I want to distinguish between two objectives or imperatives facing China: The first is the need to deter the US from launching a war against China given the deteriorating geopolitical environment; the second is the need for China to develop sufficient force projection capability to decisively win a high-intensity war against the US no matter how broad the geographical scope of such a war.
If you want to talk about strategy you have to consider the fundamentals first. Strategy is not about military operations but about all the other things that contextualize military operations. It's "why we fight" which provides the means for war.
China doesn't need and shouldn't fight a maximalist scenario against the US to achieve strategic victory
unless it's goals are imperialist.
Russia didn't need to attack Ukraine in 2014 and invade it in 2022 to achieve its
optimal strategic goals. It did both because Kremlin's goals were imperialist. That put Russia in an unwinnable situation where it has to fight an entire population of a country instead of just its political structure.
Compare with historical precedent: British Empire was not defeated in either WW1 or WW2 and it collapsed by 1971. German Empire surrendered without invasion of territory in WW1. What was undermined was the foundation of political power - the monetary system in Britain, the imperial system in Germany.
US has the world's largest and most unsustainable economic system that hinges on US ability to enforce USD monopoly through provision of security.
Absent that the USD system collapses and US immediately enters an economic crisis of the type that causes a systemic revolution. The revolution doesn't have to be violent or cause a civil war. All it needs is to prevent Washington from generating force necessary to perpetuate the USD system - and it's British Empire 2.0. Then you just have to wait.
Strategic dimension of war is not about troops or ships but about money and will. You need money to buy will unless it is your will to survive. If China doesn't threaten survival of Americans then Washington will have to buy their will to fight. But how can they buy the will to fight if the will to fight is what makes money? Russia made the fatal mistake of giving Ukraine the motivation to fight for free. If China doesn't make the same mistake then who is going to fight for the US?
The question I want to consider here is the role played by aircraft carriers
What are the carriers and why does USN have so many?
vs Soviet Union (3600x2000px)
At the end of Cold War USN had 13-14 carriers but all of them would perform combat operations either in at open sea or
in proximity to between to friendly territory. NATO navies - especially RN - had significant assets that would augment USN as did Japan. Atlantic deployment is in relative proximity to CONUS.
Map shows 8 (of 14) carriers on deployment in Atlantic and Pacific. Blue circles are approximate F-18 radii. Use imagination to apply them to area on the map.
vs China (3600x2000px)
No true "friendly" territory (no markers on this map) apart from Japan and individual stations/bases. Deployments fo Indian and Pacific oceans are not in proximity to CONUS. Blue lines mark transit routes. Green lines are key economic transit lines for China. Dashed green line indicates potential economic diversion/expansion that will absorb USN and allied assets.
As for strategy: look up the
share of USD reserves in WestPac region and
Gulf states role in the system - the clay feet of American giant. Put pressure there and they will crack. The US needs to provide security for the system to function. Make it impossible and it all falls like a house of cards
Map shows 6 (of 11) carriers on deployment. Blue circles are approximate F-35 radii.
This is the current threat projection for PLAN involving USN CSGs.
I don't see the need for PLAN carriers. Carriers are useful but they are not necessary until marine traffic will need PLAN protection
on the Atlantic or across the Pacific.
What is necesary in the meantime is a lot of submarines and all other asymmetric/grey forms of warfare to make USN carrier deployment problematic which doesn't need to target the carriers - just the support ships for the CSGs. Carriers can't fight without their escort and escort can't fight without replenishment. And if for whatever reason the carriers can't arrive in time in those two crucial regions...
Geography doesn't favor US in this strategic contest as it did before. It still provides the comfort of physical security of homeland but no longer the comfort of being able to fight from behind the backs of allies - which is America's way of war.
I think CMC sees it the same way as I do. Make USN power projection to expensive or too risky in the key regions and US empire will deflate like Britain before. Technology doesn't matter. It's better means to an end. Iraq and Afghanistan had none and they dealt America a severe wound.
As a parting note:
Playing the game of carriers is playing to USN's strength because shipborne aviation is the greatest advantage that USN has over PLAN, far greater than submarines because the complexity of the entire system is an order of magnitude greater.
Japan vs US and Germany vs Allies in WW2. Which one fared better in absolute and relative numbers?
And let's not forget that regardless of the scale of the economic crisis caused by the war Russia will keep fielding its submarines until at least end of this decade. The fleet is not in a particularly good condition (lots of 971s in the dock right now) but this year they should have ~12 SSN/SSGN and 12 SSBNs and that is something USN has to cover with SSNs because of geography.
As Sun Tzu wroge:
Huludao goes chop chop and the stocks on Wall Street drop.