PLAN Aircraft Carrier programme...(Closed)

Bltizo said:

If it/s 1/4 done in terms of overall fitting out of subsystems I think that would make the claimed april 2016 launch sound reasonable.

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You can look at the picture that they are showing, Bltiz, and see that the vessel is not even completed anywhere near up to the flight deck. They are not fitting it out at this stage.. A 2016 launch date for that vessel as a carrier at the stage shown is completely unreasonable IMHO.

Bltizo said:

As for everyone calling this a commercial cargo ship, let's remember that they have to put in all the important subsystems (think engines) before "sealing" the hull up for the flight deck. So there's no reason to rule it it being a carrier just yet..

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That vessel, with the large vacancies in the middile of the hull, at the amount of the hull that is completed, does not look like any carrier I have ever seen built...and I have been watching them with great interest for over 30 years. It does howeve look very much like a bulk carrier, or a tanker.

Perhaps not ruled out absolutely, but clearly very much not looking like a carrier at this date at all IMHO.

Perhaps they are building them differently...but usually, when constructing a carrier or any large naval vessel like this, the equipment that would otherwise need that large of an opening is installed while building, not brought in later after the hull is completed much further along.

You might consider cutting large openings in a vessel for very major refits or overhauls...but it is much more cost effective, and structurally sound at this stage to place that equipment while building.

As a cargo ship, based on when we last saw it a little while ago...it is actually coming along very nicely and would be what one might expect.

One thing puzzles me...............if this photo is genuinely of a carrier..........then how come we havn't had confirmation from anyone.
I mean obviously defence analysts around the world would of seen these pictures, and naval architects would know a carrier, by looking at the build images.
The news would of filtered down to in particular the US media, who would make a big deal of this as a news story......as they have done with other Chinese military developments, such as the stealth fighters and the carrier killer missile. Just saying..its a bit odd!

Jeff Head said:

Well, never mind the fact that that picture's construction itself looks far more like a commercial vessel, let's just address the timeline.

Based on your post, he is saying it is 1/4 done and will be launched next year, right?

Sorry...these carriers take about four years to build...more if it a larger US nuclear carrier. If it is 1/4 done now, there is no way it will launch next year...it would launch in 2018.

But I still do not believe that is a carrier.

Time will tell.

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In his article he mentioned 001A was put on the indoor berth on Aug-28-2013. So, 001A modular construction might actually started much eariler than we thought indoor. I think his article will also be publish in "Modern ships" magazine.

I just checked wikipedia: USS John C. Stennis CVN 74

Laid down: 13 March 1991
Launched: 11 November 1993
Commissioned: 9 December 1995
That's around 32 months =2 years 8 months.

Deino said:

Does this makes more sense ???

Deino

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This comparison has been shown before.

The general outline is similar...but you do not see those large vacancies in the middle of the carrier build. You do in the one shown below it. Those are much more common and expected in a commercial bulk carrier or tanker build.

As I say, to me it looks much more commercial. more so now than it did earlier when we noted that there was no reinforced/ double hull on the vessel.

But...time will tell.

JayBird said:

I just checked wikipedia: USS John C. Stennis CVN 74

Laid down: 13 March 1991
Launched: 11 November 1993
Commissioned: 9 December 1995

That's around 32 months =2 years 8 months.

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Hehehe...now you are comparing apples and oranges.

The John Stennis was the 4th Nimitz carrier built, not the first.

Look at the Nimitz, which was the first class for a closer comparison:

Laid down June 22, 1968
Launched May 13, 1972

That's 3 years 11months.

Look at the recently constructed Ford, another 1st class for a more recent closer com:

Laid Down: Nov 13, 2009
Launched : Nov 9, 2013.

That's right at four years.

Then you spend anywhere from 18-26 months to get them commissioned. The first in class are usually on the long end of that scale.

I believe the PLAN itself has indicated in the past that they expect the build to take four years when they finally do it.

But if we are going to compare...let's look at things that are much more similar. The US has been doing this a long, long time. And for very large and sophisticated CATOBAR carrier.

The PLAN will be doing their very first full sized carrier. If I have learned anything about the Chinese Navy and its planning over the last 15 years, it is that they are very careful about their initial designs for new vessels, and take their time to make sure they get it right. I see no reason why they would rush this...and doing what is being suggested here would in fact be rushing it IMHO.

Jeff Head said:

You can look at the picture that they are showing, Bltiz, and see that the vessel is not even completed anywhere near up to the flight deck. They are not fitting it out at this stage..

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I meant in terms of the total construction, assembly, (launch) and fitting out of subsystems, it could conceivably be seen as 1/4 done.
Obviously they're not at fitting out yet, which is not what I meant.

A 2016 launch date for that vessel as a carrier at the stage shown is completely unreasonable IMHO.

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I think it also depends on whether the shipyard "launches" the ship similar to how the Indians launched Vikrant.
If 001A is launched to a similar degree of (in)completion as Vikrant then an April 2016 launch is not implausible. That said I also doubt it will be launched that early.

That vessel, with the large vacancies in the middile of the hull, at the amount of the hull that is completed, does not look like any carrier I have ever seen built...and I have been watching them with great interest for over 30 years. It does howeve look very much like a bulk carrier, or a tanker.

Perhaps not ruled out absolutely, but clearly very much not looking like a carrier at this date at all IMHO.

Perhaps they are building them differently...but usually, when constructing a carrier or any large naval vessel like this, the equipment that would otherwise need that large of an opening is installed while building, not brought in later after the hull is completed much further along.

You might consider cutting large openings in a vessel for very major refits or overhauls...but it is much more cost effective, and structurally sound at this stage to place that equipment while building.

As a cargo ship, based on when we last saw it a little while ago...it is actually coming along very nicely and would be what one might expect.

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Yep, I don't disagree with any of this, but the way that I've constantly tried to assess this particular DL ship is whether there's anything that can definitively rule it that it is a carrier.
At this stage the attribute most suggestive of it not being a carrier is the remaining "open spaces" in the hull... however we don't know how "filled in" they are at this stage, given the deliberately obfuscation of the spaces themselves. Also, like you said, they may well be constructing the rest of the hull at a slightly faster pace rather than wait for the internals of that part of the ship to be filled in first.
So IMO at this stage I don't see anything that can rule out it from being a carrier.
But if in a few months the top of the hull is sealed off completely I think that would have a good case for ruling out its possibility of being a bulk carrier.

Also I think with every extra month that passes the likelihood of it being a bulk carrier becomes less and less likely IMO, given how quickly other smaller chinese shipyards can produce them.

Jeff Head said:

Hehehe...now you are comparing apples and oranges.

The John Stennis was the 4th Nimitz carrier built, not the first.

Look at the Nimitz, which was the first class for a closer comparison:

Laid down June 22, 1968
Launched May 13, 1972

That's 3 years 11months.

Look at the recently constructed Ford, another 1st class for a more recent closer com:

Laid Down: Nov 13, 2009
Launched : Nov 9, 2013.

That's right at four years.

Then you spend anywhere from 18-26 months to get them commissioned. The first in class are usually on the long end of that scale.

I believe the PLAN itself has indicated in the past that they expect the build to take four years when they finally do it.

But if we are going to compare...let's look at things that are much more similar. The US has been doing this a long, long time. And for very large and sophisticated CATOBAR carrier.

The PLAN will be doing their very first full sized carrier. If I have learned anything about the Chinese Navy and its planning over the last 15 years, it is that they are very careful about their initial designs for new vessels, and take their time to make sure they get it right. I see no reason why they would rush this...and doing what is being suggested here would in fact be rushing it IMHO.

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But 001A is not really a new design or first class like the Nimitz and Ford you mentioned. It's pretty much a slightly enlarged clone of Liaoning. They've spent lots of time researching and studying the Liaoning while refitting it already. We can't treat 001A as a truly first of her class.

Bltizo said:

I meant in terms of the total construction, assembly, (launch) and fitting out of subsystems, it could conceivably be seen as 1/4 done.
Obviously they're not at fitting out yet, which is not what I meant.

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Okay, that is fine.

My point was not that it is not 1/4 finished with construction...it may be. My point was that even if we give them that, according to the first post I responded to on this topic today, they indicated that a moderator at another forum was saying it would be launched in 2016. I simply indicated that if that vessel is 1/4 complete, and if it is a carrier, there is no way it was going to launch in 2015...next year.

The only way it could possibly be launched by 2016 as a carrier (and I do not believe at this point that that is a carrier in the first place), IMHO, would be fpor China to be absoluting rushing it like ti was a life or death war time thing...and I simply do not see that. I have not seen China "rush" any of their naval modernization and buildup.

They have been very methodical and careful. Only building rapid serial builds of large vessels after they have spent years solidifying the initial design..

Anyhow, those is simply my own thoughts.

Bltizo said:

I think it also depends on whether the shipyard "launches" the ship similar to how the Indians launched Vikrant.

If 001A is launched to a similar degree of (in)completion as Vikrant then an April 2016 launch is not implausible. That said I also doubt it will be launched that early.

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Really, Bltiz?

I have seen no indication of China ever launching a half complete vessel the way the Indians initially did the Virkant. They only did the Vikrant that way, IMHO, because they were so absolutely behind even their own schedule that they had to do so to show progeess to the public. IOW, belive it was a PR stunt. I do not see the PLAN doing that.

Bltizo said:

I don't disagree with any of this, but the way that I've constantly tried to assess this particular DL ship is whether there's anything that can definitively rule it that it is a carrier.

At this stage the attribute most suggestive of it not being a carrier is the remaining "open spaces" in the hull... however we don't know how "filled in" they are at this stage, given the deliberately obfuscation of the spaces themselves. IMO at this stage I don't see anything that can rule out it from being a carrier.

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Well, if you read my statements I have carefully not "ruled it out either." I do have more and more confidence that it probably is not a carrier though, and for the reasons I have given.

JayBird said:

But 001A is not really a new design or first class like the Nimitz and Ford you mentioned. It's pretty much a slightly enlarged clone of Liaoning.

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For the Chinese...it most certainly is.

They have never built one. They did not build the Liaoning. They refurbished an almost complete vessel that had already been built, the Varyag. There's a HUGE difference.

I do not expect the PLAN to rush through their first indigenous carrier build.

Time will tell us all when their first indigenous carrier is launched.

Jeff Head said:

Okay, that is fine.

My point was not that it is not 1/4 finished with construction...it may be. My point was that even if we give them that, according to the first post I responded to on this topic today, they indicated that a moderator at another forum was saying it would be launched in 2016. I simply indicated that if that vessel is 1/4 complete, and if it is a carrier, there is no way it was going to launch in 2015...next year.

The only way it could possibly be launched by 2016 as a carrier (and I do not believe at this point that that is a carrier in the first place), IMHO, would be fpor China to be absoluting rushing it like ti was a life or death war time thing...and I simply do not see that. I have not seen China "rush" any of their naval modernization and buildup.

They have been very methodical and careful. Only building rapid serial builds of large vessels after they have spent years solidifying the initial design..

Anyhow, those is simply my own thoughts.

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I suppose we'll see.

Unrelated to that, I do expect by april 2016 we'll have definitive confirmation of whether or not this actually is a carrier.

Really, Bltiz?

I have seen no indication of China ever launching a half complete vessel the way the Indians initially did the Virkant. They only did the Vikrant that way, IMHO, because they were so absolutely behind even their own schedule that they had to do so to show progeess to the public. IOW, belive it was a PR stunt. I do not see the PLAN doing that.

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I doubt that they'll do that either, but I'm trying to rationalize why the original poster might have made that statement.

Well, if you read my statements I have carefully not "ruled it out either." I do have more and more confidence that it probably is not a carrier though, and for the reasons I have given.

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Fair enough. Personally I need a definitive sign ruling out either it being a carrier or any other kind of ship to actually have any kind of influence on my position, because I think there are too many other obscuring factors for me to make any changes in opinion which are not yes/no.