PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

oseaidjubzac

New Member
Registered Member
Why doesn't TW invest in HALE drones for this kind of work? You'd think that there wouldn't be that many flight hours left in their F-16Vs (which, as far as I know, are refurb F-16A/Bs).
The speed and climb rate of an interceptor need to be greater than those of the intercepted aircraft. Given the small size of Taiwan, it's possible that by the time Taiwan's HALE drones have climbed to the appropriate altitude and distance, the PLA's HALE drones are already on their way back. Using jet fighters to intercept HALE drones is not uncommon; the Japan Self-Defense Forces also use F-15s to intercept the PLA's TB-001.
 

zhangjim

Junior Member
Registered Member
Decent showing by the PLA today.
Agree. I don't see any war happening anytime this coming decades actually. The only way China will launch an invasion of Taiwan or start a war is if Taiwan declares independence. Short of that, I don't think the CCP will risk any sort of confrontation with all the associated economic, financial. Geopolitical and military risks that involves. Chinese leadership is generally risk averse. So the status quo will carry on except Taiwan acts foolish and declares independence

It's hard for you to judge what kind of mentality these people have.
If you follow the comments of their netizens, you will feel that they are truly full of confidence. Their attitude was very contemptuous, completely fearless.
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——This person seems to be very diligent in collecting PLA intelligence based on television information. However, the comment section doesn't look as interesting anymore.
They are quite proud of their achievements in disrupting public opinion with their internet army. They believe that their enemies are helpless against them.
screenshot-1742274264497.png
In short, these people will treat all military exercises as a bluff and intimidation, unless you really throw bombs at them from a plane. Perhaps this is because they believe that only government officials will receive severe punishment, or they believe that war will not happen in the future.
 

00CuriousObserver

Junior Member
Registered Member
I've written a list to give you guys an idea of what some of the "dark green" DPP supporters think, and frankly what a good portion of the Taiwanese population thinks. By no means is this exhaustive and only some points apply to some poeple, but they definitely have a different perspective to say the least.

They genuinely believe the CCP will not attempt armored reunification (AR)
• The AR talks are just internal propaganda meant to maintaining power (
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). When we see military exercises around Taiwan, they see "CCP is wasting money on propaganda to appease pinkies again".
• AR is extremely risky, and the CCP would never risk their rule for such an uncertain outcome
• Many CCP leaders have relatives and interests overseas, making them unlikely to take actions that could harm those connections.
• "China hasn't attempted AR for over 70 years and China isn't going to start now."

They genuinely believe the PLA is trash
• With all the corruption scandals and personnel changes, they believe the PLA is corrupt to the core and incapable of fighting
• All the big-ticket items are for graft and prestige
• They've been consistently
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—whether true or not—of PLA equipment failures, reinforcing the belief that PLA hardware is fundamentally shitty. They genuinely view PLA aircraft, missiles, radars, and other systems as non-threats, much like how some people dismiss Indian military equipment.
• The PLA hasn’t fought a war in decades and lacks real combat experience. While the U.S. hasn’t faced a peer adversary either, they don’t fully buy this comparison because the U.S. has been consistently engaged in military operations, which they see as providing battle-tested experience

They genuinely believe their "friends" will help them
• They’ll compare the U.S. and Chinese militaries, counting the number of carriers, destroyers, aircraft, etc., and noting U.S. technological advantages like advanced engines and nuclear-powered carriers. Based on this, they’ll conclude that China can’t compete with the U.S. militarily (it’s all about perception).
• The "freedom-loving, democracy-valuing countries"—Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, Europe, and others—will "gang up" against China
• Sanctions, sanctions, sanctions. They’re convinced that China’s economy would be in ruins if it ever attempted AR

They genuinely believe they can fend off the PLA—at least long enough
• The Taiwan Strait is too formidable of a barrier, and amphibious landing is too difficult of a task
• With modern surveillance technologies, any preparations for AR would be detected well in advance, giving them ample time to prepare an effective defense
• Their anti-ship missiles will sink all the transport fleets

It’s funny because, from what I’ve observed, they’re more worried about the “fifth column” than the PLA’s hard power. Their mindset is, “The CCP can’t defeat us, but those among us can (so vote DPP!).”

My opinion is that nothing China does will pop this bubble, except AR itself. Keep in mind it's all about perception. Regardless how much you argue, they'll only believe it when they see it. (I have a theory that the DPP pursuing a strategy of betting on the assumption that AR won’t happen. I’ve happily coined it the “台赌论”. But I’ll save this for later)

I've written a list before on the mindset they have. Tbh, these are also the opinion of some Chinese. They’re so insanely convinced that all the CCP does is stay in power—the CCP wouldn’t accept even a 1% risk to their rule, and AR is way too risky
 

supersnoop

Major
Registered Member
The CCP wouldn’t accept even a 1% risk to their rule, and AR is way too risky
Hahaha, they’ve arguably already made 10 riskier moves than AR already.
1. Economic reforms. This lead to the Tiananmen protests.
2. Sino-Soviet split, cutting off from a major trading partner and source of technology and created a nuclear enemy neighbor.
3. Cultural Revolution
4. Viet war
5. Playing hardball with UK over HK
6. Asian Financial Crisis (not a move, but a risk)
Etc.
 

Michael90

Junior Member
Registered Member
I've written a list before on the mindset they have. Tbh, these are also the opinion of some Chinese. They’re so insanely convinced that all the CCP does is stay in power—the CCP wouldn’t accept even a 1% risk to their rule, and AR is way too risky
Its not entirely wrong though. All ruling political partied around the world actually act the same way. Tey onvioumy prioritise their stay in power first other things comes secondary. I think its normal , noting wrong there. Afterall, politicl party are just human organisations fromed formed for mutual/communal interest. As such they are not everlasting neite is it q OD given right for them to rule. So they know they are all temporary rulers and a times will come anither political party or organisation will evetually replace them. So the issue is to obviously try and maintain power ggor as long as possible. This applies to evrry single ruling party on earth, China is no exception. Afterall, political/ruling parties come and go but only the country and land always remains.
So there is also a truth to that. CCP will onvioulsy keep all this in mind. They wouldnt want to risk a full bloody war and all the risks that entails.for the country and partty if they can afford to. In fact CCP would love for the status quo to remain the same for as long as possible, i.e no independence declaration or provocations by Taiwan, and Taiwan can carry on being/acting as a quasi independent country with self rule, its own military and everything else every normal country does but unofficially like they have been doing for over half a century. Just let things the way they are, bebefits both sides actually and they all can keep growing together
 

Gloire_bb

Captain
Registered Member
Why doesn't TW invest in HALE drones for this kind of work? You'd think that there wouldn't be that many flight hours left in their F-16Vs (which, as far as I know, are refurb F-16A/Bs).
This is a rather tricky job, requiring human presense on spot. For decision making, for authority (human officer as a representative in charge; drone is property), and, ultimately, for responsibility.
Also, this is a kind of job that at least sometimes results in ACMs(which, also sometimes, turn into an actual dogfight with weapon use).
 

Wrought

Junior Member
Registered Member
Its not entirely wrong though. All ruling political partied around the world actually act the same way. Tey onvioumy prioritise their stay in power first other things comes secondary. I think its normal , noting wrong there. Afterall, politicl party are just human organisations fromed formed for mutual/communal interest. As such they are not everlasting neite is it q OD given right for them to rule. So they know they are all temporary rulers and a times will come anither political party or organisation will evetually replace them. So the issue is to obviously try and maintain power ggor as long as possible. This applies to evrry single ruling party on earth, China is no exception. Afterall, political/ruling parties come and go but only the country and land always remains.
So there is also a truth to that. CCP will onvioulsy keep all this in mind. They wouldnt want to risk a full bloody war and all the risks that entails.for the country and partty if they can afford to. In fact CCP would love for the status quo to remain the same for as long as possible, i.e no independence declaration or provocations by Taiwan, and Taiwan can carry on being/acting as a quasi independent country with self rule, its own military and everything else every normal country does but unofficially like they have been doing for over half a century. Just let things the way they are, bebefits both sides actually and they all can keep growing together

Are you ok bro? Spellcheck is your friend.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
Its not entirely wrong though. All ruling political partied around the world actually act the same way. Tey onvioumy prioritise their stay in power first other things comes secondary. I think its normal , noting wrong there. Afterall, politicl party are just human organisations fromed formed for mutual/communal interest. As such they are not everlasting neite is it q OD given right for them to rule. So they know they are all temporary rulers and a times will come anither political party or organisation will evetually replace them. So the issue is to obviously try and maintain power ggor as long as possible. This applies to evrry single ruling party on earth, China is no exception. Afterall, political/ruling parties come and go but only the country and land always remains.
So there is also a truth to that. CCP will onvioulsy keep all this in mind. They wouldnt want to risk a full bloody war and all the risks that entails.for the country and partty if they can afford to. In fact CCP would love for the status quo to remain the same for as long as possible, i.e no independence declaration or provocations by Taiwan, and Taiwan can carry on being/acting as a quasi independent country with self rule, its own military and everything else every normal country does but unofficially like they have been doing for over half a century. Just let things the way they are, bebefits both sides actually and they all can keep growing together
that's where you're wrong. I can't understand you very well but I think I can get the general message of what you are attempting to say: that this is true.

Chinese governments in the past have repeatedly fought wars solely out of spite even when it was ruinous to do so.

Ming could've left Mongolia alone after taking back Beijing.

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How about after breaking their backs at Buir Lake (deep inside what was then Mongolia) and capturing the entire Northern Yuan royal family.

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Why didn't they give up, didn't they know it was ruinously expensive?

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Did they stop even after the political leaders themselves were under threat?

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