PLAN 2nd & 3rd Aircraft Carrier wager & planning

delft said:

It makes sense to concentrate the experience at one shipyard, a matter of industrial policy, and it doesn't make sense to produce a carrier once every year and a half, because that demands a huge peak in training effort. On the other hand JN is a new and large shipyard that might well be better suited than the yard that produces 071's. So LHA/D's might be built there. As China doesn't have the inhibitions wrt cats or ski ramps that's handicapping their US counter parts such ships might look like aircraft carriers. Indeed they might be as large as CdG.
So my arguments are practical. I have no alternative source of information.

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I see.

Even if we ignore the rumours of the last few years (which are different to what you propose), there's no reason why HD cannot build 40k ton LHA/Ds.
The fact that JN is new and large does not mean there is any reason for them to build LHA/Ds over carriers.
And it actually makes some sense for the PLAN to have two competing shipyards as contractors for carriers, not only for the sake of competitiveness but also to have a greater pool of skilled workers.

I also don't think the PLAN will produce one carrier every year and a half even if both shipyards produce carriers. It will take a shipyard four years or so from being laid down to being launched, so at most, assuming eventual simultaneous production of carriers from both JN and DL it will be more like one carrier every two years. But obviously that won't happen, what's more likely is that each shipyard will have other contracts in between carriers as well.

Bltizo said:

I see.

Even if we ignore the rumours of the last few years (which are different to what you propose), there's no reason why HD cannot build 40k ton LHA/Ds.
The fact that JN is new and large does not mean there is any reason for them to build LHA/Ds over carriers.
And it actually makes some sense for the PLAN to have two competing shipyards as contractors for carriers, not only for the sake of competitiveness but also to have a greater pool of skilled workers.

I also don't think the PLAN will produce one carrier every year and a half even if both shipyards produce carriers. It will take a shipyard four years or so from being laid down to being launched, so at most, assuming eventual simultaneous production of carriers from both JN and DL it will be more like one carrier every two years. But obviously that won't happen, what's more likely is that each shipyard will have other contracts in between carriers as well.

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Nikolaev South needed three years, December 6, 1985 to December 4, 1988, from laying down to launch ( ) and I would be surprised if more modern shipyards would need more time. The rumour was that a Dalian official said that building an aircraft carrier would cost six years. That would leave three years for fitting out, which doesn't look unreasonable.

The talk of building carriers in parallel at two yards and of how long it takes from laying down to launch made me curious: how many carriers do you think China will launch till 1/1/2030 ?

Some members seem to assume the following:
- the first carrier is already building
- it takes 4 years (or less) until launch and another 4 years (or less) outfitting
(during which another carrier could be laid down)
- a second shipyard will soon follow with a second carrier (perhaps starting in 2017)

If that level of carrier building were to keep up until 2030, carriers could be launched in
2019,2021,2023,2025,2027,2029,... and completed in 2023,2025,2027,2029,..
assuming only 3 years to launch the rate would be even more impressive:
2018,2020,2021,2023,2024,2026,2027,2029,....

My personal opinion is that China doesn't urgently need a lot of aircraft carriers, so I expect a much slower buildup with the first carrier launching ~2020 and a second only ~2025.
I would also expect one shipyard to be choosen as the yard for "carrier building", so that the relevant skills can be kept up to date and passed on to new hires.

So my question to you all, how many new carriers do you think China will launch till 1/1/2030 ?
- less than 3
- 3 to 4
- 5 to 6
- 7 or even more ?

delft said:

So I expect the evidence for building the second indigenous flattop to appear well before 2020.

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So, then, you want me to list you in the group saying that that will be so?

schenkus said:

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My personal opinion is that China doesn't urgently need a lot of aircraft carriers, so I expect a much slower buildup with the first carrier launching ~2020 and a second only ~2025.
I would also expect one shipyard to be choosen as the yard for "carrier building", so that the relevant skills can be kept up to date and passed on to new hires.

So my question to you all, how many new carriers do you think China will launch till 1/1/2030 ?
- less than 3
- 3 to 4
- 5 to 6
- 7 or even more ?

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I expect 001A to be launched before 2020, with evidence of its construction appearing by the latter part of next year. I expect 002 to be launched a few years after 2020, with evidence of its construction appearing before 2020.

In terms of how many carriers China will launch by 2020, I think by 2030 China will have three carriers commissioned (001 Liaoning, 001A from DL, 002 from JN), and also another one fitting out or in sea trials (another 002 unit, possibly from DL), and possibly the first nuclear carrier under construction.

I expect a gap period of a year or more for both DL and JN in terms of carrier construction, that is to say they won't constantly be building carriers the entire time for the next decade or two. In the end I expect a carrier force of 5-6 total... depending on how the economy fares. The question is whether 001 and 001A will remain in service for their full shelf lives or if the navy might mothball them early and build some more capable, and what will be more mature, at that time, CATOBAR carriers to replace them without missing too much of a beat. In which case we might see continued carrier production up to 2040. On the other hand, if 001 and 001A remain in service for a full 40 years, we might see carrier production end by the early 2030s and only pick up again post 2050.

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whoops, sorry jeff, only saw your post after I posted. Maybe move this reply, and the last few pages of replies, to the carrier thread?

We'll leave them for now...as long as we get back on topic at this point.

I am incline to the idea of PLAN will own a second carrier and more.

Chinese Ministry of Defence spokesperson Sen Col Yang Yujun once answered reporters that China will own not just one carrier. They will develop a second one based on economics and defense needs.

The second carrier is being unofficially labelled 001A in some Chinese forums, so the second one will be a indigeniously produced carrier from head to toe. Do not expect any great changes from CV-16.

Jeff Head said:

So, then, you want me to list you in the group saying that that will be so?

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yes!

schenkus said:

So my question to you all, how many new carriers do you think China will launch till 1/1/2030 ?
- less than 3
- 3 to 4
- 5 to 6
- 7 or even more ?

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3 to 4: a pair of conventional carriers the Liaoning and a Liaoning-Mod, one CVN-1 and possibly a CVN-1-Mod assuming the CVN-1 has been around long enough and performed well enough to warrant an improved sister ship.