PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

FairAndUnbiased said:

Not because of lack of will, but lack of ability.

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Temstar said:

As Shilao like to use as an example: is it outside of ROC's ability to fire several Hsiung Feng IIE missiles loaded with VX at major PRC cities? If it is within their capability, can PLAAF guarantee to intercept all of them? Can we assume ROC government won't resort to it in times of war?

You can argue that such an attack would draw nuclear retaliation from PRC, but that won't bring back the dead would it?

Therefore ROC is very much a threat and why peaceful reunification is still preferred. Don't say it won't happen, the chances of peaceful reunification has in fact increased in recent month due to events like 馆长's visit and the failed Recall.

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Temstar said:

As Shilao like to use as an example: is it outside of ROC's ability to fire several Hsiung Feng IIE missiles loaded with VX at major PRC cities? If it is within their capability, can PLAAF guarantee to intercept all of them? Can we assume ROC government won't resort to it in times of war?

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4Tran said:

We can safely eliminate this as a possiblity:

1. Taiwan doesn't have VX or anything similar.
2. The DPP wouldn't think about acquiring something like it because it's not a potent enough card.
3. The ROCA wouldn't want anything to do with it because it doesn't want to antagonize China.
4. Nobody would sell such weapons to Taiwan.
5. China would know what's going on as soon as Taiwan makes any plans to build their own NBC weapons.

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RoastGooseHKer said:

Theoretically speaking, Taiwan's ultimately deterrence remains targeting the Three Gorges Dam. But we all know how difficult that would be. I wouldn't be surprised if Taiwan already possess ballistic and cruise missiles capable of reaching Three Gorges, but even if these missiles manage to fly through China's layered air defence system, I don't see how you can break such a massive cement dam with 250-500 kg warheads. Of course, Taiwan could hit smaller dams to cause floods, as well as hitting nuclear power plants in Fujian. Yet, doing so would likely lead to a WMD counter-value response from the PRC.

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RoastGooseHKer said:

Theoretically speaking, Taiwan's ultimately deterrence remains targeting the Three Gorges Dam. But we all know how difficult that would be. I wouldn't be surprised if Taiwan already possess ballistic and cruise missiles capable of reaching Three Gorges, but even if these missiles manage to fly through China's layered air defence system, I don't see how you can break such a massive cement dam with 250-500 kg warheads. Of course, Taiwan could hit smaller dams to cause floods, as well as hitting nuclear power plants in Fujian. Yet, doing so would likely lead to a WMD counter-value response from the PRC.

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萌萌与猫猫 said:

I am extremely pessimistic about this possibility. Currently, the other side has already invested ambitions and funds that are disproportionate to its capabilities, especially in military technology. How can you expect an entity that has already decided to purchase large quantities of equipment at any cost to surrender?

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4Tran said:

China doesn't have to force Taiwan to surrender. It just has to create conditions that make a peaceful reunification a possibility, and diplomacy can do the rest. I feel that China would be willing to cut Taiwan an extremely generous deal, so it's well within the realm of possibility. Right now, the Pro-Greens are spreading propaganda about how awful the living conditions in China are, but cracks are starting to form within this narrative, and it can't hold for very long. Also, there's no real time limit on any of this happening, so it's probably going just be a matter of time.

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