PLAN Aircraft Carrier programme...(Closed)

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Blitzo

Blitzo

Lieutenant General
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jacksprat said:
I know that this will probably piss everyone off, but how do we know that those supposedly 'dummy missiles' weigh as much as the real ones, that is an assumption on someone's part. I'm going to have to change my name to 'Doubting Thomas', because I don't believe everything pictures seem to show me, even the ones that aren't photo shopped.
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Doubt is all good and healthy but logic must factor in as well.
It is standard practice for qualifying planes to take off and land with dummy representatives of the real weapons to simulate the weight. Otherwise why load up dummies at all?
It's not an assumption. Deduction, is a better word.

By the way, where are the J-15's that are supposedly painted in PLAN colors by now, supposedly there are quite a few by everything I read here, just not seeing them.

But, I guess time will tell
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Not flying on liaoning, is your answer.
That doesn't mean they aren't being produced, but rather we haven't had pictures of them. If you've been a PLA follower for a while I'm sure this all makes sense and how we can come to such conclusions based on just a few well placed rumours, a few pictures or CCTV frames, and good old fashioned logic.
 
C

chuck731

Banned Idiot
Engineer said:
Good to see pictures of J-15 taking off with dummy ordinances. According to the news anchor, they have already performed takeoffs with maximum load. Here is what I said exactly one month ago:
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This news piece seems to me to be intended to make the J-15 sound impressive on the surface without actually revealing any real information about the J-15.

This "maximum load" is almost certainly not the same maximum load as that of a Su-33/J-15 taking off from a 1500 meter run way, but is instead a different, unspecified maximum load of relevent only to a ramp take off after a 100-150 meter run.
 
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J

jacksprat

New Member
Bltizo said:
Doubt is all good and healthy but logic must factor in as well.
It is standard practice for qualifying planes to take off and land with dummy representatives of the real weapons to simulate the weight. Otherwise why load up dummies at all?
It's not an assumption. Deduction, is a better word.



Not flying on liaoning, is your answer.
That doesn't mean they aren't being produced, but rather we haven't had pictures of them. If you've been a PLA follower for a while I'm sure this all makes sense and how we can come to such conclusions based on just a few well placed rumours, a few pictures or CCTV frames, and good old fashioned logic.
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Thank you for your response, I have been reading your posts, along with those of people like tphuang, popeye, hendrick, Jeff Head and and the world famous Air Force Brat with great interest.

No offense intended, but what you might call 'deduction' based on internet postings and quasi, semi- or official web sites, I might call 'assumptions' and I'm going to guess that you are probably familiar with the phrase that 'an assumption makes and ass out of you and me', t'was a phrase drummed into me at a very early age and is one I still live by.

Having spent many years on USN aircraft carriers I am somewhat familiar with launching platforms capabilities, those of its embarked aircraft, the attendant battle group's associated platform capabilties. I know what the norms are and should be between conventional, nuclear, ramped or catapult equipped platforms.

I tend to read passively, have done so now for over 12 years running now. I only interject when I think a healthy dose of reality or some degree of reservation might be helpful to the ongoing discussion.

I have read that CV-16 is supposed to conduct an open ocean deployment sometime soon, though I hate use that term for a couple of weeks in blue water ops. I don't believe that it might do that with only prototype aircraft embarked, but I have yet to see any evidence of J-15s painted in PLAN colors. Those aircraft and probably their pilots would still need to qualify to land on a carrier underway.

I'm not sure that I am ready to accept the press reports that the J-15s are loaded with dummy weapons that are the same weight as the real McCoys, all governments, even mine, have been known to stretch the facts to send a message, even when it might not be the whole truth.

So I guess I will go back to reading passively and not interrupting your august discussions so that I won't offend anyone or upset the harmony of this particular web site.

Kind of agree with LatenLazy's most recent post......

Best regards.
 
L

latenlazy

Brigadier
jacksprat said:
Thank you for your response, I have been reading your posts, along with those of people like tphuang, popeye, hendrick, Jeff Head and and the world famous Air Force Brat with great interest.

No offense intended, but what you might call 'deduction' based on internet postings and quasi, semi- or official web sites, I might call 'assumptions' and I'm going to guess that you are probably familiar with the phrase that 'an assumption makes and ass out of you and me', t'was a phrase drummed into me at a very early age and is one I still live by.

Having spent many years on USN aircraft carriers I am somewhat familiar with launching platforms capabilities, those of its embarked aircraft, the attendant battle group's associated platform capabilties. I know what the norms are and should be between conventional, nuclear, ramped or catapult equipped platforms.

I tend to read passively, have done so now for over 12 years running now. I only interject when I think a healthy dose of reality or some degree of reservation might be helpful to the ongoing discussion.

I have read that CV-16 is supposed to conduct an open ocean deployment sometime soon, though I hate use that term for a couple of weeks in blue water ops. I don't believe that it might do that with only prototype aircraft embarked, but I have yet to see any evidence of J-15s painted in PLAN colors. Those aircraft and probably their pilots would still need to qualify to land on a carrier underway.

I'm not sure that I am ready to accept the press reports that the J-15s are loaded with dummy weapons that are the same weight as the real McCoys, all governments, even mine, have been known to stretch the facts to send a message, even when it might not be the whole truth.

So I guess I will go back to reading passively and not interrupting your august discussions so that I won't offend anyone or upset the harmony of this particular web site.

Kind of agree with LatenLazy's most recent post......

Best regards.
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Oh, don't get me wrong. I'm rather confident that those are full weight dummy weapons. At this point in China's military development and the East Asian security environment they have no more incentive to exaggerate their progress or their capabilities, and every incentive to accelerate the development of their military technologies. Plus in the current information environment it would be futile to do so, unlike during the Cold War.

My comment was meant to point out that Chinese journalism tends to exaggerate the significance of developments as opposed to exaggerating the development themselves.
 
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bd popeye

bd popeye

The Last Jedi
VIP Professional
Bltizo said:
Well here are the pics that no_name posted a while back, but his translations are gone because you accidentally deleted the thread lol.


However, there is a page describing various loadouts of the Su-33 and time on station, etc, that it would allow... Whether one accepts it or not is another matter.

1: MTOW 26 tons, fuel load 5.7 tons, weapons load, 4 R73 and 4 R77. Combat radii 660 km
2: MTOW 27 tons, fuel load 6.3 tons, weapons load, 4 R73 and 2 R77 and 1 Kh-65E. Combat radii 710 km
3: MTOW: 30.5 tons, fuel load 9.3 tons, weapons load, 4 R73 and 8 R77. Combat radii 1280 km
4: MTOW 30.5 tons, fuel load 5.7 tons, weapons load, 22 x 250 kg bombs. Combat radii 700 km
5: MTOW 31.9 tons, fuel load 9.3 tons, weapons load 4 R73 and 2 R77 and 4 Kh-31. Combat radius 1220 km.
6: MTOW:31.4 tons, fuel load 9.3 tons, weapons load 4 R73 and 2 500kg class LGB and 1 1500kg class LGB. Combat radius 1250 km.

There will understandably be skepticism to these numbers, but these are the closest I can get for what J-15 may end up being able to perform under various loadouts.

OBviously the weapons are russian here, and J-15 will use chinese weapons, but you can easily switch out, say a Kh-65E for a couple of YJ-83Ks instead.

Obviously the pages also say that the J-15 can take off with MTOW or near MTOW at the ski jump.

Namely...
with 25 knots headwind Su-33 can take off from the 110m launch positions with 32 tons, MTOW, and with 0 headwind, launch is limited to 28.2 tons.
At the 195 launch position, Su-33 can take off with MTOW with 0 headwind.
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thanks blitzo.... Are those metric tons? Correct?...tomorrow I'll bounce those numbers around for comparison and give an opinion.

Thanks again
 
C

chuck731

Banned Idiot
bd popeye said:
thanks blitzo.... Are those metric tons? Correct?...tomorrow I'll bounce those numbers around for comparison and give an opinion.

Thanks again
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I am willing to accept for sake of discussion the Su-33/J-15 can take off in STOBAR with full internal fuel and a standard AAW load out of 4 SRAAM and 4 MRAAM. Su-27 family can accommodate 12 tons of internal fuel, I would assume Su-33/J-15's fuel capacity is probably less, but generally similar.

I think Su-33/J-15's launchable fuel capacity with heavier A2G load out can be deduced by taking the weight of the A2G load out out of a 12 tons of nominal fuel capacity.

As to range with A2G ordinance, that is hard to say. A2G in extenal carriage is draggy. It depends on how draggy each configuration actually is, plus the fact that A2G ordinance probably comes at direct expense of internal fuel load in STOBAR configuration.

Where as a CATOBAR F/A-18 might in a pinch launch with full internal fuel, defensive AAW ordinance, and a significant A2G ordinance, I suspect Su-33/J-15 in CATOBAR mode can't.
 
Hendrik_2000

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
jacksprat said:
By the way, where are the J-15's that are supposedly painted in PLAN colors by now, supposedly there are quite a few by everything I read here, just not seeing them.

But, I guess time will tell
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No one should have any doubt that J 15 has entered the production stage. The Avic representative in National congress said so . So do Sun Cong the chief designer of J 15. heck even the boss drop by to personally inspect the specimen.That shows the importance of J 15 production. Here is the J 15 in Naval color and insignia

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The boss make personal inspection at Shenyang
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chuck731

Banned Idiot
Hendrik_2000 said:
The boss make personal inspection at Shenyang
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Reform indeed,

Mao with his paunch could never fit into that cockpit, Deng would be too short to see over the sill of the cockpit. Jiang and Hu with their glasses would look stupid in a cockpit.

Xi actually looks like he could have once upon a time been a pilot.

Hopefully Xi would look better in a helmet than Dukakis

:)
 
J

jacksprat

New Member
latenlazy said:
Oh, don't get me wrong. I'm rather confident that those are full weight dummy weapons. At this point in China's military development and the East Asian security environment they have no more incentive to exaggerate their progress or their capabilities, and every incentive to accelerate the development of their military technologies. Plus in the current information environment it would be futile to do so, unlike during the Cold War.

My comment was meant to point out that Chinese journalism tends to exaggerate the significance of developments as opposed to exaggerating the development themselves.
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I fully agree with your last sentence, but only partly with your first paragraph. This is probably going to veer off topic, but I think I need to say it anyway......

It is hard to deceive the governments and defense departments of most countries today, but not necessarily so with the public in countries such as Vietnam, Philippines, Indonesia and Malaysia where the public is not very sophisticated, though probably not Japan. These countries all have issues with Chinese territorial claims in their adjacent territories. Public perception is not really all that over rated in such countries that cannot hope to compete economically or militarily overhyped press reporting and internet speculation about China's aircraft carrier program would serve the PRC,s interests.
China uses this and so do the governments of the other countries in one way or the other. ]

End of off topic
 
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