PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

Xi Is Chasing a Huge Concession From Trump: Opposing Taiwan Independence

Having set the stage for a year of high-level engagement with the Trump administration, Xi Jinping is now chasing his ultimate prize, according to people familiar with the matter: a change in U.S. policy that Beijing hopes could isolate Taiwan.

As President Trump has shown interest in striking an economic accord with China in the coming year, the people said, the Chinese leader is planning to press his American counterpart to formally state that the U.S. “opposes” Taiwan’s independence.

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00CuriousObserver said:

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Xi Is Chasing a Huge Concession From Trump: Opposing Taiwan Independence

Having set the stage for a year of high-level engagement with the Trump administration, Xi Jinping is now chasing his ultimate prize, according to people familiar with the matter: a change in U.S. policy that Beijing hopes could isolate Taiwan.

As President Trump has shown interest in striking an economic accord with China in the coming year, the people said, the Chinese leader is planning to press his American counterpart to formally state that the U.S. “opposes” Taiwan’s independence.

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I believe any verbal commitment or sanction that can be altered at any time is not a bargaining chip at all. Take tariffs and pledges against Taiwan independence, for instance—these empty promises could be reneged on the very next day after the meeting concludes.

Nevermore said:

I believe any verbal commitment or sanction that can be altered at any time is not a bargaining chip at all. Take tariffs and pledges against Taiwan independence, for instance—these empty promises could be reneged on the very next day after the meeting concludes.

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Suspend sales and maintenance of weapons to Taiwan for starters.

00CuriousObserver said:

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Xi Is Chasing a Huge Concession From Trump: Opposing Taiwan Independence

Having set the stage for a year of high-level engagement with the Trump administration, Xi Jinping is now chasing his ultimate prize, according to people familiar with the matter: a change in U.S. policy that Beijing hopes could isolate Taiwan.

As President Trump has shown interest in striking an economic accord with China in the coming year, the people said, the Chinese leader is planning to press his American counterpart to formally state that the U.S. “opposes” Taiwan’s independence.

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Technically a pointless gesture, but the perception blow inside Taiwan on the people in the middle of spectrum will be huge. People who are kinda on the fence on whether Taiwan independence has any hopes anymore depend entirely on US "military superiority" and support.

If that support is taken away, DPP votes will go down significantly. China's only hope to achieve peaceful reunification is to vote DPP out of power.

siegecrossbow said:

Suspend sales and maintenance of weapons to Taiwan for starters.

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Not enough as he can always resume it later, he needs to make a public statement at the very least. Say US will not intervene on Taiwan unification

Nevermore said:

I believe any verbal commitment or sanction that can be altered at any time is not a bargaining chip at all. Take tariffs and pledges against Taiwan independence, for instance—these empty promises could be reneged on the very next day after the meeting concludes.

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While it is just a gesture the effect it would have could make people vote out the DPP, the DPP is mainly only in power because they think the US supports them if the US comes out and says they don’t, their reason for keeping the DPP in falls. Now a more meaningful action would be if the US suspends weapons sales to Taiwan.

Zhejiang said:

While it is just a gesture the effect it would have could make people vote out the DPP, the DPP is mainly only in power because they think the US supports them if the US comes out and says they don’t, their reason for keeping the DPP in falls. Now a more meaningful action would be if the US suspends weapons sales to Taiwan.

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Actually, its perfectly fine if US keeps selling weapons to Taiwan, even doubles it. But if US comes out and says, they will not involve themselves in a Taiwan strait war, that will be the biggest blow to DPP.

No one in Taiwan believes they have any chance of survival just fighting on their own. So, US strategic clarity against Taiwan War involvement will be a big boost for China's goals for peaceful reunification.

American’s promises don’t worth the toilet papers they are written on. I see making American publicly declaring it does not support Taiwan independence as a power move to signal the end of Pax Americana.

00CuriousObserver said:

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习近平要求特朗普做出重大让步：反对“台独”

据知情人士透露，习近平已经为与特朗普政府进行一年的高层接触做好了准备，现在他正在追逐他的终极目标：美国政策的改变，北京希望借此孤立台湾。

知情人士称，由于特朗普总统表现出有兴趣在未来一年与中国达成经济协议，中国领导人正计划向美国总统施压，要求其正式声明美国“反对”台湾独立。

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This so-called insider is simply floating trial balloons to gauge reactions from various parties.
On the public front, China will not offer any conditions in exchange for the U.S.'s "opposition to Taiwan independence," especially when it comes to mere verbal commitments from the U.S. government.

When a final agreement is reached, if the U.S. states its "opposition to Taiwan independence," it would mean China has secured this through an exchange of interests with the U.S. If the U.S. does not make such a statement, it would indicate the U.S. is standing firm on its position. This is a basic negotiation tactic.

From this news, the following analysis can be drawn: Currently, the U.S. aims to leverage Taiwan to secure certain benefits, but China has not yet responded to this proposal. I believe the Chinese government will not publicly address this proposal either.

enroger said:

Not enough as he can always resume it later, he needs to make a public statement at the very least. Say US will not intervene on Taiwan unification

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Nevermore said:

I believe any verbal commitment or sanction that can be altered at any time is not a bargaining chip at all. Take tariffs and pledges against Taiwan independence, for instance—these empty promises could be reneged on the very next day after the meeting concludes.

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US flip-flopping is huge—even if Trump reverses course—because it demonstrates unreliable support which views Taiwan as a pawn.

China has always said "US is unreliable and views you as a pawn," but many in Taiwan obviously never believed it. US proving China correct through its actions is what matters, because all of the people who said otherwise are politically discredited. Trust, ideology, morale, these things matter just as much as material factors. The question for Taiwan is what are you fighting and dying for, what cause, what purpose. Many people are willing die for something. Very few are willing to die for nothing.