PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

AndrewS said:

That is not correct.

There is a reason that the PAP exists. They were previously the internal security units of the PLA.

The whole point of this separation was so that:

1. The PAP has its primary mission as internal security, with a secondary military mission
2. The PLA has its the primary mission as military, with a secondary internal security mission

This division is supported more recently by primary sources asserting that Xi Jinping is laser focused on:
a) The 2027 target to have the capability to invade and conquer Taiwan
b) ruthless decision making based on what he believes is in China's national interest

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It is actually correct that the PLA's "primary" mission is keeping the CCP in power. But it's not contradictory with the fact that the PLA is a primarily external force or that the PLA will partake in foreign conquest missions, which is the wrong conclusion that some have. Look no further than the PRC"s own national security law:

中国人民解放军由现役部队和预备役部队组成，在新时代的使命任务是为巩固中国共产党领导和社会主义制度，为捍卫国家主权、统一、领土完整，为维护国家海外利益，为促进世界和平与发展，提供战略支撑。

The People’s Liberation Army of China is composed of active-duty forces and reserve forces. In the new era, its missions and tasks are to provide strategic support for consolidating the leadership of the Communist Party of China and the socialist system, for safeguarding national sovereignty, unity, and territorial integrity, for protecting China’s overseas interests, and for promoting world peace and development.

The ordering of the objectives absolutely matters here.

00CuriousObserver said:

It is actually correct that the PLA's "primary" mission is keeping the CCP in power. But it's not contradictory with the fact that the PLA is a primarily external force or that the PLA will not partake in foreign conquest missions, which is the wrong conclusion that some have. Look no further than the PRC"s own national security law:

中国人民解放军由现役部队和预备役部队组成，在新时代的使命任务是为巩固中国共产党领导和社会主义制度，为捍卫国家主权、统一、领土完整，为维护国家海外利益，为促进世界和平与发展，提供战略支撑。

The People’s Liberation Army of China is composed of active-duty forces and reserve forces. In the new era, its missions and tasks are to provide strategic support for consolidating the leadership of the Communist Party of China and the socialist system, for safeguarding national sovereignty, unity, and territorial integrity, for protecting China’s overseas interests, and for promoting world peace and development.

The ordering of the objectives absolutely matters here.

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If it can’t safeguard sovereignty and national security then the CPC’s leadership can’t be consolidated. It isn’t really so much ordered objectives as equally important objectives.

siegecrossbow said:

If it can’t safeguard sovereignty and national security then the CPC’s leadership can’t be consolidated. It isn’t really so much ordered objectives as equally important objectives.

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Of course. But then the debate goes "well how much of that 'safeguarding sovereignty' will come at the risk of leadership consolidation" (ie the Taiwan war)

Oh look, Papa's coming to the rescue... with two B-52s!

ACuriousPLAFan said:

Oh look, Papa's coming to the rescue... with two B-52s!

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1999050778925818111

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It's kinda impressive that this happened so soon after the Sino Russian exercise, even though they likely anticipated it.

Also, the PLA's force posture in Dongbei towards the Sea of Japan seems somewhat weak, even if/when Russia opens up the airspace to allow PLAAF activity there. I'd imagine there are still quite a few political hurdles to overcome before we see large scale expansions in Dongbei.

CMP said:

And yet Singapore has very clearly positioned itself as militarily on the side of the US, as a place from which they can launch attacks and refuel/resupply. This should not be forgotten.

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Singapore is a small entrepot island city-state, which is extraordinarily dependent on seaborne shipping and foreign trade.

At the same time, Singapore has much larger Malay Muslim majority neighbours to the North and to the South. In the past, relations have ranged from prickly to absolutely terrible.

So is it a surprise that they have aligned with the US military as a guarantor of their territorial and economic independence?

But we can see that the days of the US being able to perform this role are coming to an end.

---

Yes, Singapore hosts a US military base and US ships.

But I think it would be a huge strategic mistake if Singapore ever allowed the US to actually use Singapore for wartime missions against China.

I do think that Singapore can remain neutral in a China-US competition or war.
That comes from being embedded within ASEAN, which is large and influential enough to demand neutrality from both China and the USA.

AndrewS said:

Yes, Singapore hosts a US military base and US ships.

But I think it would be a huge strategic mistake if Singapore ever allowed the US to actually use Singapore for wartime missions against China.

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Maybe, but the Singapore PM has made it clear he'll stand with the US in the Chinese Civil War Phase II. PLA needs to plan accordingly

00CuriousObserver said:

Also, the PLA's force posture in Dongbei towards the Sea of Japan seems somewhat weak, even if/when Russia opens up the airspace to allow PLAAF activity there. I'd imagine there are still quite a few political hurdles to overcome before we see large scale expansions in Dongbei.

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For reference - There are only about three PLAAF bases which directly faces the Sea of Japan at the eastern sector of Dongbei, with two of the closest ones (Yanji and Mudanjiang) only fielding J-10s at best and not featuring any hardened aircraft shelters. The one which is recently expanded + upgraded and fielding J-16s (Qiqihar) are about 1000 kilometers deeper inland.



The PLA really does need to significantly buff up its presence and strength in the eastern sector of China's Dongbei. That is, China couldn't rely/depend on Russia and North Korea for guarding and defending the Dongbei's eastern frontier - The former's air force doesn't exactly has brilliant performances in Ukraine over the past 3+ years, whereas the latter's air force is basically a pile of Cold War relics.

Enemy airborne and seaborne forces could easily launch standoff missile attacks over the Sea of Japan with impunity against key targets in Dongbei through the North Korean and Russian airspaces - And the PLAAF must be able to counter such threats by having consistent presence over the Sea of Japan.

It'd be great if China and Russia can work together towards establishing a NORAD-equivalent that covers the eastern sector of the Chinese Dongbei and the Russian Far East districts, alongside aerial corridors where PLA warplanes can easily traverse between the Dongbei and the Sea of Japan.

ACuriousPLAFan said:

The PLA really does need to significantly buff up its presence and strength in the eastern sector of China's Dongbei. That is, China couldn't rely/depend on Russia and North Korea for guarding and defending the Dongbei's eastern frontier - The former's air force doesn't exactly has brilliant performances in Ukraine over the past 3+ years, whereas the latter's air force is basically a pile of Cold War relics.

Enemy airborne and seaborne forces could easily launch standoff missile attacks over the Sea of Japan with impunity against key targets in Dongbei through the North Korean and Russian airspaces - And the PLAAF must be able to counter such threats by having consistent presence over the Sea of Japan.

It'd be great if China and Russia can work together towards establishing a NORAD-equivalent that covers the eastern sector of the Chinese Dongbei and the Russian Far East districts, alongside aerial corridors where PLA warplanes can easily traverse between the Dongbei and the Sea of Japan.

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I'd imagine it's rather politically complicated. Beefing up force postures in this area would inevitably raise suspicion in Russia and NK, even if the intention is made clear.

You also need long term certainty to make such expansion a worthy investment as the payoff requires transiting Russian/NK airspace. Ideally the PLA would not just be limited to defending the area, but would also take the initiative and actively conduct operations over the Sea of Japan, or even Japan itself during wartime, especially in a way that would force Japan to redirect its forces away from Ryukyu. How would these operations complicate Japan–Russia relations? Such an expansion would also be substantial and would essentially dominate the region with regard to Russia and NK, especially with six gens and the H-20 factored in.

Then there are questions about whether the PLAN will participate in the Sea of Japan and whether this would involve Haishenwai (would the Tsushima Strait be considered untraversable during the conflict). Unlike in the Ukraine war where China's direct involvement is difficult, Russia would be much more likely to be directly dragged into this conflict.

So in some sense, the Ukraine War has done us a factor. But please Wang Yi and Zhang Youxia, keep those 战略互信 Strategic Mutual Trust coming.

vincent said:

Maybe, but the Singapore PM has made it clear he'll stand with the US in the Chinese Civil War Phase II. PLA needs to plan accordingly

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Last time there was a big war, UK said they would definitely defend Singapore
It went poorly