PLAN Carrier Strike Group and Airwing

Re: Ideal chinese carrier thread

joshuatree said:

If the Varyag is available for training for the next 3-4 years, why can't she have multiple air wings to rotate and train? Then, when the two indigenous carriers are available, you already have air wings standing by. And yes, the effectiveness equation is another matter.

Click to expand...

If the Varyag is indeed ready and used heavilyy to train air wings...then they may be able to get the two new carriers operational by 2017 at the earliest IMHO with limited effectiveness as regards going up against a US or UK carrier, but clearly exceeding anything else locally in the region..

I do not believe they will build two carriers from scratch in five years. The US and other countries with far more expertise take 6-7 byears simply to build them.

We shall see.

But if they start building in 2010, then it will most likely be at least 2016 before they are completed building.

Even if an air wing is ready, it will take 1-2 years to commission the carrier with all of its systems and operations being tested in preparation for commissioning. I'd say maybe 2017, more likely 2018...but that's just my opinion.

The Varyag on the other hand could be ready by 2012-2013 if they finish her this year.

Re: Ideal chinese carrier thread

Jeff Head said:

If the Varyag is indeed ready and used heavilyy to train air wings...then they may be able to get the two new carriers operational by 2017 at the earliest IMHO with limited effectiveness as regards going up against a US or UK carrier, but clearly exceeding anything else locally in the region..

I do not believe they will build two carriers from scratch in five years. The US and other countries with far more expertise take 6-7 byears simply to build them.

We shall see.

But if they start building in 2010, then it will most likely be at least 2016 before they are completed building.

Even if an air wing is ready, it will take 1-2 years to commission the carrier with all of its systems and operations being tested in preparation for commissioning. I'd say maybe 2017, more likely 2018...but that's just my opinion.

The Varyag on the other hand could be ready by 2012-2013 if they finish her this year.

Click to expand...

I agree with you that 2015 is a very ambitious timeline, but its possible they will postpone it, once the project is further along, and it is also possible that a lot of prep work has been conducted in secret. The PLAN is notoriously hush-hush about large projects like this, look at the 094.

By the way nice to hear from you Jeff. If any news would bring out some of the members we haven't heard from in a while this would be it.

Re: Ideal chinese carrier thread

Jeff Head said:

If the Varyag is indeed ready and used heavilyy to train air wings...then they may be able to get the two new carriers operational by 2017 at the earliest IMHO with limited effectiveness as regards going up against a US or UK carrier, but clearly exceeding anything else locally in the region..

I do not believe they will build two carriers from scratch in five years. The US and other countries with far more expertise take 6-7 byears simply to build them.

We shall see.

But if they start building in 2010, then it will most likely be at least 2016 before they are completed building.

Even if an air wing is ready, it will take 1-2 years to commission the carrier with all of its systems and operations being tested in preparation for commissioning. I'd say maybe 2017, more likely 2018...but that's just my opinion.

The Varyag on the other hand could be ready by 2012-2013 if they finish her this year.

Click to expand...

I agree with you that 2015 is a very ambitious timeline, but its possible they will postpone it, once the project is further along, and it is also possible that a lot of prep work has been conducted in secret. The PLAN is notoriously hush-hush about large projects like this, look at the 094.

By the way nice to hear from you Jeff. If any news would bring out some of the members we haven't heard from in a while this would be it.

Re: Ideal chinese carrier thread

Jeff Head said:

If the Varyag is indeed ready and used heavilyy to train air wings...then they may be able to get the two new carriers operational by 2017 at the earliest IMHO with limited effectiveness as regards going up against a US or UK carrier, but clearly exceeding anything else locally in the region..

I do not believe they will build two carriers from scratch in five years. The US and other countries with far more expertise take 6-7 byears simply to build them.

We shall see.

But if they start building in 2010, then it will most likely be at least 2016 before they are completed building.

Even if an air wing is ready, it will take 1-2 years to commission the carrier with all of its systems and operations being tested in preparation for commissioning. I'd say maybe 2017, more likely 2018...but that's just my opinion.

The Varyag on the other hand could be ready by 2012-2013 if they finish her this year.

Click to expand...

I agree with you that 2015 is a very ambitious timeline, but its possible they will postpone it, once the project is further along, and it is also possible that a lot of prep work has been conducted in secret. The PLAN is notoriously hush-hush about large projects like this, look at the 094.

By the way nice to hear from you Jeff. If any news would bring out some of the members we haven't heard from in a while this would be it.

Re: Ideal chinese carrier thread

Finn McCool said:

I agree with you that 2015 is a very ambitious timeline, but its possible they will postpone it, once the project is further along, and it is also possible that a lot of prep work has been conducted in secret. The PLAN is notoriously hush-hush about large projects like this, look at the 094.

By the way nice to hear from you Jeff. If any news would bring out some of the members we haven't heard from in a while this would be it.

Click to expand...

I believe a lot of prep work most probably has been done. The logistics are probably well planned for sustaining the build...but, much more than that planning would have been impossible to hide if they had started prepositioning material for the carriers.

I have no doubts at all that the Chinese will their own carriers short of something very dramatic happening...I also still believe that they will commission the Varyag first and use it to train for these two becoming operational...which means in the end they will have three carriers if this report is accurate...which is probably a number they need to keep one at sea at all times in normal times, and surge two if necessary.

I believe it will take every biit and all of that, and a lot of good fortune in the process, for them to make the 2017 dates I speak of.

Time will tell...and thank you for the warm welcome to the comments. it's been a busy election and then holiday season for me.

Re: Ideal chinese carrier thread

Finn McCool said:

I agree with you that 2015 is a very ambitious timeline, but its possible they will postpone it, once the project is further along, and it is also possible that a lot of prep work has been conducted in secret. The PLAN is notoriously hush-hush about large projects like this, look at the 094.

By the way nice to hear from you Jeff. If any news would bring out some of the members we haven't heard from in a while this would be it.

Click to expand...

I believe a lot of prep work most probably has been done. The logistics are probably well planned for sustaining the build...but, much more than that planning would have been impossible to hide if they had started prepositioning material for the carriers.

I have no doubts at all that the Chinese will their own carriers short of something very dramatic happening...I also still believe that they will commission the Varyag first and use it to train for these two becoming operational...which means in the end they will have three carriers if this report is accurate...which is probably a number they need to keep one at sea at all times in normal times, and surge two if necessary.

I believe it will take every biit and all of that, and a lot of good fortune in the process, for them to make the 2017 dates I speak of.

Time will tell...and thank you for the warm welcome to the comments. it's been a busy election and then holiday season for me.

Re: Ideal chinese carrier thread

Finn McCool said:

I agree with you that 2015 is a very ambitious timeline, but its possible they will postpone it, once the project is further along, and it is also possible that a lot of prep work has been conducted in secret. The PLAN is notoriously hush-hush about large projects like this, look at the 094.

By the way nice to hear from you Jeff. If any news would bring out some of the members we haven't heard from in a while this would be it.

Click to expand...

I believe a lot of prep work most probably has been done. The logistics are probably well planned for sustaining the build...but, much more than that planning would have been impossible to hide if they had started prepositioning material for the carriers.

I have no doubts at all that the Chinese will their own carriers short of something very dramatic happening...I also still believe that they will commission the Varyag first and use it to train for these two becoming operational...which means in the end they will have three carriers if this report is accurate...which is probably a number they need to keep one at sea at all times in normal times, and surge two if necessary.

I believe it will take every biit and all of that, and a lot of good fortune in the process, for them to make the 2017 dates I speak of.

Time will tell...and thank you for the warm welcome to the comments. it's been a busy election and then holiday season for me.

Re: Ideal chinese carrier thread

Next year could be this year 2009 because they did the interview in the end of 2008.

Re: Ideal chinese carrier thread

Next year could be this year 2009 because they did the interview in the end of 2008.

Re: Ideal chinese carrier thread

Next year could be this year 2009 because they did the interview in the end of 2008.