Man, I could only wish that he is still with us in this forum today. Really want to hear his (and various actors in Washington DC's) thoughts on the B-21.
Can anyone still get a hold on him today?
PLA strike strategies in westpac HIC
- Thread starter SEAD
- Start date
Can anyone still get a hold on him today?
broadsword
Brigadier
@tphuang
Late, late corrigendum:
I meant to write, "From someone writing long posts, that says a lot."
I don't have the habit of spellchecking.
Imo, you're coloring WESTPAC with shades of Ukraine. In this theater, that initial high intensity phase will determine everything. It's not gonna matter what any residual 'last man/sub/frigate' does, even if it tries to fight.
Unlike Ukraine, there's not gonna be a feeble opening phase with a long drawn out 20th century wrestling match that follows. The mass fires in the first days will be unprecedented. We have not yet seen what 21st century warfare actually looks like. This type of systems-warfare has never occurred in history. This is the actual present and future of warfare. The problem is that there's only 2 nations on the board which understand this right now. Everyone else will catch up eventually.
Given the above, this should affect the rest of your argument. If there was a war right now, the chances are that China will win that initial high intensity phase, and therefore, the war. So why hasn't it launched? I think it may be because China knows it can win without launching a war. Look the Cold War. The US didn't have to launch a war on the Soviets for them to collapse.
I think that's a very dangerous assumption to make. The US won't deploy the entirety of its forces in the western Pacific where they'll be in range of a Chinese lightning strike. China will have to deal with the US forces out of theatre even if it destroys the forces near it at 100% with zero losses of its own.
More importantly, you should never plan to have things go your way. Always plan to prevail even if every single deck is stacked against you.
Correct. The opening phase will be at a ferocity unseen in history. Even then, there will still be survivors and forces outside the theatre brought in. China must have a plan to deal with them.
The war I envisage is decades from now, when China imposes the control it has today on the FIC over the Second and its military dwarfs what it is today.
That war may never come. The situation might be so bleak for the US that it gives up without a fight. However, winning without fighting requires planning to win the fight decisively.
There are several issues here:
1) You don't need to destroy the "entirety" of anything, just the part that's relevant to the fight.
2) If you destroy the logistics capacity (which is one of the primary targets), you destroy the capacity to redeploy/reinforce
3) Intercontinental conventional strikes to destroy key assets and nodes outside of the theater will be part of the 1st wave anyway (no one is assuming that a war in this theater means all strikes will be confined to this geographic area.)
Yep, and the initial high intensity phase is going to be the decisive part.
Something worthy to take note of. The Aleutian Island Chain spanning across the south of Bering Sea betwen Kamchatka and Alaska is the key gateway for access into the Arctic from the Pacific, plus becoming a powerful naval chokepoint that would benefit whichever side that controls it just like the GIUP gap in the North Atlantic.
Similarly to what I have mentioned in a previous post somewhere in this forum, China and Russia needs to step up their economic and security cooperation in the Bering Sea and the Arctic Ocean. That freezing ocean up north with newly opened shipping lanes and large untapped oil and gas fields is going to be the new battlefront between NATO and China-Russia for the coming decades.
i would like to continue to discuss NTC's main mission here, especially with regard to Korea. We normally think ROK will likely to stay out of US-China conflict, does that view hold water?
For NTCAF to strike Japan from northeast China or Shandong, they need to first secure their flank. USAAF has 3 squadrons stationed in Kunsan/Osan, if unchecked, they could intercept PLAAF strike aircrafts.
If PLA preempt Kunsan/Osan and cause collateral damage to ROK during the process, will South Koreans continue to stand still?
With all the possibilities in calculation, would PLA just preempt all major cmd/comm/air defense/airbases in SK? or they will wait to see what happen and handover the upper hand to ROK?
Hope to hear your thoughts
ROK is unlikely to join due to the China/DPRK mutual defense treaty. They have also stated that they don't consider China a security threat. Which means, they aren't getting involved in any Taiwan scenario.
I would just consider them a non scenario and that SK would not let USAF to operate there during a war scenario. Now, I would still plan for the possibility that they might participate just like Philippines might allow US military to operate there. Regardless, China will need to store up enough missiles to take these bases all (at a minimum).
i am skeptical if ROK is able to 100% control the matter, things could quickly spiral out of control once someone fires the first shot, there isnt even time to manage the crisis - all it takes is just one squadron cmdr to disobey. I mean ROK military fought side by side with US for 70 years, all their officers are heavily influenced by US.
Maybe several PHL16 batallions will be secretly deployed north of DMZ, prepared to overwhelm ROKAF immediately once things go south.