submarines
a song submarine
The 5th Yuan submarine
franco-russe
Senior Member
Re: PLAN submarines Thread II
All of these photos are from Shanghai-Wusong naval base, which newconstruction submarines from Wuhan regularly visit on their way to their destination.
The 22nd Submarine Flotilla at Daxiedao definitely had at least three YUAN class submarines as early as January 2009. You posted a photo showing these with a SONG in post # 359. A later photo, in September 2009, also shows three YUAN plus SONG 320 (with the characteristic sail), making it certain that is from Daxiedao. I think you can see four YUAN in the GE image of Daxiedao, but I find it a bit difficult to distinguish SONG and YUAN.
In you otherwise excellent article on China’s conventional submarine fleet you suggest that a new submarine base with YUAN has been established in the East Sea Fleet, illustrating the thesis with the photo mentioned above. As I have argued, this photo is from Daxiedao (or Zhoushan, if you prefer).
It is also well known that YUAN Hull 1 pennant number 330 has been stationed with the 32nd Submarine Flotilla since October 2006. So there were definitely four YUAN in service at the beginning of 2009.
If the modified YUAN now seen at Shanghai is Hull 5, it would mean that Wuhan has been delivering no submarines in 2009-2010, until it suddenly, in a burst of renewed energy, launches no less than three submarines, including the new class, in 2010? I find it difficult to believe this, I think that there is sufficient evidence that they have regularly delivered two annually, which would make the first modified unit Hull 9.
All of these photos are from Shanghai-Wusong naval base, which newconstruction submarines from Wuhan regularly visit on their way to their destination.
The 22nd Submarine Flotilla at Daxiedao definitely had at least three YUAN class submarines as early as January 2009. You posted a photo showing these with a SONG in post # 359. A later photo, in September 2009, also shows three YUAN plus SONG 320 (with the characteristic sail), making it certain that is from Daxiedao. I think you can see four YUAN in the GE image of Daxiedao, but I find it a bit difficult to distinguish SONG and YUAN.
In you otherwise excellent article on China’s conventional submarine fleet you suggest that a new submarine base with YUAN has been established in the East Sea Fleet, illustrating the thesis with the photo mentioned above. As I have argued, this photo is from Daxiedao (or Zhoushan, if you prefer).
It is also well known that YUAN Hull 1 pennant number 330 has been stationed with the 32nd Submarine Flotilla since October 2006. So there were definitely four YUAN in service at the beginning of 2009.
If the modified YUAN now seen at Shanghai is Hull 5, it would mean that Wuhan has been delivering no submarines in 2009-2010, until it suddenly, in a burst of renewed energy, launches no less than three submarines, including the new class, in 2010? I find it difficult to believe this, I think that there is sufficient evidence that they have regularly delivered two annually, which would make the first modified unit Hull 9.
sealordlawrence
Junior Member
Re: PLAN submarines Thread II
franco-russe,
Just to clarify, are you suggesting that the first modified Yuan was Hull 9, which would mean that the Yuan class boats now at Wuhan are Hulls 10 and 11?
It is an interesting hypothesis though I would caution two things. Firstly we dont seem to have the photographic evidence to back it up, and secondly pauses and surges are not uncommon in PLAN shipbuilding.
franco-russe,
Just to clarify, are you suggesting that the first modified Yuan was Hull 9, which would mean that the Yuan class boats now at Wuhan are Hulls 10 and 11?
It is an interesting hypothesis though I would caution two things. Firstly we dont seem to have the photographic evidence to back it up, and secondly pauses and surges are not uncommon in PLAN shipbuilding.
franco-russe
Senior Member
Re: PLAN submarines Thread II
I think that the recent photo from Wuhan showing three submarines actually predates the arrival of the first modified unit at Wusong about 1 January, meaning that the two YUAN are Hulls 9 and 10. I think it is unconceivable that Wuhan launched four submarines in 2010.
I am aware of construction pauses in general, but not at Wuhan, which has built at least one submarine every year since 1986, and about two annually since 1999. In the twelve years from 1999 to 2010, I make it 4 MING (035B), 12 SONG (four more built by Jiangnan) and 9 YUAN, or a total of 25 (or exactly 24, if the modified YUAN is counted as a 2011 delivery).
The problem is that so many YUAN cannot be located. Daxiedao is designed to support 12 submarines (6 submarine piers for two submarines each), so 4 YUAN is provided for. Logically, the nwxt units should have gone to Yulin, following YUAN 330, but Yulin cannot accommodate more than 10 submarines at most. In addition, Yulin is fairly well covered, and there is in fact no recent picture of a YUAN there.
The dark horse is Xiachuandao, home of the 72nd Submarine Flotilla, of which coverage is non-existent (GE image is very old). There was an article on the South Sea Fleet a couple of years ago which mentioned a new submarine flotilla, erroneously identified as the 52nd, which was supposed to be made up of Type 035 and 039 submarines – the latter could possibly be 039A.
I think that the recent photo from Wuhan showing three submarines actually predates the arrival of the first modified unit at Wusong about 1 January, meaning that the two YUAN are Hulls 9 and 10. I think it is unconceivable that Wuhan launched four submarines in 2010.
I am aware of construction pauses in general, but not at Wuhan, which has built at least one submarine every year since 1986, and about two annually since 1999. In the twelve years from 1999 to 2010, I make it 4 MING (035B), 12 SONG (four more built by Jiangnan) and 9 YUAN, or a total of 25 (or exactly 24, if the modified YUAN is counted as a 2011 delivery).
The problem is that so many YUAN cannot be located. Daxiedao is designed to support 12 submarines (6 submarine piers for two submarines each), so 4 YUAN is provided for. Logically, the nwxt units should have gone to Yulin, following YUAN 330, but Yulin cannot accommodate more than 10 submarines at most. In addition, Yulin is fairly well covered, and there is in fact no recent picture of a YUAN there.
The dark horse is Xiachuandao, home of the 72nd Submarine Flotilla, of which coverage is non-existent (GE image is very old). There was an article on the South Sea Fleet a couple of years ago which mentioned a new submarine flotilla, erroneously identified as the 52nd, which was supposed to be made up of Type 035 and 039 submarines – the latter could possibly be 039A.
sealordlawrence
Junior Member
Re: PLAN submarines Thread II
Counting PLAN submarines is something of an art rather than a science. I have yet to see a definitive number for the Song class, estimations appear to run between 13 and 16 and I am sure you saw me and tphuang's earlier discussion regarding SSN's. The only certainty seems to be that there are 12 Kilos.
What is also clear is that there have been significant recent developments, both modified Yuan class boats and the new larger SSK. I think it is certain to state that the PLAN now has in excess of 30 modern SSK's (to be kind to the Song class), if your hypothesis is correct the PLAN would now have 39 modern SSK's including those still at Wuhan.
This is the most optimistic assessment yet in its assumption of 16 Songs and 10 Yuans. the lowest plausible number to me is 33 based on 7 Yuan class and 13 Song. 6 Yuan is an outside possibility and not one I consider likely at this time.
Re Google Earth: One needs to be very careful how this is used when counting ships/submarines. There is always a chance that one is seeing the same vessel twice and it is difficult to distinguish between inactive/training/decom vessels and those on active duty.
Counting PLAN submarines is something of an art rather than a science. I have yet to see a definitive number for the Song class, estimations appear to run between 13 and 16 and I am sure you saw me and tphuang's earlier discussion regarding SSN's. The only certainty seems to be that there are 12 Kilos.
What is also clear is that there have been significant recent developments, both modified Yuan class boats and the new larger SSK. I think it is certain to state that the PLAN now has in excess of 30 modern SSK's (to be kind to the Song class), if your hypothesis is correct the PLAN would now have 39 modern SSK's including those still at Wuhan.
This is the most optimistic assessment yet in its assumption of 16 Songs and 10 Yuans. the lowest plausible number to me is 33 based on 7 Yuan class and 13 Song. 6 Yuan is an outside possibility and not one I consider likely at this time.
Re Google Earth: One needs to be very careful how this is used when counting ships/submarines. There is always a chance that one is seeing the same vessel twice and it is difficult to distinguish between inactive/training/decom vessels and those on active duty.
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