PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

00CuriousObserver

Senior Member
Registered Member
The PLA really does need to significantly buff up its presence and strength in the eastern sector of China's Dongbei. That is, China couldn't rely/depend on Russia and North Korea for guarding and defending the Dongbei's eastern frontier - The former's air force doesn't exactly has brilliant performances in Ukraine over the past 3+ years, whereas the latter's air force is basically a pile of Cold War relics.

Enemy airborne and seaborne forces could easily launch standoff missile attacks over the Sea of Japan with impunity against key targets in Dongbei through the North Korean and Russian airspaces - And the PLAAF must be able to counter such threats by having consistent presence over the Sea of Japan.

It'd be great if China and Russia can work together towards establishing a NORAD-equivalent that covers the eastern sector of the Chinese Dongbei and the Russian Far East districts, alongside aerial corridors where PLA warplanes can easily traverse between the Dongbei and the Sea of Japan.

I'd imagine it's rather politically complicated. Beefing up force postures in this area would inevitably raise suspicion in Russia and NK, even if the intention is made clear.

You also need long term certainty to make such expansion a worthy investment as the payoff requires transiting Russian/NK airspace. Ideally the PLA would not just be limited to defending the area, but would also take the initiative and actively conduct operations over the Sea of Japan, or even Japan itself during wartime, especially in a way that would force Japan to redirect its forces away from Ryukyu. How would these operations complicate Japan–Russia relations? Such an expansion would also be substantial and would essentially dominate the region with regard to Russia and NK, especially with six gens and the H-20 factored in.

Then there are questions about whether the PLAN will participate in the Sea of Japan and whether this would involve Haishenwai (would the Tsushima Strait be considered untraversable during the conflict). Unlike in the Ukraine war where China's direct involvement is difficult, Russia would be much more likely to be directly dragged into this conflict.

So in some sense, the Ukraine War has done us a factor. But please Wang Yi and Zhang Youxia, keep those 战略互信 Strategic Mutual Trust coming.
 
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AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
For reference - There are only about three PLAAF bases which directly faces the Sea of Japan at the eastern sector of Dongbei, with two of the closest ones (Yanji and Mudanjiang) only fielding J-10s at best and not featuring any hardened aircraft shelters. The one which is recently expanded + upgraded and fielding J-16s (Qiqihar) are about 1000 kilometers deeper inland.

View attachment 166091

The PLA really does need to significantly buff up its presence and strength in the eastern sector of China's Dongbei. That is, China couldn't rely/depend on Russia and North Korea for guarding and defending the Dongbei's eastern frontier - The former's air force doesn't exactly has brilliant performances in Ukraine over the past 3+ years, whereas the latter's air force is basically a pile of Cold War relics.

If attacks are being conducted through Russian airspace, that would be an act of war.
Given how the US refrains from attacking a nuclear-armed Russia due to Ukraine, I don't see the US doing this.

But let's say this does happen. Well, now the US is at war with Russia, in addition to China. It means:

1. Russian airspace is now open for use by China. So Chinese aircraft can cross the Vladivostok area and reach Japan. All of the Japanese Home Islands are now within 1300km, which can be reached by:

a) Heavyweight fighter jets like the J-20 or Flankers
b) High-end subsonic cruise missiles in the Tomahawk/JASSM-class
c) Very low cost piston-engine cruise missiles in the Shaheed-class

2. Russian airbases are presumably also now available, with Chinese forces based on Sakhalin island which is just 50km from Hokkaido. Chinese air-superiority over Northern Japan is now likely. After Taiwan is done, a Chinese invasion of Hokkaido would be feasible.

3. China would likely redirect all dual-use exports towards Chinese or Russian use. Remember where most of the world's drone components come from.

Yes, the Russian Air Force is lacking, but the Chinese Air Force can more than make up for this.

----

Let's take the scenario where China is attacked by the US through North Korean airspace.
Now the US is at war with North Korea, in addition to China.

1. It means North Korean airspace is open to Chinese aircraft, and again, all of the Japanese Home Islands are within 1300km like in the previous scenario.

2. Both China and North Korea have the option of restarting the Korean civil war, which would drag the US Army into an unwinnable land war against the Chinese Army, where China has a decisive advantage.
 

Gloire_bb

Major
Registered Member
The PLA really does need to significantly buff up its presence and strength in the eastern sector of China's Dongbei. That is, China couldn't rely/depend on Russia and North Korea for guarding and defending the Dongbei's eastern frontier - The former's air force doesn't exactly has brilliant performances in Ukraine over the past 3+ years, whereas the latter's air force is basically a pile of Cold War relics.
VKS is lacking in air to surface part, especially stand in.
In A2A and stand off there's nothing wrong with them, and their material state is ahead, significantly, of JASDF.
 

Sinnavuuty

Captain
Registered Member
I missed some things. I don't know if the things I want to share were mentioned in the forum. But I don't think there is any relevant content under this topic.
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The length of the video is a bit annoying, and it's an AI translation, with no subtitles.
This TV program interviewed retired generals of the JSDF, so the program has a strong political propaganda color. They call it the 'dawn of the new era'
I don't want to translate other nonsense because they are all political propaganda based on supporting the policies of the ruling party and support for the Prime Minister. For them, strengthening the military through "defense" is naturally a good thing.
The most astonishing part is the following:
1、 There is no clear provision that Japan can‘t have(me:really?) aircraft carriers, ICBM and strategic bombers.
2、The ability to take preemptive action(attack) is necessary. Like Israel and the United States bombing Iran.
3、Russia's nuclear threat violates the principle of nuclear non-proliferation, therefore Japan should negotiate with the United States to deploy nuclear weapons in Japan, and Japan should be granted the authority to decide whether to use (US) nuclear weapons.
View attachment 165977
——They seem to want to rebuild the island fortresses(absolute zone of national defense)from the World War II era.


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View attachment 165978
——It has to be said that the civilian scholars are more radical than the military.
His idea is in wartime, the JMSDF will enter the "dangerous area" in the name of evacuate their citizens. They will explicitly warn China not to obstruct. If their "humanitarian assistance" is blocked, it is an attack on Japan. And PLA as “inexperienced army' may pull the trigger first.
Do that and they will suffer a fate worse than Nagasaki and Hiroshima.
 

votran

Junior Member
Registered Member
Do that and they will suffer a fate worse than Nagasaki and Hiroshima.
personally i think regular missile attack today ....not enough . specially when use again any place larger than taiwan

russia lob iskander and kh-101 toward ukraine for years ...the result still very limited .

best way to defeat nations with heavy demographic situation , too many old people like japan is ......target the youth population

nothing fucked up a nation more than youth population killed in mass , they are the future , the hope , the last group of being a nation want to spend in war

if they die in mass , whole nation fucked
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
personally i think regular missile attack today ....not enough . specially when use again any place larger than taiwan

russia lob iskander and kh-101 toward ukraine for years ...the result still very limited .

best way to defeat nations with heavy demographic situation , too many old people like japan is ......target the youth population

nothing fucked up a nation more than youth population killed in mass , they are the future , the hope , the last group of being a nation want to spend in war

if they die in mass , whole nation fucked

Entirely different situations. Ukraine could endure despite losing most of its industry because of functionally unlimited supply of everything they need by land routes from neighbouring NATO member states that are effectively immune to Russian interdiction.

Japan is an island nation far from friendly supplies and close to hostile missiles. Trying to resupply Japan during a full war with China and/or Russia will be an incredibly costly exercise in futility.

I would also say China would never stoop to such lows as to deliberately target young civilians. However, if the Japanese regime wants to round them up Ukraine style and force feed them into a meat grinder, I think China will be fine to oblige and order extra robots and drones to slow grind them instead of seeking costly (to Chinese lives) rapid advances to end the war quicker.
 
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