PLAN Anti-Piracy Deployments

Re: Somali pirates and Chinese Navy

plawolf said:

Setting up a logistical supply base in the Seychelles would be a massive boost to the PLAN's Somali patrol missions.

But seeing how small the Seychelles are, I really cannot see this base being big enough to have a major strategic impact on the region, unless the PLA does and concrete over the whole place, which is never going to happen.

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Indeed. By location Seychelles is very advantageous in terms of logistics for counter-piracy ops, sitting just off the known piracy hotspots, but when consider how small even the main islands of the Seychelles is there's no way it could accommodate anything more than a cold storage and supply station, a small fuel depot maybe but I don't know if that'd at odds with any environmental policies for a nation that relies on tourism.

And by what CCTV's documentaries depicted of the expedition, throughout the tour of duty the fleet (including the AO ship) has virtually no breaks in running escort pickets except for the lull when cargo ships are gathering for another picket, so can pretty much ruled out shore leaves.

So my take would be if to setup anything, it'd be hardly more than cold storage or food supply station, that could lighten the burden of the AO ship in terms of fresh produce supplies and ie. better rations for the expedition crew, since PLAN really taxing their small fleet of AO ships to the limit, and everybody knows better foodstuff helps in health and morale.

Such would be a far cry from the kind of pre-position made by US Navy, which would really tip the balance of the game.

Unless...Seychelles make further request to China, to help defend its water from piracy...now something like that demands a far larger presence then what said above. By what I can found so far those Somali pirates ain't that bold yet.

Re: Somali pirates and Chinese Navy

So maybe this would help cut the costs of the anti-piracy operations, but NO ONE on this planet will see it as just that. If this goes through, we will have to see it as some sort of tit-for-tat move towards India, simply because everybody else will.

I am not advocating it, but it makes some sense. India is beefing up its borders and seems to be willing to enter the fray in the South China Sea. The first costs China money as it needs to respond at some level, and the second encourages the trouble makers in the region. If China sets up shop in the Seychelles, it will serve notice to India that China can play the same game... and in a way that has cost benefits for itself.

Re: Somali pirates and Chinese Navy

MwRYum said:

Indeed. By location Seychelles is very advantageous in terms of logistics for counter-piracy ops, sitting just off the known piracy hotspots, but when consider how small even the main islands of the Seychelles is there's no way it could accommodate anything more than a cold storage and supply station, a small fuel depot maybe but I don't know if that'd at odds with any environmental policies for a nation that relies on tourism.

And by what CCTV's documentaries depicted of the expedition, throughout the tour of duty the fleet (including the AO ship) has virtually no breaks in running escort pickets except for the lull when cargo ships are gathering for another picket, so can pretty much ruled out shore leaves.

So my take would be if to setup anything, it'd be hardly more than cold storage or food supply station, that could lighten the burden of the AO ship in terms of fresh produce supplies and ie. better rations for the expedition crew, since PLAN really taxing their small fleet of AO ships to the limit, and everybody knows better foodstuff helps in health and morale.

Such would be a far cry from the kind of pre-position made by US Navy, which would really tip the balance of the game.

Unless...Seychelles make further request to China, to help defend its water from piracy...now something like that demands a far larger presence then what said above. By what I can found so far those Somali pirates ain't that bold yet.

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Well in addition to being a supply depot, China could do the same as the US and have a drone base to enhance surveillance and intelligence capability. Or bump the flotilla up by one vessel so one can always rotate out for the shore leave?

Re: Somali pirates and Chinese Navy

The PLAN is only operating an escort operation, so there is no need for an UAV base. But China may be interested in setting up a listening post on any base they set up to see if they can gather any useful intel about the American drop operations or signials from India.

The presence of the American base is also another reason why it would be unlikely for the PLAN to set up UAV ops - the Americans will be listening as well.

In addition, having a drone base will fundamentally change the nature of any base. Without it, such a base will just be a totally harmless supply and shore leave base. No doubt some will still try to paint it as a sinister threat, but they will just look stupid for suggesting it.

Having a drone base would make these same lines seem a lot less stupid as recent American drone use has not exactly built up the best reputation for drones in the public imagination.

The intensive nature of the PLAN operations would actually be a reason why shore leave on the Seychelles would be very useful. And the based does not even need to be all that big, they can just buy or build a multi-storey building as a main barracks that can house a few hundred men and rotate crews off the ships during operations.

With a supply and shore leave base in place, the PLAN floatilas could easily stay on station for much longer patrols. Enhancing the training value and saving a lot of money for the PLAN to maintain the mission. Hell, the prospects of shore leave on the Seychelles will no doubt massively boost moral and may even help recruitment.

Actually, this could be a very clever move by the Seychelles government. Somali pirates are already expending their operations to kidnapping foreign tourists from neighbouring resorts. How long does anyone imagine it will be before some pirate bright spark start having ideas about the popular Seychelles?

For a tourisium dependent economy like the Seychelles, prevention is critical. Right now, few if any tourists would ever worry about Somali pirates when thinking about a holiday to the Seychelles, but just look at the damage done to the Kenyan tourism industry to see what happens when such an eventuality does enter people's minds.

With a PLAN base and hundreds of PLAN sailors and special forces on shore leave and PLAN ships and planes regularly coming to the islands for pick ups and drop offs, the waters around the Seychelles would become pretty unattractive to pirates pretty quickly.

All the PLAN personnel on shore leave will also give the local economy a nice boost at a time of economic hardship in the west.

Hell, all the publicity around such a base if it is built will probably help to put the Seychelles on the radar of many Chinese civilian tourists.

Re: Somali pirates and Chinese Navy

joshuatree said:

Well in addition to being a supply depot, China could do the same as the US and have a drone base to enhance surveillance and intelligence capability. Or bump the flotilla up by one vessel so one can always rotate out for the shore leave?

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Other than the obvious disadvantage of US eavesdropping, none of the officially inducted UAV in the PLA arsenal have the kind of endurance to cover the entire operation theater, those that can are still either in prototype stage or yet beyond drawing board,if they need UAV they may better off operating them off the ships, but the whole UAV suite would compete precious space with the helicopters they bring onboard, unless the ship in question is the 071 LPD.

And by the pattern established so far, the PLAN seems to be more eager in getting as many of their ships and personnel the exposure of such tour of duty, than to really extend the duration of each expedition - this is far different then any exercises and drills, this is real life, there's no halt, no reset, no redo, no mistake is tolerated; the unpredictability of real world gives the best shakedown they could ever throw at their equipment.

So such a supply base would mean an improvement on operational quality for the expedition fleet, and in the foreseeable future that is good enough.

Re: Somali pirates and Chinese Navy

Also PLAN doesn't have any experience with a base far away. Best to start small with a small base in the Seychelles or a similar place.

Re: Somali pirates and Chinese Navy

MwRYum said:

Other than the obvious disadvantage of US eavesdropping, none of the officially inducted UAV in the PLA arsenal have the kind of endurance to cover the entire operation theater, those that can are still either in prototype stage or yet beyond drawing board,if they need UAV they may better off operating them off the ships, but the whole UAV suite would compete precious space with the helicopters they bring onboard, unless the ship in question is the 071 LPD.

And by the pattern established so far, the PLAN seems to be more eager in getting as many of their ships and personnel the exposure of such tour of duty, than to really extend the duration of each expedition - this is far different then any exercises and drills, this is real life, there's no halt, no reset, no redo, no mistake is tolerated; the unpredictability of real world gives the best shakedown they could ever throw at their equipment.

So such a supply base would mean an improvement on operational quality for the expedition fleet, and in the foreseeable future that is good enough.

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I think that boils down to a risk analysis decision for the Chinese military. What good is developing a UAV program if you don't use it in the real world? And so far, the anti-piracy patrol has been a great scenario for them to gain real experience without having to further fan the flames of China is being aggressive with their military, etc. Even if their UAVs can't cover the entire theater, partial coverage still helps the squadron on shift with intel.

Re: Somali pirates and Chinese Navy

joshuatree said:

I think that boils down to a risk analysis decision for the Chinese military. What good is developing a UAV program if you don't use it in the real world?

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They have a few places like the border regions especially in the NW and SW where UAV could be tested/used.

Re: Somali pirates and Chinese Navy

joshuatree said:

I think that boils down to a risk analysis decision for the Chinese military. What good is developing a UAV program if you don't use it in the real world? And so far, the anti-piracy patrol has been a great scenario for them to gain real experience without having to further fan the flames of China is being aggressive with their military, etc. Even if their UAVs can't cover the entire theater, partial coverage still helps the squadron on shift with intel.

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China's naval UAVs are designed to go hunting for US carriers in the Pacific, not pirates in fishing boats.

Deploying those UAVs so close to an American base is just asking for trouble, not be mention that the UAVs are also very likely to be unsuitable for locating and monitoring pirate activity as they would have been designed primarily to hunt far larger prey.

Also, as I have already pointed out, the PLAN is only running convoy protection. Having detailed info on pirate activity does not matter one bit to their operational needs since they are not there to go chasing pirates.

What you are suggesting is akin to saying the USAF should be deploying F22s in Afghanistan.

Re: Somali pirates and Chinese Navy

lostsoul said:

They have a few places like the border regions especially in the NW and SW where UAV could be tested/used.

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Yes, but there's always a difference between drone patrols over land and sea and both provide valuable experience.

plawolf said:

China's naval UAVs are designed to go hunting for US carriers in the Pacific, not pirates in fishing boats.

Deploying those UAVs so close to an American base is just asking for trouble, not be mention that the UAVs are also very likely to be unsuitable for locating and monitoring pirate activity as they would have been designed primarily to hunt far larger prey.

Also, as I have already pointed out, the PLAN is only running convoy protection. Having detailed info on pirate activity does not matter one bit to their operational needs since they are not there to go chasing pirates.

What you are suggesting is akin to saying the USAF should be deploying F22s in Afghanistan.

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I don't believe what I'm suggesting is akin to sending F22s in Afghanistan because the US actually already has a drone base for anti-piracy in the Seychelles, not unless you are saying the Americans have done the equivalent. Sure, maybe the intent of the UAVs were meant for US carriers in the Pacific but mission flexibility and experience on extended ocean UAV patrols is something China could use. Having detailed info on pirate movements still benefits a convoy as I've already pointed out as well. It isn't always about chasing pirates but also about pirates heading towards a convoy. Somehow, I don't think the Seychelles sent this invite in hopes of merely seeing PLAN set up a food and stores depot.

"We have invited the Chinese government to set up a military presence on Mahe to fight the pirate attacks that the Seychelles face on a regular basis,"

"Together, we need to increase our surveillance capacity in the Indian Ocean..."