PLAN Aircraft Carrier programme...(Closed)

Not easy for Defence planners to project the effectiveness of the Carriers in the long term future (say 20 years and beyond). In this age of hi-tech and the use of space weaponry, Carriers could gradually become obsolete. They are good for power projections for now and the next 2 decades perhaps. Futuristic warfare will become a norm soon enough. An example is the use of drones. Anyway, this is just my point of view & there will other viewpoints among our professional commenters of this blog.

chuck731 said:

Once the Russians decided to ditch plans to update the Su-33 in favor of the Mig-29K on their own carrier, mainly on account of limitation of a older carrier they were going to hoist onto the Indians, Liaoning had became significantly more potent carrier than the Kuznetsov. No matter how they spin the Mig-29K, this can't help but highlight the fact tha Russians really can't fully afford a carrier like the Kuznetsov, while China can fully afford the Liaoning.

That must be very gulling, and make Putin's boasts of 4-8 large carriers in twenty years sound even more hollow.

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Jeff Head said:

The PRC spoke of a cross-Pacific voyage for her earlier this year.

My own bet is that something like that will not happen in any case until they have their air wing worked up proper.

As to the Kuznetsov, as I mentioned to Kwaig, since she is going into a 3-4 year refit soon, it would probably not happen until after that in any case.

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Chinese People are very proud of what they have achieved. Every little step is brought to the public as a great leap forward. So I think they will send her two or threetimes on a voyage to far countries until she will be used for business as usual (training and development). But first she needs some aircraft.

Intrepid said:

Chinese People are very proud of what they have achieved. Every little step is brought to the public as a great leap forward. So I think they will send her two or threetimes on a voyage to far countries until she will be used for business as usual (training and development). But first she needs some aircraft.

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Not sure if that was a pun...but let's hope it's not that kind of a Great Leap Forward.

Dear all,

I will share my comments regarding the CV-16 and Kutz on recent forum members views regarding the likes of Liaoning and Adr Kutz together...

Coincidently this view is also shared by the guest analyst (Fang Bin) from my fav Military Analyst programme.

[video=youtube;GkPAjWzOcp0]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GkPAjWzOcp0[/video]

This series covers Soviet aircraft carriers / heli carriers / crusier CVs (Moskva class and Kiev class past two days) including the Kutz classes which was aired yesterday. The guests summaries (@ 40:40) that after the disband of USSR, alon came the seperation of its sateillie states. The military industrial system of the USSR was that, decisions from the top were made by the officials from Moscow, as for ship building, notablely all CVs were laid down, fitted out and tested in Ukraine - Nikolayev Shipbuilding Enterprises. There were also many different states which produced different parts and systems (weapons, radar, logistics, air support grp...etc) in order to completely built these CV projects. The disband of USSR meant that "a single point of failure" caused the disruption in completing the Varyag. Either the factories closed down due to independent of other states or unwilling to cooperation from these newly formed states to its former master.

In the early days of formation of Russia Federation, both Russia and Ukraine PMs met to discuss about the possibly of completing Varyag once again, but both counterparts disagreed over fundings. And also the former chief of Blacksea Shipyard once said, "Without the revivial of USSR, Varyag is dead!" After its journey without its own power under the help of tugboat, it began sailing to China and the journey was not a bit smooth as we all know.

However, why could China successfully assembled back the Varyag and transform it into Liaoning is due to massive size of China's shipbuilding industries alongside other auxillary service industries which are essential for a CV. Unlike USSR, China has been expanding all its heavy industries all rounded ever since the 50s, the industries standards are progressive and results are mostly positive. Unlike USSR, China dont face independent of several states now and therefore its core assembly lines with all related essential systems are intact, hence China is able to complete the Liaoning, and even better to its original design. Russia on the hand, its related industries faced a complete reset after its induction since 1991, hencefore there was $$$ issue in its early state whereas the 90s saw the slow growth of Chinese economy in all sector allowing them to "build" the foundations of embarking into a CV research project and then into refitting present CV-16.

This military expert FB lastly shares his view that over the last 3 decades, China has been building up all the essential industries in supporting the likes of refitting CV-16; hence with the present CV commissioned, it mean a possibility of using those experiences gathered to build an indigenious CV will have lesser hassle with the present of these neccessary conditions.

NOTE: Due to time concerns, I cant really translate word for word like I used to in the past. Vacations only happens half yearly once

A few weeks ago, in Marine Forum Daily News IIRC, I read that the start of the refit of Adm K has been delayed till 2018, so she has time to pass North of Siberia to the Pacific, perhaps winter there and return the next year. How well will Vladivostok naval yard be able to support her?
I think of the possibility that the delay is caused by a plan to incorporate Chinese EM cats in her. If these are built in the carriers now building in China ....

delft said:

A few weeks ago, in Marine Forum Daily News IIRC, I read that the start of the refit of Adm K has been delayed till 2018, so she has time to pass North of Siberia to the Pacific, perhaps winter there and return the next year. How well will Vladivostok naval yard be able to support her?
I think of the possibility that the delay is caused by a plan to incorporate Chinese EM cats in her. If these are built in the carriers now building in China ....

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A little far fetched IMHO.

While I don't doubt that china is well and advanced in its EM cat development, the idea that they'd be willing to export it, or that Russia would be willing to buy a relatively immature product, is unlikely. Not to mention the difficulty of reaffirming kuznetsov with the equipment for EM cat will be difficult at best.

And the first two PLAN carriers are supposedly going to be STOBAR... But that is one among many recent rumours and frankly previous rumours also mention CATOBAR so I'm not sure what to believe until we actually see the first complete flight deck.

Jeff Head said:

I have not said they are unwilling. '

But the Kuznetsov is based on the other side of the world. She rarely gets into the Pacific. A joint exercise with the Chinese carrier however would be a good reason to bring her there. Short of that, I believe the Liaoning ultimately will travel outside of the Pacific for goodwill, and as a emblem of the PRC. So the Russian carrier may end up having exercises with her in that event.

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If the Kuznetsov is able over the next few years to make a summer transit of the Russian Arctic coast to reach the North Pacific, I can easily see both Carriers meeting for joint exercises.

Such a transit and meeting under those conditions would send the package of messages that both participants most wish to convey.

Even today we are faced with carriers from China and India two big powers who are using flat tops of the Soviet Navy

In a way it's better we see them like this rather than what could have been from the Soviet Navy a huge flat top fleet in the making toward the end of the collapse

Shows how powerful the Soviet Union would have been on the highs seas

2 Moskva Class
4 Kiev Class
2 Admiral Kuznetsov
And 1 Ulyanovsk

That's 9 flat tops with the the last 3 pretty good true aircraft carriers, it was a learning curve for Soviets with the first two Moskva giving the experience of the flat tops with the Kiev Clas being good ASW platforms we all know the Yak was crap

The Two Kuznetsov carriers were built on lessons from the Kievs not exactly brilliant but again the Ulyanovsk was the real deal with cats and traps

That's a pretty powerful navy

asif iqbal said:

Even today we are faced with carriers from China and India two big powers who are using flat tops of the Soviet Navy

In a way it's better we see them like this rather than what could have been from the Soviet Navy a huge flat top fleet in the making toward the end of the collapse

Shows how powerful the Soviet Union would have been on the highs seas

2 Moskva Class
4 Kiev Class
2 Admiral Kuznetsov
And 1 Ulyanovsk

That's 9 flat tops with the the last 3 pretty good true aircraft carriers, it was a learning curve for Soviets with the first two Moskva giving the experience of the flat tops with the Kiev Clas being good ASW platforms we all know the Yak was crap

The Two Kuznetsov carriers were built on lessons from the Kievs not exactly brilliant but again the Ulyanovsk was the real deal with cats and traps

That's a pretty powerful navy

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The Soviet Union towards its end in 1991 had 2 Moskva's, 4 Kievs and 1 Admiral Kuznetsov in service. The second hull of the Admiral Kuznetsov class was floating but only about 68% finished and the Ulyanovsk was still in the drydock only about 40% finished. The Admiral Kuznetsov didn't have its air wing yet and the Yak-38 Forgers was redrawn from service by that time. The MiG-29K, SU-33 and the Yak-41 Freestyle were all in the development and prototype phase. The Soviet Union had 7 flat tops in service. But none of them had a fixed wing aircraft air wing on board.

The Chinese and the Indians got good deals. China got the Varyag hull for only 20 million dollars and the Indians did even better by getting the Admiral Gorshkov hull for free. The Indians did however ended up paying 2,33 billion dollars for the refurbishment of the ship and another 700 million dollars for the 16 MiG-29K's. That's a grand total of 3 billion dollars. China has poured untold billions of dollars into the Liaoning as they had to build an entirely new drydock for her refurbishment and then there is the J-15 project and not to mention the carrier flight school.

Yes I am aware of the progress Soviet Union was making in flat tops which is why I said "could" and "would" have had if they did not collapse