PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

00CuriousObserver

00CuriousObserver

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A comment by 约克 on the J-16 low flyby spotted recently:

双月湾是南战某旅的固定演训地，这里海岸线与某岛的一段重要海岸线类似，如果进行大型两栖巡游，则可能需要执行近距离战场遮断任务，所以每年都要在这里面反复练习——以上均为本人胡说八道，请自觉抵制！

[二哈]
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Shuangyue Bay is a regular training site for a certain brigade of the Southern Theater Command. The coastline here resembles a crucial stretch of coastline on a certain island. If a large-scale amphibious patrol were to take place, it might require executing close-range battlefield interdiction missions. Therefore, repeated drills are conducted here every year — everything above is complete nonsense, please consciously reject and resist it!
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(The last part is for OPSEC reasons)

The interesting part is that the PLA can find geography similar to Taiwan's along its vast coastline and conduct realistic training scenarios.
 
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hkvaryag

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AndrewJ said:
Many Taiwanese think China under CCP is a paper tiger. What CCP is doing to Taiwan is all for propaganda. Paper tiger is someone who is very weak but still looks strong via propaganda. That's why China says a thousand times it wants to take Taiwan by force, but never do it, only drills & exercises & propaganda. :rolleyes:

Many westerners also have similar opinions. China is weak. China is about to collapse due to serious economy issues. Communism can't innovate because of censorship. China's economy is so problematic that 1/4 of college students can't find jobs. These are all because Xi's trying to recover Mao's Communism. With a weak economy & shaking country, China is not able to defeat Taiwan backed by liberal strong Western World. So all they can do is bluff and bluster, praying Taiwan to surrender without fighting. A country haven't been in a war for 40 years don't have balls to fight, also is not capable of fighting.
Sth like Deepseek are pure propaganda, they're not real, they're copyed from western things. Even if they're real, they're the last liberal power that'll finally defeat CCP's communism from inside. You can tell that from deepseek's censorship to see the divergence between the two.

What China need is to easily defeat Taiwan (and also Western power remains in Indo-Pacific if necessary) in a real war. By then, all information cocoons are gone. :p
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Many Taiwanese think China under CCP is a paper tiger.>>>>>>>>>They are keen on racism and favour Japs supremacy. Just barbarians of ancient world..............
 
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bsdnf

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At the same time, ROCA is an army that only meets 70% of personnel requirements even in peacetime and has even begun to consider conscripting women. The DPP's "Blue Bird" supporters are spreading green terror in society, the “Black Bear academy” trying to emulate the Ukrainian paramilitary organization, but just play some airsoft cqb instead of joining the military. Because they know that they actually have no chance of winning
 
siegecrossbow

siegecrossbow

General
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bsdnf said:
At the same time, ROCA is an army that only meets 70% of personnel requirements even in peacetime and has even begun to consider conscripting women. The DPP's "Blue Bird" supporters are spreading green terror in society, the “Black Bear academy” trying to emulate the Ukrainian paramilitary organization, but just play some airsoft cqb instead of joining the military. Because they know that they actually have no chance of winning
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They never ever count on themselves. They always banked on the U.S. and Japan helping them out, which explains the current situation.
 
T

tokenanalyst

Brigadier
Registered Member
AndrewJ said:
Many Taiwanese think China under CCP is a paper tiger. What CCP is doing to Taiwan is all for propaganda. Paper tiger is someone who is very weak but still looks strong via propaganda. That's why China says a thousand times it wants to take Taiwan by force, but never do it, only drills & exercises & propaganda. :rolleyes:

Many westerners also have similar opinions. China is weak. China is about to collapse due to serious economy issues. Communism can't innovate because of censorship. China's economy is so problematic that 1/4 of college students can't find jobs. These are all because Xi's trying to recover Mao's Communism. With a weak economy & shaking country, China is not able to defeat Taiwan backed by liberal strong Western World. So all they can do is bluff and bluster, praying Taiwan to surrender without fighting. A country haven't been in a war for 40 years don't have balls to fight, also is not capable of fighting.
Sth like Deepseek are pure propaganda, they're not real, they're copyed from western things. Even if they're real, they're the last liberal power that'll finally defeat CCP's communism from inside. You can tell that from deepseek's censorship to see the divergence between the two.

What China need is to easily defeat Taiwan (and also Western power remains in Indo-Pacific if necessary) in a real war. By then, all information cocoons are gone. :p
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Surrender without fighting would no be a bad option, at least they will have their elections, economy and semiconductor industry. A dragged grinding war will destroy everything in Taiwan, there will be nothing left in that island. That island will go from having a decent economy to absolute misery with no recovery. The worst part is as the semiconductor industry and talent move outside, that island will lose its value, even now is important but not existencial, so at the end will be abandoned and won't be pretty if the mainland grind themselves to victory.
 
S

supersnoop

Major
Registered Member
siegecrossbow said:
They never ever count on themselves. They always banked on the U.S. and Japan helping them out, which explains the current situation.
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They are just jokes.
People should not respect them. Media is making a big mistake by writing these glowing articles about Kuma and Black Bear.
They are cosplayers.
They are afraid they can't take a sh*t for a few days because of eating MREs for a week.
Japanese and Americans aren't going to fight your war for you.
 
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bsdnf

Junior Member
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00CuriousObserver said:
A RORO ferry has docked with the barges. Thanks to our old friend Shugart

Ktqopsk.jpeg


Another thing to note here is that the bridge can rotate to an extent.
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10,000-ton passenger ferry "chang le gong zhu" under COSCO Shipping. Transformed from a cargo ro-ro ship, It has a displacement of about 12,000 tons and can carry up to 499 passengers. The ship is 129 meters long, 22.5 meters wide, and has a maximum speed of 16.5 knots. It is equipped with a through-type vehicle deck and bow and stern ramp doors, and a small ramp door on the side to facilitate loading and unloading of vehicles at the dock. There is a helicopter landing platform on the top (winch only)

The ship was previously mainly used as a cruise ship to travel between Sanya, Hainan and the Xisha Islands. It can also be used to transfer to a hard-shell inflatable assault boat to experience beaching on Quanfu Island in the Xisha Islands.

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bsdnf

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Some military bloggers also believe that the first batches of users of barges may not be super-large BYD ro-ro ships that can transport 7,000-10,000 cars, as that would be too risky and too slow to unload. Instead, medium-sized ro-ro ships like this one, that can transport half a heavy battalion or a light infantry battalion to quickly land and secure the landing zone.
 
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