PLA Strategy in High Intensity Ground Conflicts

Minm said:

I know there are many pro Russian people here, but isn't the obvious fourth example a colour revolution in Russia, making them an EU member? A new but slightly more competent Yeltsin provoking China and placing missiles near the northern border and supporting terrorists in Xinjiang, like the Soviet Union did before WW2. Border clashes escalate and China decides that if there is going to be a war, they might as well take back outer Manchuria. The PLA ground force could truly show their worth when fighting a traditional ground war against Soviet/Russian tanks in the north

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No contest. There's only 2 roads (A331, R258) and 1 railroad linking western and eastern Russia. While out of reach of China in the past now they're trivially in reach.

Russia knows this too so even the stupidest, most pro EU president won't do it. It is actually key to Russia today to be at least neutral to China.

It helps that the pro west liberals in Russia have 0 popular support. If Putin falls #2 in the polls is CPRF.

FairAndUnbiased said:

No contest. There's only 2 roads (A331, R258) and 1 railroad linking western and eastern Russia. While out of reach of China in the past now they're trivially in reach.

Russia knows this too so even the stupidest, most pro EU president won't do it. It is actually key to Russia today to be at least neutral to China.

It helps that the pro west liberals in Russia have 0 popular support. If Putin falls #2 in the polls is CPRF.

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Sure, but Vietnam or Korea starting a suicidal conflict with China is equally unlikely. And nobody would have expected Ukraine to behave so foolishly to get into a conflict with Russia. So a war against a pro West Russia should be a valid scenario. China should have some plans for every potential war, no matter how unlikely

Actually. There are two railroads which cross Russia West to East.


There is the Transiberian railroad. Which is close to the border with China. And then there is the BAM i.e. Baikal-Amur-Mainline which was started in the 1970s. The BAM was originally started out precisely so there would be a railroad far enough from the Chinese border to act as backup in case of conflict. But right now it is being used to ship coal to China. And lacks capacity for that. So they are expanding it. Quadrupling the rail traffic West to East. But it will take the better part of a decade. They need to dig loads of tunnels through mountains and dense rock.

Minm said:

Sure, but Vietnam or Korea starting a suicidal conflict with China is equally unlikely. And nobody would have expected Ukraine to behave so foolishly to get into a conflict with Russia. So a war against a pro West Russia should be a valid scenario. China should have some plans for every potential war, no matter how unlikely

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the difference is that Russians will never have overt US support even if they join the EU - they'll have the power to pull the EU away from the US instead to form their own "alternative west" focused on the German-Russian-French axis.

However, I hate to say this, but Asian white/west worship is a well known and historically documented phenomena where Asians will fight and die for the US ferociously against other Asians (and only other Asians) while cowering against westerners no matter what the atrocities they commit, both at home and abroad. Even NATO countries don't do that.


Example:

1. millions of South Koreans were killed by the US and the US sponsored military dictatorship. South Korea is one of the most pro US countries in the world with 84% approval rate.

2. millions of Vietnamese were killed by the US and the US sponsored military dictatorship. Unlike South Korea, the Vietnamese military dictatorship was defeated. Nonetheless the US has a 78% approval rate.

3. Philippines was colonized by the US for 50+ years after a war where Filipinos were put in cages in human zoos. The Philippines has a 94% approval rate of the US.

these approval rates far exceed the approval rates of the US in core NATO and treaty allies including UK, Canada, Australia, Israel, Germany, etc.

So if you told me that Russia would fight and die for the US against China, I won't believe you. I wouldn't even really believe NATO would fight and die for the US against China - they'll use the North Atlantic Charter as an excuse because they don't want to die for nothing. But if you told me that South Koreans and Vietnamese would do it, especially if they had overt US support, I wouldn't dismiss it at all.

The PLAGF was mainly made to stop a soviet invasion of China back then, it is more or less tailor made to take on USSR and win or at least draw, the defensive artillery and atgm/drone heavy doctrine can hard counter soviet tactics.

Russia's martial strength is much lower than the Union's. In fact, I'd say its likely on par with South Korea due to how much its deteriorated and how losing the western USSR states left up to 1/3 of soviet ground force equipment into what's now called the Ukraine. That is not to say Russia isn't likely the 3rd or 4th strongest ground military still.

Russia's current course has been more or less locked due to the special military operation.

But in the past if they had changed course and escalated into a full scale war with China, the war would likely surprisingly be less difficult than fighting Second Korean war. Russia has to cover huge ground using an army that cannot really mount effective offensives against the PLA. Hence, they would have to sit still and engage in an air force and missile slinging contest, which would be a disaster for them.

The Russian East is not well connected in infrastructure and China could launch attacks that effectively bleeds Siberia dry from supplies.

Binkov has a video on China vs Russia

(not really) spoiler: China wins easily.

Abominable said:

2. Modi may decide to attack Pakistan to try and shore up domestic opinion if it drops, in other words pulling a Putin. I'm not sure it would lead to a ground conflict, as China could support Pakistan in other ways.

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If India attacks Pakistan on a frontal, full-scale attack, Pakistan would immediately launch her nuclear weapons against India. And India would respond with her own nuclear weapons. So basically, MAD.

And let's hope there won't be any nuclear-tipped missiles that woukd stray into Tibet or Xinjiang.

In fact, both India and Pakistan actually had a Cuban Missile Crisis of their own back in 2001 and 2002.

ACuriousPLAFan said:

If India attacks Pakistan on a frontal, full-scale attack, Pakistan would immediately launch her nuclear weapons against India. And India would respond with her own nuclear weapons. So basically, MAD.

And let's hope there won't be any nuclear-tipped missiles that woukd stray into Tibet or Xinjiang.

In fact, both India and Pakistan actually had a Cuban Missile Crisis of their own back in 2001 and 2002.

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Not MAD, their warheads are both relatively primitive.

ACuriousPLAFan said:

If India attacks Pakistan on a frontal, full-scale attack, Pakistan would immediately launch her nuclear weapons against India. And India would respond with her own nuclear weapons. So basically, MAD.

And let's hope there won't be any nuclear-tipped missiles that woukd stray into Tibet or Xinjiang.

In fact, both India and Pakistan actually had a Cuban Missile Crisis of their own back in 2001 and 2002.

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Eh, I think they honestly might wait a bit and see what happens, but if it gets clear that India is winning or starts targetting any nuclear facilities, Pakistan would most likely launch.

Michaelsinodef said:

Eh, I think they honestly might wait a bit and see what happens, but if it gets clear that India is winning or starts targetting any nuclear facilities, Pakistan would most likely launch.

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To prevent a Pakistani launch, which would have unpredictable consequences, China may want to intervene to repel Indian aggression and perhaps even take the opportunity to liberate occupied territory such as South Tibet.

The mechanism of intervention will be complex. There's only 1 road linking China to Pakistan - Karakorum Highway. This can be attacked by Indian cruise missiles. Thus, it will be slow for Chinese armor to enter Pakistan due to limited logistics and needing to secure the highway. Once Karakorum Highway is secured, PLA combat engineers, wheeled artillery, APCs and supply trucks can flood into Pakistan to repair damaged highway sections and prepare a defense in depth while armor transporters catch up.

There are 3 main paths to bring forces to liberate South Tibet:

1. G349 -> S202 through the mountains going south from Tibet at Cona County near Tawang
2. G318 -> Yarlung Zangbo River valley.
3. S201 -> Lohit River valley.

All other paths are blocked by mountains.

The most developed infrastructure is along the Yarlung Zangbo river valley and it looks like light armor can be directly brought there to launch a combined arms attack. This river valley is between tall mountains with up to 5 km distance between river and peak and is lushly forested. Lohit is difficult river terrain with little infrastructure but can be bridged by combat engineers. Tawang will require staging in Tibet but was where PLA was able to make a breakthrough in 1962.