I've written a list to give you guys an idea of what some of the "dark green" DPP supporters think, and frankly what a good portion of the Taiwanese population thinks. By no means is this exhaustive and only some points apply to some poeple, but they definitely have a different perspective to say the least.
They genuinely believe the CCP will not attempt armored reunification (AR)
• The AR talks are just internal propaganda meant to maintaining power (
). When we see military exercises around Taiwan, they see "CCP is wasting money on propaganda to appease pinkies again".
• AR is extremely risky, and the CCP would never risk their rule for such an uncertain outcome
• Many CCP leaders have relatives and interests overseas, making them unlikely to take actions that could harm those connections.
• "China hasn't attempted AR for over 70 years and China isn't going to start now."
They genuinely believe the PLA is trash
• With all the corruption scandals and personnel changes, they believe the PLA is corrupt to the core and incapable of fighting
• All the big-ticket items are for graft and prestige
• They've been consistently
—whether true or not—of PLA equipment failures, reinforcing the belief that PLA hardware is fundamentally shitty. They genuinely view PLA aircraft, missiles, radars, and other systems as non-threats, much like how some people dismiss Indian military equipment.
• The PLA hasn’t fought a war in decades and lacks real combat experience. While the U.S. hasn’t faced a peer adversary either, they don’t fully buy this comparison because the U.S. has been consistently engaged in military operations, which they see as providing battle-tested experience
They genuinely believe their "friends" will help them
• They’ll compare the U.S. and Chinese militaries, counting the number of carriers, destroyers, aircraft, etc., and noting U.S. technological advantages like advanced engines and nuclear-powered carriers. Based on this, they’ll conclude that China can’t compete with the U.S. militarily (it’s all about perception).
• The "freedom-loving, democracy-valuing countries"—Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, Europe, and others—will "gang up" against China
• Sanctions, sanctions, sanctions. They’re convinced that China’s economy would be in ruins if it ever attempted AR
They genuinely believe they can fend off the PLA—at least long enough
• The Taiwan Strait is too formidable of a barrier, and amphibious landing is too difficult of a task
• With modern surveillance technologies, any preparations for AR would be detected well in advance, giving them ample time to prepare an effective defense
• Their anti-ship missiles will sink all the transport fleets
It’s funny because, from what I’ve observed, they’re more worried about the “fifth column” than the PLA’s hard power. Their mindset is, “The CCP can’t defeat us, but those among us can (so vote DPP!).”
My opinion is that nothing China does will pop this bubble, except AR itself. Keep in mind it's all about perception. Regardless how much you argue, they'll only believe it when they see it. (I have a theory that the DPP pursuing a strategy of betting on the assumption that AR won’t happen. I’ve happily coined it the “台赌论”. But I’ll save this for later)