Chinese Navy: by 2020, it is likely that the Chinese Navy will retire its initial two 905 class AORs, but it will also commission the last three 903A AORs (possibly as early as 2017) to make a complete class of 2 x 20,500 ton 903 AORs and 6 x 23,000 ton 903/A AORs. The single 908 class AOR of 37,000 tons will remain in service. The single 901 class AOE will likely be followed by at least one sister ship, which, if launched in 2016, will likely be quite capable of being commissioned well before 2020. Thus, it is reasonable to estimate the Chinese Navy will likely have 2 x 45,000+ ton 901 class AOEs in service by 2020 at the minimum.
Therefore, a conservative estimate of the Chinese Navy’s commissioned replenishment fleet in 2020: 2 x 20,500 ton 903 AORs + 6 x 23,000 ton 903A AORs + 1 x 37,000 ton 908 AOR + 2 x 45,000+ ton 901 AOEs = 306,000 tons
However, it is also possible that the Chinese Navy may commission additional construction of 903As and 901s greater than the above estimate, and based on previous construction rate, a higher estimate of a commissioned replenishment fleet in 2020 is: 2 x 20,500 ton 903 AORs + 10 x 23,000 ton AORs + 1 x 37,000 ton 903 AOR + 4 x 45,000+ ton 901 AOEs = 488,000 tons