Their "ideology" was never sustainable to begin with. Ask them why Taiwan was returned to the ROC following WWII even though the ROC never administered it, and you'll get blank stares (Hint: a certain island is part of a certain nation). Pan-green movements are probably the most dangerous thing to happen to the residents of Taiwan save for the White Terror.
PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency
- Thread starter pugachev_diver
- Start date
broadsword
Brigadier
Is the WSJ any more credible than an opinion piece? Where in the article does it say Xi is pursuing concessions from Trump on the Taiwan issue?
Truth was never a requirement for any ideology. Where is the basis of truth for every religion? Dig deep enough and you will always find cracks in the foundation of any and every belief system. The little details never match up perfectly with the grand narratives.
It doesn't matter what you believe; what matters is that you do believe. That's what people fight for, kill for, die for.
WSJ sometimes do post articles or stuff to 'prepare' the public for potential policies by the US government.
Or actually do get some leaks from intelligence, military or white house etc.
Still, i would treat this as more of a test to gauge potential reactions and or opinions, for say, trump saying or using Taiwan support as a negotiation tip.
I haven't been following this sub for a few years now and I'm out of touch with what the current geopolitical situation is with Taiwan. I stay away from the braindead US media reports about an "imminent invasion" and a "million man swim" because we all know that's BS.
What is the current outlook on the timeline of Chinese action towards Taiwan? Now with Trump, I feel like things could be different, But are we expecting action such as a blockade somewhere in the future? How unrealistic is the classic 2027 timeline from the DoD in US? At what point will the PLA be making moves, if it ever does?
I'd appreciate any insights on this, thanks
What is the current outlook on the timeline of Chinese action towards Taiwan? Now with Trump, I feel like things could be different, But are we expecting action such as a blockade somewhere in the future? How unrealistic is the classic 2027 timeline from the DoD in US? At what point will the PLA be making moves, if it ever does?
I'd appreciate any insights on this, thanks
There is no timeljne. China's stance has been consistent: they will attack Taiwan if a red line is crossed. While it's not outright stated, the implicaton is that Taiwan won't be attacked unless a red line has been crossed. And it only makes sense as China's position is very strong and only getting stronger by the day. Given that all the trends are favorable, why would they risk it all on an invasion?
And as the US seems intent on imploding, it only makes sense for China to be patient and pick up the pieces without having to fire a single shot.
If we take the 2027 deadline as having some basis previously with the simple aim of "if by 2027 peaceful reunification hasn't happened, then armed reunification will take place", then currently there are two factors making AR in 2027 less likely:
1. Chances for peaceful reunification seems to be increasing, not decreasing at this time. DPP got massacred in the two recall elections they kicked off, indicating Taiwanese people are not quite on board with DPP policy. Their current poor handling of typhoon emergency response is doing further damage to them as we speak. Meanwhile, 馆长, an ex-DPP online personality has jumped ship (DPP attempted to assassinate him which really did a number on his outlook) and became a diehard promoter of PRC within ROC and has opened the eyes of lots of his people with his reach. 馆长 is single-handedly showing a path exists for pro-reunification voice to exist and thrive in Taiwan.
2. The 2027 deadline may have arisen due to a calculation that due to ebb and flow of Chinese vs US platforms coming online, somewhere around 2027 exists a local maximum where new platforms like J-20A, J-35, DF-27, Fujian etc are ready for PLA while new US platforms are just out of reach. However it's turning out that those new US platforms that appeared on the horizon 5 years ago (Arleigh Burke Flight 3, NGAD, Constellation class, Sentinel, American hypersonics etc) are suffering delay after delay and don't look like they will be ready by 2027. Thus this theorized local maximum may not exist and the best strategy for PRC is to wait further and see the scale of military balance further tip towards PLA in an AR situation.
Engineer
Major
Oh, what was that all about?
He went from this:
To this:
Dude was livestreaming and live reacting to the 93 parade, and it lead to a lot of Taiwanese watching the parade and realizing PLA is much stronger than ROC government likes to promote. Check out his view count and the comments for his stream: