PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

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AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
Temstar said:
2. The 2027 deadline may have arisen due to a calculation that due to ebb and flow of Chinese vs US platforms coming online, somewhere around 2027 exists a local maximum where new platforms like J-20A, J-35, DF-27, Fujian etc are ready for PLA while new US platforms are just out of reach. However it's turning out that those new US platforms that appeared on the horizon 5 years ago (Arleigh Burke Flight 3, NGAD, Constellation class, Sentinel, American hypersonics etc) are suffering delay after delay and don't look like they will be ready by 2027. Thus this theorized local maximum may not exist and the best strategy for PRC is to wait further and see the scale of military balance further tip towards PLA in an AR situation.
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The future doesn't look any more promising for the US.

China continues to grow significantly faster and have a larger economy in terms of actual output, as per the World Bank. We'll probably see China grow to 2x the US economy in 5-10 years.

At the moment, China is somewhat behind militarily.

But terms of annual procurement of equivalent air and naval platforms, China is currently running at twice the US rate, roughly speaking. So given enough years, the size of the Chinese military will trend towards twice the US.
 
siegecrossbow

siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Temstar said:
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Assassin fired 3 shots at him as he left his gym on day, scored two hits on his arm and leg. The court finding was it was organized crime related but 馆长 himself says DPP has a lot of connections within the triad and it's them trying to get rid of him. He then had further legal disputes with DPP and it resulted in him permanently splitting with DPP.

He went from this:
View attachment 161836
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To this:
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Dude was livestreaming and live reacting to the 93 parade, and it lead to a lot of Taiwanese watching the parade and realizing PLA is much stronger than ROC government likes to promote. Check out his view count and the comments for his stream:
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The really useful thing about someone like Chen is actually demonstrating how weak and emasculated the current DPP is by letting a top influencer get away with rabid pro PRC propaganda. Once the sharks smell blood it’s only a matter of time before they become fish food.
 
Temstar

Temstar

Brigadier
Registered Member
siegecrossbow said:
The really useful thing about someone like Chen is actually demonstrating how weak and emasculated the current DPP is by letting a top influencer get away with rabid pro PRC propaganda. Once the sharks smell blood it’s only a matter of time before they become fish food.
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He's also useful in panicking the KMT. Those KMT old men always figured if there's AR and it goes badly for ROC they will be the one in position to negotiate terms with CPC and thus secure a future for themselves. 馆长 shows that may not be a sure bet any more.
 
siegecrossbow

siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
gpt said:
It's the Davidson Window, something that took the DC blob by storm a few years ago. The idea is since the US military is undergoing its own period of modernization and retooling, shifting from fighting in the Middle East to the vast expanse of the Western Pacific, it was suggested that around 2027 will be when PLAN and the USN's capabilities are at their closest.

So that's where that date came from. But some politicians twisted it by claiming they 'received intelligence' that suggests Xi is genuinely planning to launch an invasion by that date, something even JCS General Milley came out and denied.
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Not so much a window as a door. Once you walk through it there is no turning back.
 
plawolf

plawolf

Lieutenant General
If you think about it logically, a peaceful reunification in the next few years might actually be the single gravest threat the PLA could realistically face in terms of jeopardising its future funding and the pace and scope of its modernisation plans.

Forcing Taiwan to peacefully reunite with the mainland might be the only viable way for America to have any remotely achievable chance of maintaining its (on paper at least) military advantage over China beyond 2030.
 
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