No, I did not consider your personal views insulting. Merely frustrated seeing even a knowledgeable person like you are too often showing your American-centric mindset on how the world should do things, that if Chinese marines don't tie their shoelace exactly like the US marines, they are not doing it right. Please do not take offence for I also had experiences of Hong Kong colleagues claiming I am too westernized in mindset which amused me to no end.
My American mindset has nothing to do with it either. No one has said that the Chinese have to or should do it the way the US did. The US went through a much longer, much more laborious process through numerous classes to get to nucler power, and are now on the 3rd iteration of that. Despite what you say, when you make such statements classifying me and my so-called, "american mind-set," it makes it pretty clear that your yourself are seeing this through a fairly thickly shaded set of glasses.
rolking said:
Again, did the foreign experts, also with years of experience in US defence industry and superb knowledge in fighters design and aerodynamics physics feel the Chinese PLAAF is ready and comfortable to field J-20 in 2011?? Does the electromagnetic physics behind Chinese 052C and KJ-2000 AESA work any different from the rest of the world, even the Martians??
None of that has anything to do with this. They are simply straw man arguements to try and drive home your own points.
Many Americans, myself included, have stated many times that the PRC should not be underestimated and that they are progressing more quickly than some analysts have said or projected.
So what? We could each find numerous examples of bad projections, and then try and use those alone as a hammer to drive our nails home. But they are not a basis for making future projections either. Just being sure the Chinese will do it, or that they are even capable of doing it, is not the basis either.
As I stated to you, I base my projections on what is clear, historical evidence, based on my own technical experience, and based on the realities of the technologies that have to be developed and fielded to make this sort of thing a reality. Nothing more or less.
The key difference is they are in catch-up mode, not affording waiting to be “comfortable” in current level before proceeding to the next level.
One may even argue that Chinese made their “pre-mature 1st attempt” precisely because they knew the enormous difficult task facing them and thus making an early start.
So? All the more reason for them to presicely NOT rush ahead IMHO and try and either eliminate "steps," or jump forward. We are dealing with very difficult technologies...no matter who does it...and large sums of treasure and people's life in this. Pride alone will not overcome those things...nor will it necessarily lead to things to be "proud of," unless all of that other is considered and taken into account. Generally people writing in magazines and public articles are not that deep into this type of planning. They are on the outside looking in and trying to project things based on a limited amount of information.
I know that the Chinese planners burden themselves with ensuring that they do not push ahead too quiickly and that they take all of this into account. It is what the technical people planning things far in advance have to do...otherwise, what they attempt to do in pride, may turn to their shame...no matter what nationality, culture, creed or race they come from.
Look, rolking, I have never contended that you cannot be right. I have simply shared with you my view. And it is not going to change as a result of these types of arguements.
Time will tell...and in that time we will see what the PLAN develops and how they proceed. No sense in hashing it out any more at this point. Let's just let it take its course and then talk about it as it happens.
