What we are saying is that China should do no major visible buildup. It will normalize major exercises around the region so that it can initiate conflict on its terms when certain red line gets crossed and the other side wouldn't know for sure that something is coming.
Again, only applicable if the US allows China the initiative of attacking when it suits China’s timetable.
You seem to have no concept of how much time USN or PLAN boats spend in the port or under repairs. US navy uses its fleet very excessively which leads to long downtimes after completion of mission. This is not a matter of luck. This is just regular reality. Stuff breaks down after 9 months missions around the world. Even aside from that, forward deployed operational fleet still spend good chunk of their time in port.
Surely you can appreciate the difference between peacetime, regularly scheduled programming and wartime emergency measures?
Things break on ships and crews need rest and rotation sure, but are you telling me that should the proverbial truly hit the fan, and it becomes a matter of getting ships out of port or loosing them, that the USN cannot scramble to get ships out to sea? It doesn’t matter if half the crew are missing and none of the weapons work, if they can put out to sea and stay within the protective umbrella of a friendly fleet, they got a far higher chance of survival than sitting tied up at port. And they don’t need to go far or into combat, just relocate somewhere else to finish repais. If Japan is no good, there is Guam, Pearl, San Diego, even the US east coast. How far do you want to chase them just to get a few cheap kills?
And even if there are a few ships so run down and broken down they literally couldn’t get out of the harbour to save their own lives, how much difference would killing them in port really make?
Even for ships in the sea, you want to hit them when they are not prepared. Aside from hypersonic missiles being harder to intercept, they also give defender less time to move from their original spot and set up defense.
And that’s what the 093Bs should be focused on doing, rather than wasting their element of surprise and munitions on fixed targets that so many other platforms and weapons can hit just as effectively.
They would achieve far more damage and disruption quietly laying mines than launching a few big missiles.
Why would hitting San Diego be excessive? US military will hit targets in China on the mainland. As such, PLA needs to be planning the same.
Sure, direct kinetic hits on CONUS targets will generate significant psychological impact and may also bag a few juicy targets in the form of principle capital ships like LHD/As or even a carrier, but at what risk and cost for the PLAN assets involved?
The US has a vast and well established network of allies, bases and forward deployed forces on China’s front doorstep, as well as the world’s biggest SSN and SSG fleets to allow it to hit the Chinese mainland. But even with all that going for them, we are looking at a pretty realistic scenario where the US military gets rolled back all the way to Guam if not further just from the opening exchanges in any shooting war.
How does China plan to attack the US west coast with zero bases or allies, all the while needing to get past the US allies, fleets, subs and sonar networks in the pacific?
Lone subs have the best chance to sneak past, but have limited munitions to achieve much real impact and would be at great peril once they reveal themselves so close to the US homeland. They will have USN SSNs and MPAs swarming after them.
Maybe that’s a goal to try and keep US forces in their front yard chasing shadows instead of massing on yours, and there would be some merit and worth to that. But also risks and costs, because those US forces will only stay close to home if you keep hitting them at home. All the while they will be looking to push you back so as soon as you stop threatening their r they are going to push back towards you.
All of this sounds very familiar because it’s what the German surface fleet tried to do in WWII and failed. Sending lone ships deep into enemy territory unsupported makes it very likely those lone ships will die out there, and most likely for minimal cost to the enemy.
Lets not even start on how risky and unwise it would be to send surface ships or carrier groups to try to hit San Diego.
The best asset for such deep strikes would be SSGNs, and maybe H20s if they are intercontinental ranged, which once in position can spam enough missiles to have a good chance of doing enough damage to make the whole thing worthwhile. But it’s more likely China would save the SSGN hulls for SSBNs and use H20s for nuclear deterrence first rather than conventional strike against San Diego, because again priorities. China should be a lot more worried about US nuclear blackmail or brinkmanship in the event of a major conventional loss. Which is precisely what they are focusing on, rather than doubling down trying to get a slightly bigger conventional win.
We do not know what 093B capabilities are. But if it can get into open ocean without being tailed and has a VLS module with 1500nm ASBM, then it should be used to attack US naval fleet that are getting worked up. Keep in mind that it will take over 40 days for US navy to prepare a fleet to come in Taiwan's aid. If you are PLA, you want to disrupt that process if you can.
Yes, now we are talking, that’s what the 093Bs could and should be doing besides providing ASW support for PLAN surface fleets, not waste their time, potential and munitions shooting fish in a barrel that trying to hit ships in US forward deployed ports that couldn’t move in the event of a shooting war between the US and China would be.
