PLAN 2nd & 3rd Aircraft Carrier wager & planning

Jeff,

What is the closing date for the wager?

t2contra said:

Jeff,

What is the closing date for the wager?

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Well...the first post on this thread makes the dates pretty clear.

The Conditions said:

CONDITIONS OF THE SD 2ND/3RD PLAN CARRIER WAGER:

1) If a second carrier is not seen being built somewhere in the PRC by September 1st, 2016, then PanAsian's persuasion wins the wager hands down. If that build does occur, then the best Pan Asian can get out of the deal is a draw.

2) If a 3rd carrier begins building before June 1st 2020, PanAsian loses the wager hands down.

Any other outcome produces a draw.

RESULTS OF THE WAGER (WHAT'S AT STAKE):

If the people indictating that a 2nd/3rd carrier will not be built lose:

They post a profile picture: of multiple Chinese carriers, and keep it for a year.

If the people indicating that a 2nd/3rd carrier will be built lose:

The post a profile picture of a no circle/slash over a Chinese carrier, and keep it up for a year.

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Well kiddies we are @ carrier 2 minus 326 days. That means if this mystery ship is confirmed to be the second PLAN carrier group 2 wins, if however no ship is completely and without a doubt confirmed as a new carrier under construction in the next 10months give or take.
then the slow carrier group as its first win.
September 1 2016 is the magic day. Coincides with a solar eclipse. So will the moons shadow fall on a new carrier hull? Is it a omen of a slow program? Or a new beginning?

TerraN_EmpirE said:

Well kiddies we are @ carrier 2 minus 326 days. That means if this mystery ship is confirmed to be the second PLAN carrier group 2 wins, if however no ship is completely and without a doubt confirmed as a new carrier under construction in the next 10months give or take.
then the slow carrier group as its first win.
September 1 2016 is the magic day. Coincides with a solar eclipse. So will the moons shadow fall on a new carrier hull? Is it a omen of a slow program? Or a new beginning?

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Not exactly -- the way the wager is set up, is that if the ship at DL is not confirmed to be a carrier by September 1st, 2016, but ends up being confirmed after that date, the people in the multiple carrier group would have a "win".
As Jeff described in the first post:

In both cases, if construction photos are shown before the deadlines for the 2nd or the 3rd carriers, that are only actually verified to be the carriers later than the deadlines, as long as they were pointed out before the deadlines, if they do turn out to be a carrier later they will count.

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For example, hypothetically speaking, by 1st September 2016, the ship might still not have its island and flight deck fully set up, and some doubt might still exists as to whether it is a carrier or not. But if by mid 2017 , the island and flight deck are fully visible and there is no doubt it is a carrier -- in that case, then the earliest date of construction identification would revert back to when we first spotted 001A under construction, early this year, and the multiple carrier group would have a win.

In other words, for the purposes of the bet, the important dates are not the actual "confirmation date" of whether a ship is a carrier, but rather the "date of first identification of a confirmed carrier under construction". In the case of 001A, if the ship at DL is confirmed to be a carrier (even after 1st September 2016), then the first pictures identifying the carrier under construction would be the date which is used for the wager -- aka 22nd Apriil, 2015, which was when the first blurred pictures of the beginning of construction at DL emerged.

I just did a bit more thinking -- hypothetically speaking, the latest that this wager can be concluded could end up being in the early 2020s.

The original terms of this wager stipulates "if construction photos are shown before the deadlines for the 2nd or the 3rd carriers, that are only actually verified to be the carriers later than the deadlines, as long as they were pointed out before the deadlines, if they do turn out to be a carrier later they will count."

Assuming that the 2nd carrier is under construction as the hull in DL, then the best that the single carrier group can get is a draw, so the next thing to wait for would be the 3rd carrier... if we start getting pictures of construction (say, at JNCX) of some modules starting to get put together only in early 2020, it could take a year or two for the hull at JNCX to be confirmed as a carrier, meaning it could be 2022 or 2023 until the people in the single carrier group have to change their DPs... I wonder if SDF will still be around eight years from now.

I got it B I was mostly posting to keep the thread active. Personally I don't view it as a singular bet but rather two bets for the first bet the Date of sept 1 2016 is like a end of submission date for potential construction not the date of christening. If October 30th rolls around and this mystery ship is completed as some other ship. They roll it out of the yard and on October 31 lay the first module of what turns out to be a carrier then slow carrier just looses. but if the first modules of a new carrier are laid in early april of 2017 then slow wins. the first bet.
second bet is the harder and the one I am more iffy on.

Everyone, as I said in my post

#4617 HERE on this THREAD

(Please read it and all the details I gave)

...and after this latest picture with the first hanger section lifted onto the hull, I have now announced my own confirmation that, from my perspective, this vessel is the 1st indigenous Chinese carrier, and will be a follow-on to the Liaoning.

Drum roll please.....


I see that great American Jeff Head has come to the conclusion that the ship in question is indeed an PLAN CV...What do I think??..I know inquiring minds want to know...

The more I see the ship the more I think it MAY be an carrier. Now if I could see the stern and see that she has at least two screws I'd give my blessing. Right now I'm not 100% sure..but I am leaning towards that this ship is indeed an aircraft carrier. As more of the upper decks are built the more I will be convinced that this ship is the real deal.

Of course all this suspense could be eleviated IF the PLAN had a media conference and officially announced to the Naval world.."we are building an aircraft carrier".. but that would be no fun.

I'm out and on vacation which does not start officially until Wednesday..but since I'm retired I can goof off as I please.

No one's going to see me concede the bet until all the evidence is in, even if just for a draw!

Ultimately I am curious to see how and how well CV's fit into China's grand strategy. If any Chinese carriers eventually demonstrate themselves to be white elephants or sitting ducks my assessment would still be vindicated regardless of when and how many Chinese carriers get built.