PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

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supersnoop

Major
Registered Member
Some very wild aircraft numbers being thrown around, but what is the context?

One post has ROCAF being wiped out almost instantly, so how long would it take US forced to scramble these numbers?

If ROCAF is wiped out, then the situation on the ground is quite dire. Would these numbers feasibly dislodge PLA forces once on the ground?

What role do sea based SAMs play? What if 4 055 were in the strait?
 
plawolf

plawolf

Lieutenant General
james smith esq said:
As many have observed, one of the biggest questions is the involvement of US forces and bases on the Ryukus.

It seems, to me, that, should Japan allow US forces stationed there to participate, either actively or passively, in any anti-China campaign, this would, by necessity, invite (require) China to target and neutralize those forces and their bases. (And, I believe this to be true of any country in the region, as well.)

A question this potential scenario raises is whether Japan would consider such an attack upon Japanese territory as an outright declaration of war upon Japan as a whole. Under such circumstances, the Japan/US “alliance” might be emboldened to attempt attacks against the Chinese mainland (which, according to my assumptions, would be avoided, initially). I can only see this as ending poorly for all involved, with Japan being the biggest loser.

So, for me, the biggest question in the East China Sea, western Pacific, is what role will the Ryukus play!
Click to expand...

75FB2A9B-075C-4E95-BBDE-1705595E6525.jpeg

In the event of Japan allowing the US to launch direct military attacks against Chinese targets from its territory, it won’t be the Japanese who will be declaring war.

I have previously pointed out that while the likes of the 071 and 075 may seem overkill for Taiwan, they are perfect for island hopping up the first island chain, and Japan allowing America to launch attacks from those islands against China would be the perfect pretext under which for China to take them in the name of self defence.
 
BoraTas

BoraTas

Captain
Registered Member
plawolf said:
View attachment 82087

In the event of Japan allowing the US to launch direct military attacks against Chinese targets from its territory, it won’t be the Japanese who will be declaring war.

I have previously pointed out that while the likes of the 071 and 075 may seem overkill for Taiwan, they are perfect for island hopping up the first island chain, and Japan allowing America to launch attacks from those islands against China would be the perfect pretext under which for China to take them in the name of self defence.
Click to expand...
To argue, larger vehicles have better payload weight to vehicle weight ratios because of the scaling law. This is actually what has been driving the size of commercial ships up. Even for the Taiwan scenario LPD and LHDs may be better choices because of this. They also have capabilities that small LCUs, LCTs, LSMs and LSTs do not have.
- They are faster
- More survivable in all aspects. From durability to air defense (which most smaller craft simply do not have)
- Can launch very large numbers of Amphibious vehicles or LCACs from beyond the horizon.
- Better seakeeping
- Being able to provide logistic support
 
BoraTas

BoraTas

Captain
Registered Member
plawolf said:
View attachment 82087

In the event of Japan allowing the US to launch direct military attacks against Chinese targets from its territory, it won’t be the Japanese who will be declaring war.

I have previously pointed out that while the likes of the 071 and 075 may seem overkill for Taiwan, they are perfect for island hopping up the first island chain, and Japan allowing America to launch attacks from those islands against China would be the perfect pretext under which for China to take them in the name of self defence.
Click to expand...
To argue, larger vehicles have better payload weight to vehicle weight ratios because of the scaling law. This is actually what has been driving the size of commercial ships up. Even for the Taiwan scenario LPD and LHDs may be better choices because of this. They also have capabilities that small LCUs, LCTs, LSMs and LSTs do not have.
- They are faster
- More survivable in all aspects. From durability to air defense (which most smaller craft simply do not have)
- Can launch very large numbers of Amphibious vehicles or LCACs from beyond the horizon.
- Better seakeeping
- Being able to provide logistic support
 
solarz

solarz

Brigadier
A war with China over Taiwan is a nightmare scenario for the US.

Any escalation will have unpredictable results. Does anyone believe that once the missiles start flying, Russia and North Korea will sit still?

Remember that NK has a mutual defense treaty with China. Should the US attack China over Taiwan, the treaty will be invoked. NK has been itching to fight SK for decades. Should the US find itself in a two-front war in the West Pacific, Russia will make is move on Ukraine. NATO gets involved, and pretty soon US is fighting on three fronts.

While the US is busy, Israel's neighbors will see this as the perfect opportunity for some payback.
 
T

Totoro

Major
VIP Professional
Russia getting involved in the Taiwan/Pacific war might be the worst thing for China's long term interests. If it starts a chain reaction of even more countries getting involved in the war.
 
A

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
james smith esq said:
As many have observed, one of the biggest questions is the involvement of US forces and bases on the Ryukus.

It seems, to me, that, should Japan allow US forces stationed there to participate, either actively or passively, in any anti-China campaign, this would, by necessity, invite (require) China to target and neutralize those forces and their bases. (And, I believe this to be true of any country in the region, as well.)

A question this potential scenario raises is whether Japan would consider such an attack upon Japanese territory as an outright declaration of war upon Japan as a whole. Under such circumstances, the Japan/US “alliance” might be emboldened to attempt attacks against the Chinese mainland (which, according to my assumptions, would be avoided, initially). I can only see this as ending poorly for all involved, with Japan being the biggest loser.

So, for me, the biggest question in the East China Sea, western Pacific, is what role will the Ryukus play!
Click to expand...

If Japan allows bases on its soil to be used by the US military against China, then Japan (as a whole) has declared war on China.
There's no debate on this point.

How China responds will depend on the situation.
1. If things go well for China, then there's no need to attack the Japanese Home Islands anyway. But China still wins over Taiwan, so what was the point of Japan declaring war in the first place?
2. But if Japan starts hosting US aircraft and it starts to make a difference, those bases in the Japanese Home Islands will definitely be attacked.
 
A

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
Totoro said:
Russia getting involved in the Taiwan/Pacific war might be the worst thing for China's long term interests. If it starts a chain reaction of even more countries getting involved in the war.
Click to expand...

I'd say Russia can and will stay out of any Pacific War.
As long as China can transit through North Korea, the Russians don't add that much capability so they might as well stay neutral
 
Maikeru

Maikeru

Major
Registered Member
I can see NTC Group Armies moving into (or at least near) DPRK and PLAN CVBGs operating east of Japan - or maybe even near Hawaii/Alaska - in order to complicate Japanese/US thinking in response to a PRC move on Taiwan.
 
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