@FairAndUnbiased I'm not sure in history there has ever been a case of a non nuclear country starting a war trying to take over the core territory of a nuclear one.
I strongly doubt SK would initiate hostilities because even the current leader, who is widely considered a bootlicker, still adheres to the general South Korean public, which wishes for peaceful reunification or status quo.
If something happens its more likely that NK would initiate, since they have more vested interest in changing the status quo.
I think the most possible scenario of a war would be NK using an ongoing US invasion of China as an excuse to call in China on SK, using the US bases to justify such a move.
NK has the best chance of succeeding by moving fast. In essence, it will be a race between US army and the PLA to get as many troops as possible into the country before official hostilities. If China was already responding to an American invasion, it would mean that Chinese anti shipping platforms could cordon off South Korea, at least for a while. The number of US soldiers in Korea therefore likely can't exceed 60 000, while China is way less limited because it has a land route.
PLA mechanized units should outgun anything similar sized on the peninsula, which means together with air support, they can rapidly breach the South Korean lines, as long as they avoid cities. The North Korean army can then pour in through the gaps where the PLA punched through, siege SK cities and hold ground.
KPA artillery has excellent synergy with China's rocket force, as they can saturate SK air defenses allowing PLA long range missiles to slip through.
As for naval strategy, it is correct that China's SSNs need to immediately leave, the yellow sea favors SSKs far too much. Again here, missile strikes using saturation by the KPA first is a trump card, as the most advanced SK subs do not necessarily lag behind Chinese ones and are better than NK ones, the ability for NK's side to strike them in port whenever they return to refuel is a huge boon.
Once the Yellow Sea is cleared from bigger ships, China could try to enhance strike capability using the tons of old missile boats they have... Assuming there's even crew for them anymore nowadays. Unmanned could be an option.
Perhaps most interesting to me, although not too relevant to the topic since it veers into politics, is how Kim can actually integrate the South, given that its overall more developed. The new Korea can't be allowed to follow the same militaristic model as the North, because it would cause a collapse in life quality. Is Kim ready to be pragmatic and change? Would it even work?
Ultimately, I see Korean military reunification as not impossible, but mostly because China can brute force it. NK itself cannot even really run its own state that well, how well would it do at running 2?
I strongly doubt SK would initiate hostilities because even the current leader, who is widely considered a bootlicker, still adheres to the general South Korean public, which wishes for peaceful reunification or status quo.
If something happens its more likely that NK would initiate, since they have more vested interest in changing the status quo.
I think the most possible scenario of a war would be NK using an ongoing US invasion of China as an excuse to call in China on SK, using the US bases to justify such a move.
NK has the best chance of succeeding by moving fast. In essence, it will be a race between US army and the PLA to get as many troops as possible into the country before official hostilities. If China was already responding to an American invasion, it would mean that Chinese anti shipping platforms could cordon off South Korea, at least for a while. The number of US soldiers in Korea therefore likely can't exceed 60 000, while China is way less limited because it has a land route.
PLA mechanized units should outgun anything similar sized on the peninsula, which means together with air support, they can rapidly breach the South Korean lines, as long as they avoid cities. The North Korean army can then pour in through the gaps where the PLA punched through, siege SK cities and hold ground.
KPA artillery has excellent synergy with China's rocket force, as they can saturate SK air defenses allowing PLA long range missiles to slip through.
As for naval strategy, it is correct that China's SSNs need to immediately leave, the yellow sea favors SSKs far too much. Again here, missile strikes using saturation by the KPA first is a trump card, as the most advanced SK subs do not necessarily lag behind Chinese ones and are better than NK ones, the ability for NK's side to strike them in port whenever they return to refuel is a huge boon.
Once the Yellow Sea is cleared from bigger ships, China could try to enhance strike capability using the tons of old missile boats they have... Assuming there's even crew for them anymore nowadays. Unmanned could be an option.
Perhaps most interesting to me, although not too relevant to the topic since it veers into politics, is how Kim can actually integrate the South, given that its overall more developed. The new Korea can't be allowed to follow the same militaristic model as the North, because it would cause a collapse in life quality. Is Kim ready to be pragmatic and change? Would it even work?
Ultimately, I see Korean military reunification as not impossible, but mostly because China can brute force it. NK itself cannot even really run its own state that well, how well would it do at running 2?
