PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

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supersnoop

Major
Registered Member
RoastGooseHKer said:
I did talk to some greenies back when I was in college. They seemed to believe that regardless how powerful the PLA becomes, the Mainland would never dare to attack Taiwan given the PRC’s numerous internal problems ranging form structural economic problems to various forms of social divides. They were also pretty confident about US intervention. But up till this day, I still don’t quite understand such confidence in part with those of the populist Hindus in India.
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You can see that is just stupid. Mainland doesn’t attack because in the end it knows it holds the best cards. It was just like HK, the UK had no chance in stopping the PLA from marching in for decades. The declassified cables show that. However, it is well known now the kind of levers Premier Zhou was pulling, even basic things like food and fresh water.

Imagine if China banned Taiwan origin semiconductors from the mainland. Their economy would be broken. This Lai idiot was still begging for mainland tourists earlier this year

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Biscuits said:
They don't live in reality and don't have the advance planning to realize they're not bomb proof. The thought process goes something like "China isn't democratic therefore it can never win against a democracy, plus we have the god US on our side".

It's peak orc behavior where the bravery is endless because they have single minded faith in the dark lord until the very moment they realize they're going to get splatted. At which point it's obviously too late to turn around.

These "people" had their brains stewed in the sewage of Americanism and imperial Japan revanchism, they are consumed with single minded determination to attack China at any cost, completely headless of danger.

As someone else said, the majority of them were 100% sure Kamala would win (and as usual, they want her win because it's more likely she will militarily attack China, because these orcs don't have a life outside constantly being aggressive and coveting Chinese territory), which tells you something about what universe they live in.
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This is almost literally the Boxer Rebellion thinking.

20 years ago, the best fighter in ROCAF (F-16) could match the best PLAAF fighter (J-11A/Su-27) 1:1. Today they are outmatched both technologically and quantifiably by the 3rd line fighter like 4:1 (J-10 vs. F-16). Getting into the Navy and other forces is not even fair. These are the hard numbers and facts.
 
B

bsdnf

Junior Member
Registered Member
RoastGooseHKer said:
I did talk to some greenies back when I was in college. They seemed to believe that regardless how powerful the PLA becomes, the Mainland would never dare to attack Taiwan given the PRC’s numerous internal problems ranging form structural economic problems to various forms of social divides. They were also pretty confident about US intervention. But up till this day, I still don’t quite understand such confidence in part with those of the populist Hindus in India.
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According to the theory of realist international relations, a war between hegemon and challenger happened because one side senses that it is about to decline, so it must defeat its opponent while its power is still at its peak. Therefore, the decision-makers did not start a war because they thought that the strength was still rising and there would be better ways to achieve the goal with less losses in the future.
If they really did not want the war to break out, they should hope that China would not reach that turning point.
 
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tygyg1111

tygyg1111

Captain
Registered Member
tamsen_ikard said:
I don't think China is invading Taiwan until 2040s when China becomes double US nominal GDP and likely 3-4 times in PPP GDP.
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I used to think China would need until 2030 to get to 2015 era comprehensive military power, and until 2040 to start knocking over key metrics of US power like software apps, movies, and consumer technology. Needless to say, I have stopped being surprised at all the 'surprises' the last 10 years has offered
 
FairAndUnbiased

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
tamsen_ikard said:
I don't think China is invading Taiwan until 2040s when China becomes double US nominal GDP and likely 3-4 times in PPP GDP.
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I don't think nominal GDP will be possible to surpass until the war is won, actually. Based on historical data for the last 5 years, US GDP expanded 30%. There is no physical production that expanded 30%.

But there's a small inconvenience - you can't eat or shoot dollars.
 
T

tamsen_ikard

Junior Member
Registered Member
FairAndUnbiased said:
I don't think nominal GDP will be possible to surpass until the war is won, actually. When they can print dollars at will and force their vassals to use it to keep up exchange rates and pump it into assets to limit inflation, how do you stop it? The only way is to get the printing to stop, the vassals to stop, or the asset buying to stop, not just in your country, but globally. The only way to do that is for faith in the currency to erode. And what is that faith based on?

However there's a small inconvenience - you can't eat or shoot dollars.
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No one is a vassal of US. Maybe Latin America, that's it. Rich countries like Europe and Japan willingly submit themselves to US due to white supremacist thinking. Just look at Europe. All it took from Trump was a few statements and Europeans are already taking action to stop US influence. They care about the White Empire project, not US itself.

Most of the buyers of US dollars these days are countries in the middle east and other global south countries. And they do so, to defend their own currencies against devaluation, not out of any interest to invest in US.

The moment a recession happens in US, and the bubble pops, most of the foreign money will be moved out. This is what investors do. Thye care about their investments, not what US wants.
 
FairAndUnbiased

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
tamsen_ikard said:
No one is a vassal of US. Maybe Latin America, that's it. Rich countries like Europe and Japan willingly submit themselves to US due to white supremacist thinking. Just look at Europe. All it took from Trump was a few statements and Europeans are already taking action to stop US influence. They care about the White Empire project, not US itself.
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You must be confused. Here's a transcript of NATO SecGen Mark Rutte himself cowering as Trump threatened Denmark.

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In case you have a problem with reading, here's the relevant quotes:

The president’s comments came during a meeting in the White House with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte.

A reporter asked Trump, “What is your vision for the potential annexation of Greenland.”

“Yeah, well, I think it’ll happen,” Trump replied.

The president then turned to Rutte and said “we’ll be talking to you,” adding, “it’s really an appropriate question.”

Rutte quickly said, “When it comes to Greneland, yes or no joining the U.S., I would leave that outside for me this discussion, because I don’t want to direct NATO in that.”

“Yeah, well, I think it’ll happen,” Trump replied.

The president then turned to Rutte and said “we’ll be talking to you,” Rutte quickly said, “When it comes to Greneland, yes or no joining the U.S., I would leave that outside for me this discussion, because I don’t want to direct NATO in that.”
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EU cannot even verbally defend itself from US aggression.
tamsen_ikard said:
Most of the buyers of US dollars these days are countries in the middle east and other global south countries. And they do so, to defend their own currencies against devaluation, not out of any interest to invest in US.

The moment a recession happens in US, and the bubble pops, most of the foreign money will be moved out. This is what investors do. Thye care about their investments, not what US wants.
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US can freeze any USD asset it wants other than cash. USD transaction ledgers are ultimately stored in Fed computers.
 
B

Biscuits

Colonel
Registered Member
FairAndUnbiased said:
I don't think nominal GDP will be possible to surpass until the war is won, actually. Based on historical data for the last 5 years, US GDP expanded 30%. There is no physical production that expanded 30%.

But there's a small inconvenience - you can't eat or shoot dollars.
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China's "nominal" gdp is in RMB while US' is in USD... And right now China has a higher gdp, has had it for awhile and there's no indication it will reverse. This is without counting gdp on Taiwan btw. So I don't really get you, during the last years, China has also grown faster than US. Both in normal gdp and "nominally" in terms of RMB. US' growth as you even see now on their stock market has obviously just been a bubble, gdp relies majorly on self reporting.

Or you mean surpass NATO? That's the next goal but like you said, it's not a great indicator on economic power.

The Ukraine war was a challenge on the thesis put out by US that NATO is a larger economy than China. In this relatively contained environment, US and EU's abilities to adapt a portion of their on paper gdp together larger than China's economy was tested. To see how well their gdp correlate with real life economic performance. And now we know that they're weaker, we know an US invasion of Taiwan today is not the S level threat it was during the early Jiang administration. We know EU cannot effectively threaten China either, because Russia is sufficient to tie them down.
 
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