Reminder that Taiwan did not stop the Guanbi policy voluntarily.
They stopped when the PLAN sank their patrol ships.
PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency
- Thread starter pugachev_diver
- Start date
They stopped when the PLAN sank their patrol ships.
Taiwan is no longer perceived by the CPC as a persistent strategic threat.
And frankly it hasn't been one for many, many decades.
Which is one of the reasons PRC is not scrambling to "eliminate" said threat by any means necessary.
The means that Taiwan has to threaten China have decreased in number over the years but you cannot deny that it is currently an active contributor to the ongoing efforts to contain China economically and technologically.
Active contributor how? For example, half of ROCs foreign direct investments go to the mainland and have been going there for decades. One out of every three Taiwanese expats is working in China. Right now. China is the main/biggest export and import partner of Taiwan.
That is not containment policy. It would be actually easier for someone to argue that Taiwan is the one contained here, or rather, dependent on China to function.
And in any case, CERTAINLY not a persistent strategic threat?
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The Strait War was just the prelude, fuse, and skirmish of the Pacific War.
It is a bit naive to think that the mainland really values Taiwan and will gamble everything to get Taiwan. We all know that Taiwan is just dancing under the baton of Washington, and does not have the ability and courage to really gamble everything either
To paraphrase a famous line from Let the Bullets Fly, "Neither you nor money is important to me. What is important to me is that you no longer exist."
It is a bit naive to think that the mainland really values Taiwan and will gamble everything to get Taiwan. We all know that Taiwan is just dancing under the baton of Washington, and does not have the ability and courage to really gamble everything either
To paraphrase a famous line from Let the Bullets Fly, "Neither you nor money is important to me. What is important to me is that you no longer exist."
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Taiwan's current threat to China is zero.
Untrue. China wants Taiwan for Taiwan's sake. It's a big mistake to look at China's intentions based on what Americans say it is. Instead, it's better to look at what Chinese leaders say about Taiwan and in those cases, they rarely mention the US. And the reasons for this is obvious. The first is that Taiwan is the last piece from the Century of Humiliation to be reconsolidated. Without it, the Century of Humiliation isn't truly over and so Reunification is a vital part of the Chinese Dream.
The second reaon is that China has no reason to fight against the US. China isn't an expansionist empire, so it's not looking to conquer territory. China isn't even interested establishing an hegemony; gathering vassals and allies to counter American strength. If any of this were true, China's diplomatic posture would be very different. Once upon a time, China was very worried about American bases in the Western Pacific, but that's no longer the case. Realistically, the only reason China is worried about the US military is because of American moves rather than goals of their own (Taiwan notwithstanding). Just look at that 2027 deadline that keeps getting brought up - that was invented by the Americans, and has no bearing on reality.
Threat or whatever terminology is not the problem here. Would you tolerate a hostile entity so close to your economic hubs? Why would a major power tolerate efforts to contain its economic and technological development?
Additionally, I don't find doing business with IJA worshippers appealing.
Taiwan isn't actually hostile though. Despite all the rhetoric from the DPP, they're never going to allow the ROCA to act against China. Remember that the DPP's main goal is to retain power in Taiwan, and so their main opponents are actually the KMT and the ROCA.
As for the last bit, there are a ton of IJA worshippers in Japan itself, and China is perfectly fine doing business with them. Hell, Shinzo Abe's grandfather was literally a Japanese war criminal who instituted the use of Chinese slaves in Manchuria.
Not because of lack of will, but lack of ability.
Japanese IJA worshippers aren't sellouts who betrayed their own though.