PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

Temstar said:

2. The 2027 deadline may have arisen due to a calculation that due to ebb and flow of Chinese vs US platforms coming online, somewhere around 2027 exists a local maximum where new platforms like J-20A, J-35, DF-27, Fujian etc are ready for PLA while new US platforms are just out of reach. However it's turning out that those new US platforms that appeared on the horizon 5 years ago (Arleigh Burke Flight 3, NGAD, Constellation class, Sentinel, American hypersonics etc) are suffering delay after delay and don't look like they will be ready by 2027. Thus this theorized local maximum may not exist and the best strategy for PRC is to wait further and see the scale of military balance further tip towards PLA in an AR situation.

Click to expand...

The future doesn't look any more promising for the US.

China continues to grow significantly faster and have a larger economy in terms of actual output, as per the World Bank. We'll probably see China grow to 2x the US economy in 5-10 years.

At the moment, China is somewhat behind militarily.

But terms of annual procurement of equivalent air and naval platforms, China is currently running at twice the US rate, roughly speaking. So given enough years, the size of the Chinese military will trend towards twice the US.

Temstar said:

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Assassin fired 3 shots at him as he left his gym on day, scored two hits on his arm and leg. The court finding was it was organized crime related but 馆长 himself says DPP has a lot of connections within the triad and it's them trying to get rid of him. He then had further legal disputes with DPP and it resulted in him permanently splitting with DPP.

He went from this:
View attachment 161836
View attachment 161837

To this:
View attachment 161838

Dude was livestreaming and live reacting to the 93 parade, and it lead to a lot of Taiwanese watching the parade and realizing PLA is much stronger than ROC government likes to promote. Check out his view count and the comments for his stream:

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Click to expand...

The really useful thing about someone like Chen is actually demonstrating how weak and emasculated the current DPP is by letting a top influencer get away with rabid pro PRC propaganda. Once the sharks smell blood it’s only a matter of time before they become fish food.

siegecrossbow said:

The really useful thing about someone like Chen is actually demonstrating how weak and emasculated the current DPP is by letting a top influencer get away with rabid pro PRC propaganda. Once the sharks smell blood it’s only a matter of time before they become fish food.

Click to expand...

He's also useful in panicking the KMT. Those KMT old men always figured if there's AR and it goes badly for ROC they will be the one in position to negotiate terms with CPC and thus secure a future for themselves. 馆长 shows that may not be a sure bet any more.

gpt said:

It's the Davidson Window, something that took the DC blob by storm a few years ago. The idea is since the US military is undergoing its own period of modernization and retooling, shifting from fighting in the Middle East to the vast expanse of the Western Pacific, it was suggested that around 2027 will be when PLAN and the USN's capabilities are at their closest.

So that's where that date came from. But some politicians twisted it by claiming they 'received intelligence' that suggests Xi is genuinely planning to launch an invasion by that date, something even JCS General Milley came out and denied.

Click to expand...

Not so much a window as a door. Once you walk through it there is no turning back.

If you think about it logically, a peaceful reunification in the next few years might actually be the single gravest threat the PLA could realistically face in terms of jeopardising its future funding and the pace and scope of its modernisation plans.

Forcing Taiwan to peacefully reunite with the mainland might be the only viable way for America to have any remotely achievable chance of maintaining its (on paper at least) military advantage over China beyond 2030.

plawolf said:

If you think about it logically, a peaceful reunification in the next few years might actually be the single gravest threat the PLA could realistically face in terms of jeopardising its future funding and the pace and scope of its modernisation plans.

Forcing Taiwan to peacefully reunite with the mainland might be the only viable way for America to have any remotely achievable chance of maintaining its (on paper at least) military advantage over China beyond 2030.

Click to expand...

I don't see that scenario working out for the US either.

Whilst there may be fewer resources devoted to the Chinese military, this will now be concentrated on distant power projection, rather than primarily on Taiwan itself.

gpt said:

It's the Davidson Window, something that took the DC blob by storm a few years ago. The idea is since the US military is undergoing its own period of modernization and retooling, shifting from fighting in the Middle East to the vast expanse of the Western Pacific, it was suggested that around 2027 will be when PLAN and the USN's capabilities are at their closest.

So that's where that date came from. But some politicians twisted it by claiming they 'received intelligence' that suggests Xi is genuinely planning to launch an invasion by that date, something even JCS General Milley came out and denied.

Click to expand...

Again that "window" is probably just hype and doomsaying in order to get some more funds.
Funnily enough, General Milley's denial of the 2027 invasion claim was hushed under the rug.
You would be hard pressed to find any official coverage on it to the extent that other stories are covered when it comes to Taiwan.

AndrewS said:

I don't see that scenario working out for the US either.

Whilst there may be fewer resources devoted to the Chinese military, this will now be concentrated on distant power projection, rather than primarily on Taiwan itself.

Click to expand...

That comment was largely tongue in cheek, but if Taiwan did reunify with China peacefully and America scaled back its offensive force posturing around China, there will be increased public pressure and genuine questioning within the Party itself on whether the heavy defence spending is still justified.

Sure there will still be plenty of people and factions within China and the PLA who will push for the PLA to have increased power project capabilities globally, but it will be far harder to justify the costs of those ambitions as opposed to now, when it’s basically a no-brainer issue for China of spend on defence or risk another century of humiliation.

China will have to be stupid to skimp on defence spending. But time and again that’s what Chinese dynasties have consistently done before a major decline. China’s greatest enemies have historically been internal rather than external. America is actually doing a great service for modern China by keeping the idealistic idiots, cowards, greedy and selfish people within its society sidelined with its constant threats and pressuring so they cannot argue that defence funds are better spent on palaces and other luxuries for themselves.

plawolf said:

That comment was largely tongue in cheek, but if Taiwan did reunify with China peacefully and America scaled back its offensive force posturing around China, there will be increased public pressure and genuine questioning within the Party itself on whether the heavy defence spending is still justified.

Click to expand...

China's current military expenditure is less than 2% of GDP, which is a fairly healthy level. Maintaining this level is sufficient. The Chinese public has no concerns about current defense investment and will be satisfied as long as it can demonstrate some promising results in due course.
What you said about Chinese history differs slightly from what I know. Many dynasties in Chinese history fell due to excessive military spending.
If the United States ever withdraws from the Western Pacific, the Chinese government will simply maintain its current defense budget and devote any remaining resources to improving people's livelihoods.

plawolf said:

That comment was largely tongue in cheek, but if Taiwan did reunify with China peacefully and America scaled back its offensive force posturing around China, there will be increased public pressure and genuine questioning within the Party itself on whether the heavy defence spending is still justified.

Click to expand...

But the defense spending isn't heavy at all. It looks heavy because of the results, but the results are impressive because of China's gargantuan industrial capabilities, not because of unsustainable financial expenditure.