When I first read Jeff's view I thought, this guy's too pessimistic. But then I realized that it's already 2015, only 15 years till 2030.
I do agree with him. 15 years is too soon for China to have a fully operational nuclear carrier, especially their nuclear submarines are still quite primitive compared to NATO and Russian counterparts. You need to be able to make an effective sub reactor before you can make one powerful enough to push a 80,000+ tons carrier at 30+ knots.
But having said that, it's not impossible that China have had planned or even began early stage construction on a nuclear carrier by then. Since China is putting a lot of money and effort into it. It would be hard to believe a country with such sophisticated heavy industry not able to come up with a nuclear carrier in 20 years.
So having one circling the globe by 2030 is a bit too soon, but 2040 is highly plausible.
The news about the chinese navalized nuclear reactor is completely opaque, we know NOTHING about it so far. All we know is that
rumor of an accident on board the Type 092 that happened almost 30 years ago. We don't know anything about their naval reactor design.
What we do know so far is the number of nuclear powered vessels they have constructed so far:
5 Type 091 SSN, 1 Type 092 SSBN, 6 Type 093 SSN, 5 Type 094 SSBN. So, 17 nuclear powered vessels so far. But only 2 generations of design lineage. The number and generation count - as the more you build and use, the more you understand and realize the faults and improve upon it. The accumulated experience also goes in a long way in how to improve the design.
That's not to say China cannot leapfrog and surprise everyone with more than 2 nuclear CVNs by 2030 - China currently outspent ANYONE on the planet in investing in nuclear technologies and reactor designs - not only in the number of reactors under construction (23!) but also the varieties of designs (
CPR-1000, AP1000, EPR, CAP1400, ACPR1000, CANDU-60, VVER-1000). A lot of these technologies, designs and concepts would be translated into their military reactor design for sure, improve upon the reliability, safety, and production processes tremendously. More than anything, China has the most variety of reactor designs of any country so far.
This is actually quite similar to their the high speed train development - they have acquired the most variety of high speed train designs of any country on the planet - , ; after acquiring and producing these high speed train sets locally, they are now starting to design and produce their own. They are starting to innovate.
Let's not forget how China tends to do things - when they do it, they throw everything in - China now has 19,369 km of in total. The next country with the most HSR line is spain with only 3100 km so far, and Japan with 2664 km the third.
So whether 2030 we will see 2 or more nuclear CVNs is anyone's guess. I think the chance is 50/50. As they build more and more reactors of different designs, their technology and understanding will mature, accelerating their development on navalized nuclear reactor design.
