PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

Temstar

Temstar

Brigadier
Registered Member
FairAndUnbiased said:
Not because of lack of will, but lack of ability.
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As Shilao like to use as an example: is it outside of ROC's ability to fire several Hsiung Feng IIE missiles loaded with VX at major PRC cities? If it is within their capability, can PLAAF guarantee to intercept all of them? Can we assume ROC government won't resort to it in times of war?

You can argue that such an attack would draw nuclear retaliation from PRC, but that won't bring back the dead would it?

Therefore ROC is very much a threat and why peaceful reunification is still preferred. Don't say it won't happen, the chances of peaceful reunification has in fact increased in recent month due to events like 馆长's visit and the failed Recall.
 
bsdnf

bsdnf

Junior Member
Registered Member
Temstar said:
As Shilao like to use as an example: is it outside of ROC's ability to fire several Hsiung Feng IIE missiles loaded with VX at major PRC cities? If it is within their capability, can PLAAF guarantee to intercept all of them? Can we assume ROC government won't resort to it in times of war?

You can argue that such an attack would draw nuclear retaliation from PRC, but that won't bring back the dead would it?

Therefore ROC is very much a threat and why peaceful reunification is still preferred. Don't say it won't happen, the chances of peaceful reunification has in fact increased in recent month due to events like 馆长's visit and the failed Recall.
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To put it more cruelly, even if the poison gas war succeeded and a lot people died, and then what? This would not affect the China-US balance of power at all. It is even more impossible to use this as a threat to force the mainland to make concessions.
 
4

4Tran

Junior Member
Registered Member
Temstar said:
As Shilao like to use as an example: is it outside of ROC's ability to fire several Hsiung Feng IIE missiles loaded with VX at major PRC cities? If it is within their capability, can PLAAF guarantee to intercept all of them? Can we assume ROC government won't resort to it in times of war?
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We can safely eliminate this as a possiblity:

1. Taiwan doesn't have VX or anything similar.
2. The DPP wouldn't think about acquiring something like it because it's not a potent enough card.
3. The ROCA wouldn't want anything to do with it because it doesn't want to antagonize China.
4. Nobody would sell such weapons to Taiwan.
5. China would know what's going on as soon as Taiwan makes any plans to build their own NBC weapons.
 
R

RoastGooseHKer

Junior Member
Registered Member
4Tran said:
We can safely eliminate this as a possiblity:

1. Taiwan doesn't have VX or anything similar.
2. The DPP wouldn't think about acquiring something like it because it's not a potent enough card.
3. The ROCA wouldn't want anything to do with it because it doesn't want to antagonize China.
4. Nobody would sell such weapons to Taiwan.
5. China would know what's going on as soon as Taiwan makes any plans to build their own NBC weapons.
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Theoretically speaking, Taiwan's ultimately deterrence remains targeting the Three Gorges Dam. But we all know how difficult that would be. I wouldn't be surprised if Taiwan already possess ballistic and cruise missiles capable of reaching Three Gorges, but even if these missiles manage to fly through China's layered air defence system, I don't see how you can break such a massive cement dam with 250-500 kg warheads. Of course, Taiwan could hit smaller dams to cause floods, as well as hitting nuclear power plants in Fujian. Yet, doing so would likely lead to a WMD counter-value response from the PRC.
 
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AsuraGodFiend

New Member
Registered Member
RoastGooseHKer said:
Theoretically speaking, Taiwan's ultimately deterrence remains targeting the Three Gorges Dam. But we all know how difficult that would be. I wouldn't be surprised if Taiwan already possess ballistic and cruise missiles capable of reaching Three Gorges, but even if these missiles manage to fly through China's layered air defence system, I don't see how you can break such a massive cement dam with 250-500 kg warheads. Of course, Taiwan could hit smaller dams to cause floods, as well as hitting nuclear power plants in Fujian. Yet, doing so would likely lead to a WMD counter-value response from the PRC.
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First It's a gravity dam, second highly protect deep in the mainland, third Taiwan doesn't want to live, fourth not possible
 
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