Hearing some noise on certain other social media (I know, I know) about how it is "existential" for South Korea to join a US intervention in case Taiwan needs to be liberated.
The way the conflict plays out if often assumed to be unlikely to be in the ROK's favor, but here we can see a bit of why that will be:
Some basic info about the Korean theater:
1. Geography:
A. There are 2 routes into North Korea from China: Yalu River and Tumen River. with 14 opened bridges. Armored vehicle fording is easily possible across the Yalu River () and Tumen River ().
The border region in the Tumen River (Tumen) region leads to the mountainous Rangrim range. This is closest to
The border region in the Yalu River region (Dandong, Tonghua) leads to coastal flatlands on the Yellow River side and is nearest to the South Korean border. It is also closest to Pyongyang.
B. The Korean Peninsula divides the Yellow Sea and the Sea of Japan. China has significant military presence in the and turbid.
2. Strategic goals:
A. prevent targeting of DPRK strategic arsenal and ensure North Korea does not fall into a "use it or lose it" situation.
B. prevent loss of DPRK territorial integrity and sovereignty per Sino-Korean MDT.
C. prevent or defeat potential foreign intervention.
D. prevent future aggression.
3. Relevant PLA assets and missions:
A. PLAGF: and commands, 3x group armies each. Each group army for the 2 relevant theater commands consists of 6x combined arms brigades and 6x special operations brigades: 3x heavy (armored), 1x medium (wheeled), 1x light (infantry), 1x aviation, engineering, spec ops, artillery, logistics
These are likely to act as essentially an operational reserve for the KPA, with the PLAGF stopping South Korean breakthroughs if they are able to break a KPA line and counterattacking if they stalemate against a KPA position, all the while targeting South Korean logistics points with long range fires. PLAGF brigade level long range strike: . 750 mms can be used to strike strategic assets like command centers, airbases, bridges, fuel depots, etc. The 300/370mms are for operational-tactical targets like forward positioned ammo dumps, fueling points, camps, etc.
B. PLAAF tactical aviation: include 1 air base with J-20, J-10, J-7 and J-11B, weighted towards 4th gen (J-10/11) mostly. In particular there is a base with J-20 in Liaoning which serves as immediate reaction. I believe the #1 mission will be deterring or defeating F-15K strike packages launched towards Hamgyong Province's strategic sites and Pyongyang, and preventing interference against setting up bridgeheads leading into North Korea.
C. Northern fleet with AOR in the Yellow Sea contains [relevant assets only, no overlap assets] 1x carrier (Liaoning), 4x 055s (!), 12x medium destroyers (8x 052D, 2x 051C, 2x 052), 4x 054A frigates, 15x 056/056A corvettes, 8x older frigates/missile boats, 7x 039 SSK, 2x 039A/B SSK, 6x 035 SSK.
I expect all the SSNs and SSBNs to disperse to Southern fleet. They are too vulnerable in the shallow Yellow Sea. But on the flip side, despite the fact that original 039s and especially 035s are old, it doesn't matter as much in the Yellow Sea as the shallowness and turbidity of the Yellow Sea make it so that older subs don't suffer as much. Even Cheonan, an ASW frigate, got sunk by a 1960's North Korean midget sub. South Korean ASW won't get a chance to do much with 16x air defense destroyers and PLAAF CAP over the Yellow Sea. Their best bet is to disperse to Sea of Japan.
The way the conflict plays out if often assumed to be unlikely to be in the ROK's favor, but here we can see a bit of why that will be:
Some basic info about the Korean theater:
1. Geography:
A. There are 2 routes into North Korea from China: Yalu River and Tumen River. with 14 opened bridges. Armored vehicle fording is easily possible across the Yalu River () and Tumen River ().
The border region in the Tumen River (Tumen) region leads to the mountainous Rangrim range. This is closest to
The border region in the Yalu River region (Dandong, Tonghua) leads to coastal flatlands on the Yellow River side and is nearest to the South Korean border. It is also closest to Pyongyang.
B. The Korean Peninsula divides the Yellow Sea and the Sea of Japan. China has significant military presence in the and turbid.
2. Strategic goals:
A. prevent targeting of DPRK strategic arsenal and ensure North Korea does not fall into a "use it or lose it" situation.
B. prevent loss of DPRK territorial integrity and sovereignty per Sino-Korean MDT.
C. prevent or defeat potential foreign intervention.
D. prevent future aggression.
3. Relevant PLA assets and missions:
A. PLAGF: and commands, 3x group armies each. Each group army for the 2 relevant theater commands consists of 6x combined arms brigades and 6x special operations brigades: 3x heavy (armored), 1x medium (wheeled), 1x light (infantry), 1x aviation, engineering, spec ops, artillery, logistics
These are likely to act as essentially an operational reserve for the KPA, with the PLAGF stopping South Korean breakthroughs if they are able to break a KPA line and counterattacking if they stalemate against a KPA position, all the while targeting South Korean logistics points with long range fires. PLAGF brigade level long range strike: . 750 mms can be used to strike strategic assets like command centers, airbases, bridges, fuel depots, etc. The 300/370mms are for operational-tactical targets like forward positioned ammo dumps, fueling points, camps, etc.
B. PLAAF tactical aviation: include 1 air base with J-20, J-10, J-7 and J-11B, weighted towards 4th gen (J-10/11) mostly. In particular there is a base with J-20 in Liaoning which serves as immediate reaction. I believe the #1 mission will be deterring or defeating F-15K strike packages launched towards Hamgyong Province's strategic sites and Pyongyang, and preventing interference against setting up bridgeheads leading into North Korea.
C. Northern fleet with AOR in the Yellow Sea contains [relevant assets only, no overlap assets] 1x carrier (Liaoning), 4x 055s (!), 12x medium destroyers (8x 052D, 2x 051C, 2x 052), 4x 054A frigates, 15x 056/056A corvettes, 8x older frigates/missile boats, 7x 039 SSK, 2x 039A/B SSK, 6x 035 SSK.
I expect all the SSNs and SSBNs to disperse to Southern fleet. They are too vulnerable in the shallow Yellow Sea. But on the flip side, despite the fact that original 039s and especially 035s are old, it doesn't matter as much in the Yellow Sea as the shallowness and turbidity of the Yellow Sea make it so that older subs don't suffer as much. Even Cheonan, an ASW frigate, got sunk by a 1960's North Korean midget sub. South Korean ASW won't get a chance to do much with 16x air defense destroyers and PLAAF CAP over the Yellow Sea. Their best bet is to disperse to Sea of Japan.
