We're now starting to see some other DPP media personalities breaking the other way too. Really feels like the ground is actively shifting in front of our eyes. Seems reality is finally sinking in. Tbh getting the peaceful reunification would be an even more monumental achievement than winning the war for AR (the one unfortunate side effect is that it leaves the strategic positioning vis a vis Uncle Sam more ambiguous).
PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency
- Thread starter pugachev_diver
- Start date
I disagree. I think that it wrecks the American strategy more completely than a war would. The argument has always been that China has to be contained or else it would aggressively take over East Asia, and keep expanding. China's confrontation with Taiwan was always the "proof" of its aggressive nature; that it's only the first step and other countries would share the same fate.
But if China keeps its diplomatic stances intact even after a peaceful reunification, then it makes this argument unworkable. Once all the "but they keep on threatening Taiwan" noises quiet down, it's going to be harder and harder to paint China as a real threat to everyone. Sure, there will still be the South China Sea spat with Philippines but nobody actually cares about that.
The so call 战略窗口 (strategic opportunity) is pure bullshit. US armed forces will not/cannot stop the rot.
It’s a bigger blow in terms of symbolic political credibility for sure but ultimately the geopolitics is about the material factors on the ground.
There is a lot of wishful thinking in America but not a lot of competent leadership with the power or understanding to directly address and repair the structural factors behind the rapid degeneration. The bigger problem though is even if they stabilize the situation they’re doing so while China is only just beginning a phase of *massive* acceleration.
Only US China hawks believe in the 2027 theory. For China the deadline is 2049. Cause China will only going to get better and stronger until then. No point fighting out with a half-developed country and half-developed military. China's goal of 2049 of a world class military is when they will strike, if necessary.
B-21 is the only project going well on the other side of the pacific. Nuclear sub construction isn't a disaster yet but looks like it's going downhill too.
It's kind of why H-20 is taking on symbolic importance hence why Ayi and Yankee as referring to it as "九鼎".
I've always felt like the 2027 deadline is just hype and doomsaying to increase funding to the US military.
If they say conflict is "imminent", they can secure more funds for themselves to use for this "imminent" conflict.
However one thing I did see was in 2024, Xi Jinping said in a high profile meeting with EU leaders that attacking Taiwan was a bad idea and would destroy china's recent achievements and jeopardize China's future achievements.
That sounds like a very clear indicator that perhaps the Taiwan conflict isn't the ticking time bomb people portray is as.
It's the Davidson Window, something that took the DC blob by storm a few years ago. The idea is since the US military is undergoing its own period of modernization and retooling, shifting from fighting in the Middle East to the vast expanse of the Western Pacific, it was suggested that around 2027 will be when PLAN and the USN's capabilities are at their closest.
So that's where that date came from. But some politicians twisted it by claiming they 'received intelligence' that suggests Xi is genuinely planning to launch an invasion by that date, something even JCS General Milley came out and denied.
2027 also marks the centennial of the founding of the Chinese People's Liberation Army. I wonder if this is a coincidence.
I agree that 2027 should be the year when the gap in military power between China and the United States is at its smallest. After all, the gap will only widen, and the United States has no ability to reverse this trend.
I agree that 2027 should be the year when the gap in military power between China and the United States is at its smallest. After all, the gap will only widen, and the United States has no ability to reverse this trend.