Pakistan and China share land border, Pakistan and India share land border.
PLA Strategy in High Intensity Ground Conflicts
- Thread starter FairAndUnbiased
- Start date
1. not getting involved with a treaty ally getting attacked = huge loss of prestige and if North Korea in particular is in danger of being defeated they might launch, which is very bad.
2. there's more than 1 logistics hub. Russia has been striking Ukrainian logistics hubs for months and still it's not finished. at some point the conflict should be finished once and for all.
3. outside the scope, but in a general SEA conflict it is likely US will be involved. what if US was expecting this and was just using Vietnam as bait for a first strike?
Vietnam already showed they are not interested in getting into a conflict with China. Even just verbally.
They also have no tradition of buying US military defense products.
Regardless of whatever dislikes they might have with regards to China they aren't stupid I think.
The current South Korean leader looks like an idiot. Just the right kind to start a pointless conflict.
They also have no tradition of buying US military defense products.
Regardless of whatever dislikes they might have with regards to China they aren't stupid I think.
The current South Korean leader looks like an idiot. Just the right kind to start a pointless conflict.
China did not get involved in the first Korean War until North Korea is almost defeated. In your scenario, a solo South Korean offensive wouldn’t overrun the North given the size and terrain relative to the South’s military size.
India depends on just a handful of “strategic highways” to transport supplies to its frontline with China. Losing them most definitely would end an invasion. Ukraine is flat land with many railways/highways. The Himalayas is the Himalayas.
All the more reasons to do a show-of-force exercise, as opposed to an actual preemptive strike.
1. if South Korea decided to invade it would be with US blessing since US has operational control of the South Korean military. if South Korea was failing, it would be a massive loss of prestige on the part of the US so they'd intervene.
2. Highways are easy to repair and cratering them does nothing if it's not a critical bridge, trucks can drive around the crater. The only way to actually break a highway connection is to 1. control it with persistent fire 2. occupy it and set up check points 3. hit a bridge or tunnel
3. A show of force is the worst, all it does is reveal targets for enemy subs. Either get a serious operation going with offensive ASW patrols, corvette screens, etc. and accept the risks thereof, or just go on defensive with navy and use other tools like ground and air forces.
solarz
Brigadier
The China Pakistan border is also through mountain ranges so how exactly is China going to get those MBTs over?
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1. As soon as you involve the US, things quickly devolve into the air, naval and space domains which removes your spotlight on the Chinese ground force.
2. No you are thinking of a normal highway. A mountain highway looks like this
Now imagine a 10 meter diameter crater from a 500kg bomb. You are not driving across that. And yes China should target bridges and tunnels when possible as well.
3. Same as 1. Also a CBG would have very robust ASW capabilities. And Hainan is China’s naval bastion and the home base for China’s SSBNs.
1. Is the most likely, even though the chances are slim. It wouldn't need a far right politician, just some encouragement from the US.
2. Modi may decide to attack Pakistan to try and shore up domestic opinion if it drops, in other words pulling a Putin. I'm not sure it would lead to a ground conflict, as China could support Pakistan in other ways.
3. Least likely to happen. Maybe before the Ukraine war but Vietnamese are very fond of Russians. The closer China is to Russia the better Sino-Vietnamese relations will be.
2. Modi may decide to attack Pakistan to try and shore up domestic opinion if it drops, in other words pulling a Putin. I'm not sure it would lead to a ground conflict, as China could support Pakistan in other ways.
3. Least likely to happen. Maybe before the Ukraine war but Vietnamese are very fond of Russians. The closer China is to Russia the better Sino-Vietnamese relations will be.
US would actually put boots on the ground in Korea though, since it already has existing boots on the ground to serve as as barrier troops for Korean conscripts and a tripwire.
Navy wouldn't be dominant in Korea as even a defeat of the PLAN could still be a ground win which is what matters. This is vastly different than Taiwan where even a relatively small naval loss could be a total loss.
Air defense is considered part of the ground forces for the PLA organizationally and doctrinally makes sense for the type of conflict the PLA is likely to fight.