PLAN Aircraft Carrier programme...(Closed)

latenlazy said:

I know where you're coming from, but my take has been that the new school still technically has the upper hand, given the programs we're seeing. The reason, I think, is because the new school's strategy better fits the geopolitical and economic needs that the leadership in China is beginning to realize.

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Well, as I said I'm not insider, but it seems to me that Chinese leadership decided to put a little brake on development of aircraft carriers . Remember how last year we were discussing about second and even third carrier, with some members claiming they were already laid down . And now, everything seems to stand still with Liaoning in port , but on the other hand increasing number of Type 054A frigates and diesel-electric subs are joining PLAN . These are primarily green-water ships, so IMHO looks like old school again has upper hand , at least temporarily .

thunderchief said:

Well, as I said I'm not insider, but it seems to me that Chinese leadership decided to put a little brake on development of aircraft carriers . Remember how last year we were discussing about second and even third carrier, with some members claiming they were already laid down . And now, everything seems to stand still with Liaoning in port , but on the other hand increasing number of Type 054A frigates and diesel-electric subs are joining PLAN . These are primarily green-water ships, so IMHO looks like old school again has upper hand , at least temporarily .

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The aircraft carrier program is moving along just fine for me. The Liaoning is at the shipyard for a routine overhaul, the J-15 is being produced and the pilots are being trained and the carrier borne JL-9G trainer jets are being developed and are entering production. As for the second and third carrier being laid down. That was always speculation on part of the membership here and of the wider internet community. We have never heard anything official about it either from the government, PLAN or the shipyards. So we maybe going ahead of ourselfs on that one.

For an "old school" aproach as you describe it they are taking their time to commission those ships since both the Type 052C Zhengzhou and the Type 054A Yangzhou are months behind schedule for their commissioning since their launch dates. They don't seem to be too worried about conflict breaking out anytime soon.

I hope people understand that for China's carrier program--especially CHINA's, it's a long term plan and a long term process. There's schedules laid down to be adhered to. Does anyone really think that it's really just "oh let's be old-school and stop the carrier thing for a while" and then it stops?

Seeing is believing, but seeing is not everything. I hope people have more logic and common sense before making a judgement/conclusion. Just because you don't see some stuff, does not mean nothing is going on.

It is quite possible to decide : "We are going to postpone construction of second aircraft carrier to 2015 or 2016, let our boys train for a while on Liaoning and on land . Carriers are of secondary importance to us right now, we need to make sure that no hostile naval force could enter First Island Chain" .

Things are not black and white, I'm not saying that any school of thought would suddenly gain complete domination inside PLAN or Chinese government. But, because of shifting international situation, China could decide that possibility of conflict is now higher then before. And, because building large aircraft carrier fleet requires time it is quite possible that China gets stuck in Germany's position before outbreak of WW1 - they did have large fleet of battleships but it was still smaller then British, so it was quite useless for most part of the war except battle of Jutland . Therefore, China could prioritize other naval components for a few years until things clear up .

thunderchief said:

Well, as I said I'm not insider, but it seems to me that Chinese leadership decided to put a little brake on development of aircraft carriers . Remember how last year we were discussing about second and even third carrier, with some members claiming they were already laid down . And now, everything seems to stand still with Liaoning in port , but on the other hand increasing number of Type 054A frigates and diesel-electric subs are joining PLAN . These are primarily green-water ships, so IMHO looks like old school again has upper hand , at least temporarily .

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How about something as simple as waiting for the air wing? So while that is happening, shipyards still need to stay productive or face layoffs and loss of talent.

And did they increase the number of 054As? Or are they simply just finishing up the last remaining hulls?

joshuatree said:

How about something as simple as waiting for the air wing? So while that is happening, shipyards still need to stay productive or face layoffs and loss of talent.

And did they increase the number of 054As? Or are they simply just finishing up the last remaining hulls?

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hmmm a very good point. I do hope PLAN doesn't built more 054A ... PLAN needs to move on to a newer design e.g 054B or 057 ... I'd like to see new PLAN frigate (either 054B or 057) similar to British Type 26 frigate and IEP (note: Type 26 propulsion is not IEP)

Video: From a different perspective of making J-15 (Please auto do an auto translation from Chinese transcribes)

[video]http://zt.voc.com.cn/Topic/article/201408/201408021944464845.html[/video]

joshuatree said:

How about something as simple as waiting for the air wing? So while that is happening, shipyards still need to stay productive or face layoffs and loss of talent.

And did they increase the number of 054As? Or are they simply just finishing up the last remaining hulls?

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I don't buy that . I takes couple of years to finish aircraft carrier - if China had laid down second carrier last year they would still have enough time to build air wing with current production of J-15 .

As for Type 054A, we should wait and see, but there is substantial number of them already.

thunderchief said:

I don't buy that . I takes couple of years to finish aircraft carrier - if China had laid down second carrier last year they would still have enough time to build air wing with current production of J-15 .

As for Type 054A, we should wait and see, but there is substantial number of them already.

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Without a complete air wing for even the first carrier to go kick the tires, they could start building the second carrier but it would be premised on a huge leap of faith that they won't discover any adjustments, refinements, improvements from operating the first one. Eventually, you will need all the other components like the 052Ds, 054As, subs, to protect the carrier so it's still progress in the right direction even if they put off building the second carrier in favor of speeding up production of other units.

I believe the PLAN has already made the decision to build multiple carriers and that they are going to be utilized in more of a power projection role. I personally believe that that train has already left the station.

They are putting all of the pieces of that puzzle together to make it a reality...and that takes time. Many years.

Time to build all of the initial components (including the initial air wing). Time to test those components together and develop operational plans and policies. Time to revise those things as they encounter unforeseen difficulties. Time to build the second and third carrier groups and enough aircraft to deploy on them,...and to train enough personnel ion all of these specialties to operate them.

When a second carrier starts building...we will know about it within a few months at the longest. Talk of a carrier already being built has, to date, been just that...talk. That does not mean they have "paused," or that they are "rethinking things," IMHO. More likely that they have planned this gap for a long time as they consolidate what they already have, develop proper operational, logistic, and personnel plans for it and the future, and then move forward. I expect they will build a second carrier, have it launched and in trials, and be well along on a third before 2020 get here.

But time will tell.

One thing I believe is sure for the PLAN, short of some type of horrible world-wide financial or other calamity, the PLAN will take their time and do it right when they get around to it. And their getting around to it will be a part of a very deliberate planning, building and deploying strategy that we simply are not privy to.