Re: PLAN submarines Thread II
Thats not the point. China wants to have the nuclear "triad"-land, sea, air launched nuclear platforms. The 094, and SSBNs in general, are the most important part of the triad, because they provide unprecedented first and second strike capability.
The 094 is the ultimate insurance, because if someone nukes China, even if only one 094 survives (which is likely because it is quiet and can simply find a "hole in the ocean" and hide) that single sub still holds enough firepower to kill the majority of the enemy's population.
An 094 is also an excellent first strike asset, because it has the ability to pop up of the enemy's coast, drastically cutting the flight times of its missles to their targets, giving the enemy less time to react and retaliate.
A DF-31A can serve as a good second strike asset because it is road mobile, but an SSBN can hide like nothing else on the planet. Furthermore a DF-31A isn't very useful in first strikes role.
the 094 has never made a deterrent patrol.
the recent incidents near china coast really implies that the USN are mapping the seabed so that their subs may operate and watch continously PLAN sub bases. What makes you believe that even one (one generation-tech behind) 094 can escape modern USN submarines ??
leaving port is already hard, imagine passing the USN ASW pacific network to get close to the US coast...
Besides china doesnt have the capacity for a nuclear first-strike capability against the USA. Not even by a long shot. USA has hundreds of ICBM and many SLBM. How many missiles China have that can reach the continental USA?? about 20 DF-5 silo-based icbm, 20 DF-31 mobile ICBM, 3 SSBN 094 submarines...
Sorry, but china can only hope for a 2nd-strike nuclear deterrent. For that it needs mobile ICBM, at least 200 of them. China really should look more into its nuclear forces. Just like in Russia, they are in reality the only weapon that can keep the USA military at bay, not their conventional forces which in terms of quantitiy and quality, cant go up against USA armed forces. Maybe 200 are unfeasible but it should create at least an 100 mobile ICBM force (replacing DF-4 and DF-5 etc)
the idea is deterrence...there is no way this is gonna play out in the real scenario. in a perfect world the US can destroy all of China's missile silos before 094 and DF-31A came along...but that doesnt mean China didnt have effective deterrence becase what if you miss just one? and one is more than enough.
094 and DF-31A are mobile, not missile silos
what can you do with only one missile???? you can destroy one enemy city, and the enemy can obliterate your civilization. You wont even consider using that missile, instead you will surrender unconditionaly...