PLAN Aircraft Carrier programme...(Closed)

Status
Not open for further replies.

franco-russe

Senior Member
Hmmm...that is rather deflating, eh?

I personally believe that they will still build another STOBAR that is an improved Liaoning. Based on what we saw in the Dalain shipyard with that one module, it looked like they may have already started construction...but then again, based on this quote, perhaps not.

If Dalian continues to add to and build onto that module, we will see it happening over the next few months.

Waiting until the have gained experience from operating the LIAONING would be the sensible approach. But I do not think they will be that patient. Personally, I think that the real reason for Xi's visit to Dalian was the laying down of Type 001A.
 

Intrepid

Major
“The Chinese navy is using aircraft carrier LIAONING for training and testing ... will decide on an operational carrier only after a few years of evaluation”
If China were in a hurry, Liaoning would spent 14 days every month at sea. They are not in a hurry. Limited team, limited money, limited development that we can see.
 

adeptitus

Captain
VIP Professional
Here is the full article:

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


The article states:

"We have around 36 airplanes operating on board our ship," he told reporters. "And we are still practicing and doing tests and experiments for the equipment and systems."

Hmm. I think maybe he was trying say "we will have around 36 planes operating on the ship" and not 36 planes on the ship today.
 

Blackstone

Brigadier
Here is the full article:

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


The article states:

"We have around 36 airplanes operating on board our ship," he told reporters. "And we are still practicing and doing tests and experiments for the equipment and systems."

Hmm. I think maybe he was trying say "we will have around 36 planes operating on the ship" and not 36 planes on the ship today.

Between helicopters and J-15s, there might very well be ~36 planes operating on the Liaoning.
 

Jeff Head

General
Registered Member
Between helicopters and J-15s, there might very well be ~36 planes operating on the Liaoning.
It's been out to sea several times. Never seen more than two J-15 aboard at once, and what looked to be 2-3 helos.

I would be shocked if they had operated with 36 aircraft of any type aboard her at one time at this point.
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
It's been out to sea several times. Never seen more than two J-15 aboard at once, and what looked to be 2-3 helos.

I would be shocked if they had operated with 36 aircraft of any type aboard her at one time at this point.

Never say never new J15 was spotted sporting Navy color and insignia. The unveiling coincide with the big boss visit to Shenyang

This is interesting article from the Diplomat that will lead to lively discussion. Nothing that we don't know

A number of recent reports in Chinese state-run media indicate that the country’s carrier-based J-15 multirole fighter jets have entered mass production.
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

The Shenyang J-15 (also called Flying Shark) is China’s carrier-based fighter aircraft. It was reversed engineered from a Russian Sukhoi Su-33 that China acquired from Ukraine, although it reportedly is equipped with some indigenous weapons, avionics and other features that Beijing claims greatly enhances its capabilities. The J-15 is also powered by the Chinese-built Taihang (WS-10) turbofan engine.

A J-15 prototype conducted its first flight test in August 2009. In November last year it was announced that a PLA Air Force (PLAAF) pilot conducted the first take-off and landing from China’s aircraft carrier, Liaoning, using one of the J-15 tester jets. Throughout 2013 the PLAAF has continued holding take-off and landing exercises using the J-15 aircraft.

The People’s Daily Online carried a couple of reports this week on the J-15. Most of them begin by noting that “many keen military observers” have noted that the J-15s that have appeared on CCTV as of late have been painted gray with a People’s Republic of China flag on them, in contrast to the initial five J-15s that were painted yellow and were therefore marked as being intended solely for testing and development. The reports then note that the new paint job has led these “keen military observers” to speculate that the J-15 fighters have entered mass production.

One of the reports then asks Yin Zhuo, which it identifies only as a military analyst but who is also a former Rear Admiral in the PLA Navy (PLAN), to comment on this speculation. Admiral Yin begins by affirming that there has not been an official announcement yet on whether the J-15s have entered mass production, but nonetheless judges that the “navy paint finish on the J-15 indicates that it is now in formal service.”

He is then quoted as that online speculation about whether the aircraft has entered into mass production is “logical based on the facts that J-15 is already in service, and its technology is mature enough for mass production.” The rest of the article is devoted to Admiral Yin discussing what the implications will be if the J-15s have entered mass production, including the aircraft’s service life, which he estimates at 25-30 years.

“Once mass production is under way,” the People’s Daily paraphrases Admiral Yin as saying, “the aircraft design will be fixed other than in terms of possible changes to radar and electronic communication systems, or modernization of the engine after 10 to 15 years of service. However, the profile, basic finish, and performance standards of the aircraft have been established.”

Although hardly conclusive, the reports strongly suggest that mass production of the J-15 has begun, or at least that the Communist Party wants to create that impression.

Notably, the reports coincide with the Commander of PLAN, Admiral Wu Shengli, visiting the United States. The commander of the Liaoning carrier and the pilot who first landed on the carrier last November are accompanying Admiral Wu on the trip, according to Reuters.

“We have around 36 airplanes operating on board our ship,” Captain Zhang Zheng, the Liaoning commander told reporters in Washington this week, referring to aircraft carrier. “And we are still practicing and doing tests and experiments for the equipment and systems.”

Admiral Wu, on the other hand, told reporters that the Liaoning is just for training and experimentation and after a “final evaluation” the PLAN will decide on the development of a new aircraft carrier for the service.

Meanwhile, one of the other J-15 articles that appeared on the People’s Daily website compared it favorably relative to other countries’ carrier-based aircraft. Indeed, Admiral Yin, who was also quoted in that article, is paraphrased as saying that the J-15 “reaches a similar level to the U.S. F/A-18C/D Super Hornet” and is superior in terms of its air combat capability.

However, Want China Times flags a Xinhua report that quotes Sun Cong, the J-15s designer, noting that currently the aircraft cannot launch attacks against ships and ground targets when taking off from the Liaoning. That is because the aircraft carrier utilizes a ski-jump ramp and the J-15 would be too heavy to take off if it was carrying air-to-surface missiles and bombs. Thus, until the Navy acquires a Catapult-Assisted Take-Off But Arrested-Recovery (CATOBAR) carrier, the J-15, which is a multirole fighter, will be limited primarily to air superiority operations (and ship defense).

Notably, one of the People’s Daily reports observed that the J-15’s “front wheel is suitable for catapult launch similar to the carrier-based fighter of the U.S. Navy. The catapult launch was taken into consideration at the beginning of its design.”

In that context, Admiral Wu’s comments seem very interesting indeed.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


Uploaded with
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


Uploaded with
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
 
Last edited:

joshuatree

Captain
Hmmm...that is rather deflating, eh?

I personally believe that they will still build another STOBAR that is an improved Liaoning. Based on what we saw in the Dalain shipyard with that one module, it looked like they may have already started construction...but then again, based on this quote, perhaps not.

If Dalian continues to add to and build onto that module, we will see it happening over the next few months.

I guess it depends on each individual's expectations. Slowing down on building the next carrier to train enough air wings, produce enough fighters, train enough sailors, hash out catobar, maybe hash out nuclear propulsion - I'm okay with that. The couple years for shipyards can easily be filled up with LHA, 055, more 052Ds, next gen subs, next gen replenishment oilers, maybe even 054Bs. That's plenty of growth and improvement without a carrier.
 

Blitzo

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
Hmmm...that is rather deflating, eh?

I personally believe that they will still build another STOBAR that is an improved Liaoning. Based on what we saw in the Dalain shipyard with that one module, it looked like they may have already started construction...but then again, based on this quote, perhaps not.

If Dalian continues to add to and build onto that module, we will see it happening over the next few months.


To be fair, the media (even through direct quotes of high military brass) may often misconstrue or incorrectly translate statements.

I don't think that's the case here, and the admiral's statement could easily be dismissed because we all know how laughably in denial the PLA can be even though we all know what's really spinning below (for instance, the whole varyag casino dance, the near complete silence on J-20, etc).

So I wouldn't say the admiral's quotes hold much water anyway, and I myself would certainly be very surprised if they end up waiting three or more years to even start construction, considering we've seen two recent module mockups from two different shipyards.


---

And hendrik, that diplomat report takes a lot of quotes from chinese news sources, which aren't exactly reliable. There are no visual indicators that J-15 is CATOBAR capable, it claims the YJ-62 is a supersonic AShM even though it's subsonic, and far too big for J-15 to carry, not to mention it doesn't even have an air launched variant, and the whole inability to launch from STOBAR with heavy loads rings of inaccuracy too. There are literally incorrect observations from every possible facet, which I suspect is simply a case of bad reporting.
 

SinoSoldier

Colonel
To be fair, the media (even through direct quotes of high military brass) may often misconstrue or incorrectly translate statements.

I don't think that's the case here, and the admiral's statement could easily be dismissed because we all know how laughably in denial the PLA can be even though we all know what's really spinning below (for instance, the whole varyag casino dance, the near complete silence on J-20, etc).

So I wouldn't say the admiral's quotes hold much water anyway, and I myself would certainly be very surprised if they end up waiting three or more years to even start construction, considering we've seen two recent module mockups from two different shipyards.


---

And hendrik, that diplomat report takes a lot of quotes from chinese news sources, which aren't exactly reliable. There are no visual indicators that J-15 is CATOBAR capable, it claims the YJ-62 is a supersonic AShM even though it's subsonic, and far too big for J-15 to carry, not to mention it doesn't even have an air launched variant, and the whole inability to launch from STOBAR with heavy loads rings of inaccuracy too. There are literally incorrect observations from every possible facet, which I suspect is simply a case of bad reporting.

The Admiral's words are probably the best you've got. However, do note that he might have tweaked the way he articulated things. Perhaps what the admiral might be trying to say is that the CV-16 currently is a test ship, but later they might decide to commission it as a full-on war-capable vessel.

Speaking of "sources", there was a military big shrimp who claimed that the first domestic carrier was being built. And it's not always a good idea to trust online sources since the Chinese first claimed that they had no plans to build a carrier, only to backpedal on that a year later.
 

Blitzo

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
The Admiral's words are probably the best you've got.

Nah, they're not. On the subject of carriers and other important weapons PLA high brass have flipflopped quite often. It is the exception when they come out with something that is both realistic and clear cut, which this statement certainly is not.

Speaking of "sources", there was a military big shrimp who claimed that the first domestic carrier was being built. And it's not always a good idea to trust online sources since the Chinese first claimed that they had no plans to build a carrier, only to backpedal on that a year later.

Yes, we all saw that post a few days ago in the carrier construction thread. That post along with the two demo modules that have been sitting at JNCX and DL for who knows how many months, makes me seriously doubt if the PLAN will only start construction on a carrier after multiple years or however long they spend operating liaoning.

Best tool to sieve through the PLA's BS statements is logic.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top