PLAN Carrier Strike Group and Airwing
- Thread starter Jeff Head
- Start date
SinoSoldier
Colonel
Re: PLAN Carrier Construction
Whatever happened to the photo of what seemed to be a amphibious assault ship near completion?
Whatever happened to the photo of what seemed to be a amphibious assault ship near completion?
Re: PLAN Carrier Construction
Not going to happen.. It takes the US seven years to build a CVN. It takes about five years to build and LHA/LHD...
Divide all the time scales you gave by 2
Not going to happen.. It takes the US seven years to build a CVN. It takes about five years to build and LHA/LHD...
Re: PLAN Carrier Construction
The thing at JNCX? That was a subsized demo module combined with an optical illusion.
The thing at JNCX? That was a subsized demo module combined with an optical illusion.
Re: PLAN Carrier Construction
The 7 years it takes for USN to build a Mimitz class CVN is made possible by the fact the United States has had the Nimitz class carrier in continuous series production at the same yard for 40 years. The first indigenous Chinese carrier, being the first ever, will likely take substantially longer to build and much longer to work out all the adjustments and issues before the ship is truly ready for full service, although any lengthy period of pre-service adjustment may not be appearent to the outside observer.
If the second Chinese indigenous Chinese carrier was to be yet another new design, say full CATOBAR with nuclear power, then I think it the second ship would also take substantially longer than 7 years.
This is why I suspect the first Chinese indigenous Chinese carrier won't be a one ship class. To benefit from experience and economy of scale, they will build a class of 2 or 3, which will take them 10-15 years, especially of they stagger the builds to enable the second ship to incorporate experience gained building the first. If they start their first domestic carrier today, they ship won't be finished until after 2020, and won't be fully ready for several more years. The second ship probably won't see service till the late 2020s.
The 7 years it takes for USN to build a Mimitz class CVN is made possible by the fact the United States has had the Nimitz class carrier in continuous series production at the same yard for 40 years. The first indigenous Chinese carrier, being the first ever, will likely take substantially longer to build and much longer to work out all the adjustments and issues before the ship is truly ready for full service, although any lengthy period of pre-service adjustment may not be appearent to the outside observer.
If the second Chinese indigenous Chinese carrier was to be yet another new design, say full CATOBAR with nuclear power, then I think it the second ship would also take substantially longer than 7 years.
This is why I suspect the first Chinese indigenous Chinese carrier won't be a one ship class. To benefit from experience and economy of scale, they will build a class of 2 or 3, which will take them 10-15 years, especially of they stagger the builds to enable the second ship to incorporate experience gained building the first. If they start their first domestic carrier today, they ship won't be finished until after 2020, and won't be fully ready for several more years. The second ship probably won't see service till the late 2020s.
Re: PLAN Carrier Construction
I have a lot of respect for what the Chinese/PLAN are accomplishing and can accomplish and have been watching carefully now for going on fifteen years.
The numbers I listed are probably the most optimistic you can expect...and they are very optimistic. More likely add years to my schedule.
One thing is for sure...time will tell and reveal all of this regarding the Chinese carrier build schedules and time frames.
Sorry, IMHO, no.Divide all the time scales you gave by 2
I have a lot of respect for what the Chinese/PLAN are accomplishing and can accomplish and have been watching carefully now for going on fifteen years.
The numbers I listed are probably the most optimistic you can expect...and they are very optimistic. More likely add years to my schedule.
One thing is for sure...time will tell and reveal all of this regarding the Chinese carrier build schedules and time frames.
Re: PLAN Carrier Construction
Indeed, a carrier will be by far the most complicated ship yet attempted by the Chinese ship building industry, and in many ways totally different from any vessel ever attempted by them. Studying a finished product only gets you so far. some twists and turns in the development process can't be seen in the final product. So the chinese may yet run into problems they did not suspect existed as they build their new carrier. Whatever prowess building 45% of the world's merchant tonnage in 2012 may have given them, building the first carrier, especially one this ambitious (no other country ever attempted a 67,000 ton carrier with their first effort) will still be an overwhelming challenge.
Indeed, a carrier will be by far the most complicated ship yet attempted by the Chinese ship building industry, and in many ways totally different from any vessel ever attempted by them. Studying a finished product only gets you so far. some twists and turns in the development process can't be seen in the final product. So the chinese may yet run into problems they did not suspect existed as they build their new carrier. Whatever prowess building 45% of the world's merchant tonnage in 2012 may have given them, building the first carrier, especially one this ambitious (no other country ever attempted a 67,000 ton carrier with their first effort) will still be an overwhelming challenge.
Engineer
Major
Re: PLAN Carrier Construction
A Nimitz class taking seven years may not have so much to do with sophistication. It could have more to do with balancing between the budget of procuring carriers and retaining experience in building carriers. It is entirely possible that the US could finish one carrier in half the time, but just chosen not to.
A Nimitz class taking seven years may not have so much to do with sophistication. It could have more to do with balancing between the budget of procuring carriers and retaining experience in building carriers. It is entirely possible that the US could finish one carrier in half the time, but just chosen not to.
SinoSoldier
Colonel
Re: PLAN Carrier Construction
The US was able to build two carriers every three months during the fight with Japan. So it's not a case of sophistication, industry, or capital.
The US was able to build two carriers every three months during the fight with Japan. So it's not a case of sophistication, industry, or capital.
Re: PLAN Carrier Construction
There is no comparison between those vessels...even though at the time it was certainly impressive what the US did...and the vessels of today and the technology, the required industrial complex, and the amount of funding I takes to do them.
The US seven year number is from start to commissioning of a Nimitz class. You can increase the production rate by staggering them at two different yards...but each will still take that amount of time. In an all-out full-war footing, the US might, with all of its experience, be able to cut out all the margins and excessive union and safety regulations (thereby making it a more dangerous job) and get one from start to commission in as little as four years...but a complete different mind set would have had to take hold in the country among the people and the politicians. That would mean building one in say 30 months, and then trialing and commissioning in another 18 months. But that is not happening any time soon.
I believe China, right now, not on a war footing or austerity/rush schedule is going to take an absolute minimum of six years start to finish...and that is for non-nuclear vessels and if everything goes perfectly. And it isn't going to.
When you compare those World War II carriers to today's carriers, whether a US nuclear carrier, or a carrier like the Liaoning, it certainly is an issue of sophistication, industry, and capital.
There is no comparison between those vessels...even though at the time it was certainly impressive what the US did...and the vessels of today and the technology, the required industrial complex, and the amount of funding I takes to do them.
The US seven year number is from start to commissioning of a Nimitz class. You can increase the production rate by staggering them at two different yards...but each will still take that amount of time. In an all-out full-war footing, the US might, with all of its experience, be able to cut out all the margins and excessive union and safety regulations (thereby making it a more dangerous job) and get one from start to commission in as little as four years...but a complete different mind set would have had to take hold in the country among the people and the politicians. That would mean building one in say 30 months, and then trialing and commissioning in another 18 months. But that is not happening any time soon.
I believe China, right now, not on a war footing or austerity/rush schedule is going to take an absolute minimum of six years start to finish...and that is for non-nuclear vessels and if everything goes perfectly. And it isn't going to.