PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

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AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
KFX said:
Another big challlenge for the PLA is that it's primary mission is keeping the CCP in power - not foreign conquest.
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That is not correct.

There is a reason that the PAP exists. They were previously the internal security units of the PLA.

The whole point of this separation was so that:

1. The PAP has its primary mission as internal security, with a secondary military mission
2. The PLA has its the primary mission as military, with a secondary internal security mission

This division is supported more recently by primary sources asserting that Xi Jinping is laser focused on:
a) The 2027 target to have the capability to invade and conquer Taiwan
b) ruthless decision making based on what he believes is in China's national interest

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"A person with enormous emotional stability who does not allow his personal misfortunes or sufferings affect his judgment. In other words, he is impressive". - Lee Kuan Yew

“I’ve never encountered anyone as cold blooded in their calculations of national or personal interest as Xi Jinping,” said Ryan Hass, former China director with the National Security Council during the administration of US President Joe Biden.


KFX said:
Despite the big parades and all the nice kit we see on this excellent forum, the PLA is optimised to be loyal to the CCP, with combat as a secondary consideration. And regarding Taiwan, even assuming the PLA can, in a contengincy, invade it, what happens later? The CCP would be looking at a big insurgency because the majority of Taiwanese won't relish CCP rule. Yes, China has tons of good hardware, but does Xi trust his PLA guys to get the job done? Sure, he'll trust them to put down internal dissent. But can they be effective in a dynamic combat environment where somebody is shooting back? He certainly seems to doubt it!
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Taiwan is an island, and can be successfully cut off from outside resupply.

During a blockade, I expect China would be happy to flood Taiwan with ships carrying food aid, and do this very publicly. It's not like they're is trying to exterminate or genocide the Taiwanese, like we see with the Palestinians in Gaza. As far as I'm aware, Xi Jinping's sister (and presumably her family) are also still living in Taiwan.

As for an occupation, the counterinsurgency troop ratio implies a minimum of 500K troops. China does have enough PAP and PLA personnel for at least double this level. But this assumes a full-scale counterinsurgency, which is unlikely given that:

1. Taiwan is cutoff from external resupply
2. About 10% of the Taiwanese population is in favour of reunification
3. One of the two major political parties is reconciled to the idea, if it has to happen
4. It will likely be a very light touch model similar to Hong Kong
5. Modern societies (which includes Taiwan) are inherently surveillance societies

This is just a Taiwan land conflict.

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In a wider Air and Naval conflict, it really is a war of machines rather than of people.

The most critical human factor are individual pilots in an aircraft, but as the USAF Academy notes, Chinese pilots receive twice as many flight hours as American pilots these days.

In many cases in the Air Force and Navy, the only difference between peacetime and wartime is literally a button press.

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Prior to Patchwork's departure, he noted that Chinese battle networking capability was significantly better than the US military network, and wouldn't catchup until JADC2
 
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K

kkwan18

New Member
Registered Member
KFX said:
Another big challlenge for the PLA is that it's primary mission is keeping the CCP in power - not foreign conquest. Despite the big parades and all the nice kit we see on this excellent forum, the PLA is optimised to be loyal to the CCP, with combat as a secondary consideration. And regarding Taiwan, even assuming the PLA can, in a contengincy, invade it, what happens later? The CCP would be looking at a big insurgency because the majority of Taiwanese won't relish CCP rule. Yes, China has tons of good hardware, but does Xi trust his PLA guys to get the job done? Sure, he'll trust them to put down internal dissent. But can they be effective in a dynamic combat environment where somebody is shooting back? He certainly seems to doubt it!
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Its the PLA that wanted to finished this civil war more then Xi.
 
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