Some very wild aircraft numbers being thrown around, but what is the context?
One post has ROCAF being wiped out almost instantly, so how long would it take US forced to scramble these numbers?
If ROCAF is wiped out, then the situation on the ground is quite dire. Would these numbers feasibly dislodge PLA forces once on the ground?
What role do sea based SAMs play? What if 4 055 were in the strait?
I think you might be referring to my post. The premise is that this will likely be a gradual buildup in PLAAF presence around Taiwan. As PLAAF continues to build up and dominate the air space over Taiwan, that will demoralize ROCAF and the rest of Taiwanese military. Not just in terms of ROCAF unable to intercept PLAAF aircraft but also getting consistently locked on when they do engage. That's psychologically a huge strike in the mind of ROCAF. ROCAF is also facing a crisis of getting adequately trained pilots in its service. It's not coincidence that we are seeing this many fatal crashes with ROCAF. It's like to get even worse and PLAAF's J-16 fleet continues to increase its size. Adding F-16Vs with not help ROCAF if they can't get experienced pilots into them. As PLAAF normalizes larger and large air groups in these incursions, ROCAF is leaving itself vulnerable to a day when PLAAF actually does attack. Until then, it's one of the best places for PLAAF to train and coordinate larger and larger attack formations. It also puts the inevitably of unification on the mind of Taiwanese public, especially the society elites in Taipei. Those were already the most likely of Taiwanese society to accept a re-runification. Culturally, Taiwan is a lot closer to China than Hong Kong is. There is a lot of Taiwanese that live or have worked out of mainland. When I went there in 2017, I didn't sense Taiwanese people looking down on mainlanders in the same way that they did 15 years ago.
So ideally, you put so much military and economic pressure over Taiwan that they accept some form a re-unification. Something like continued self governance but handing all the military base and protection over to PLAAF. That alone would open a huge lane for PLAN into the second chain. I would put this as not very likely.
In the scenario where Taiwan does not agree to re-unification, the next best option is a lightning quick attack that disables all of Taiwan's air defense and destroys military aircraft while they are on the ground followed by landing a lot of troops next to Taipei, Taichung and Kaohsiung. That's where the Y-20s, 071s/075s, UCAVs and attack helicopters come into play. You want to take over all the major government and media building as quickly and with little damage/deaths as possible. Of course, they should land enough troops into Taiwan to fight a more resistant army. The goal is to demoralize the politicians, the elites and the army so much, that they will quickly give up. PLA should not voluntarily attempt an offensive until they are confident of this.
In this scenario, there is a very good chance no other countries will get involved. That's the best case scenario for the regular folks around the world.
We need to see the following with PLA:
- Overwhelming dominance and control of air space of Taiwan. That requires ability to sustain large aircraft formations for long period of time. (this is the most important)
- Large fleet of Y-20s able to drop a lot of troops and tanks into Taiwan.
- More LHDs and LPDs able to transport a lot of amphibious combat vehicles, troops into Taiwan
- A lot more helicopters - both of attack and transport variety. Need to see Type 075s with a large horde of attack helicopter.
- UCAVs that can take out Taiwanese armored vehicle when given complete air control
All of the above can be achieved in the next few years.
I definitely do not think it's in China's best interest to get into a full out war with Japan. Too much economic dependence between the two countries. It's in China's national interest to keep any conflict to a rapid takeover of Taiwan like how Russia took over Crimea.
Now, the PLA commanders have to plan for the scenario of US and Japan getting involved. So, they have to plan for mostly taking over Taiwan and then having to defend it from US looking to free Taiwan. That's the scenario where you need to have a sizable numerical advantage in 5th gen aircraft and a good number of stealth bombers. That's what will allow them to retain advantage in any subsequent conflict.
Again, steer clear of any thoughts about taking over disputed islands. China still needs to have normal trading relationship with other countries after all is over. They really just need to not have Taiwan blocking their navy into the 2nd chain of islands.
