PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

Re: PLAN Stragety in the Taiwan Strait

Military action against Taiwan will only be a last-resort action. There are other means of leverage.

For example, what would happen if China froze the assets of Taiwanese businessmen who hold accounts in the Mainland?

What would happen to any Taiwan Independence government when the Taiwanese economy collapses from China terminating its of Taiwan imports? Especially when faced with an ever more prosperous mainland?

Time is on Mainland's side because as the Mainland gets more prosperous, more Taiwanese will want to pursue opportunities on the Mainland. It's all about the economy.

China is Taiwans largest trade partner and it would be mad to try and cut that cus Taiwan economy will probably collapse

China accounted for about 30% and 15% of Taiwan's exports and imports respectively

if it comes to it China will have plenty of Type071 LPDs to call on for a amphibious assualt

Re: PLAN Stragety in the Taiwan Strait

solarz said:

Military action against Taiwan will only be a last-resort action. There are other means of leverage.

For example, what would happen if China froze the assets of Taiwanese businessmen who hold accounts in the Mainland?

What would happen to any Taiwan Independence government when the Taiwanese economy collapses from China terminating its

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of Taiwan imports? Especially when faced with an ever more prosperous mainland?

Time is on Mainland's side because as the Mainland gets more prosperous, more Taiwanese will want to pursue opportunities on the Mainland. It's all about the economy.

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Agreed! In addition, the US would not allow Taiwan to declare independence. Since the US has vowed to protect Taiwan in case of an attack and the US does not intend to get in a fight with China any time soon (not over an issue of Taiwan, anyway), the US would dissuade any attempt on the part of Taiwan to become independent. Bush Jr. did exactly that when Chen was moving toward that direction. The best option for the US is to maintain the status quo. And China, at the moment, is perfectly OK with that too. So if all the main forces and players are against Taiwan independence, I don't see how Taiwan can move to independence. If that's the case, a war in the strait is less probable, IMO.

IMO, the best option for the Mainland is to peacefully pull Taiwan into its fold. As Taiwan becomes more dependent on China economically, the idea of declaring independence becomes less attractive to Taiwan people. When China finally embraces democracy (note that I don't see this political change as an "if", but a "when"), Taiwan people will be more willing to entertain the idea of unification. I think this would be the case mainly because the biggest sticking point between Taiwan and Mainland is the authoritarian system on the Mainland.

Re: PLAN Stragety in the Taiwan Strait

solarz said:

Military action against Taiwan will only be a last-resort action. There are other means of leverage.

For example, what would happen if China froze the assets of Taiwanese businessmen who hold accounts in the Mainland?

What would happen to any Taiwan Independence government when the Taiwanese economy collapses from China terminating its

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

of Taiwan imports? Especially when faced with an ever more prosperous mainland?

Time is on Mainland's side because as the Mainland gets more prosperous, more Taiwanese will want to pursue opportunities on the Mainland. It's all about the economy.

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I can't agree with that. You're assuming that Taiwanese would sell out their independence. Why? Would Chinese sell out their independence to another country? We know the answer is "no". So why would Taiwanese be different?

Also you're ignoring the fact that countries like China benefit from imports. It couldn't just suddenly cut off Taiwanese trade, there would be a massive knock-back on the Chinese economy. It would have to do so gradually and deliberately. This wouldn't be an effective response to a declaration of independence, so it would suggest that China would only do this to bully Taiwan into unifying. That would be an incredibly dangerous game, because if Taiwan wasn't scared into changing tune it could accelerate calls there for formal independence.

Also you have to consider the ramifications on China's foreign policy, which would be very heavily damaged by this. Also, don't you think that other foreign businessmen might get scared that if their countries started to anger China the same would happen to them? Doesn't China benefit from appearing to be a good place to do business, rather than a country where you can lose everything because the central government is having a diplomatic dispute?

I think there's a general problem here in that pro-unification people believe that Taiwanese can be bought or bullied into unifying with China. Maybe if all China wants is a piece of paper saying "Taiwan is part of China" and will be happy to effectively allow Taiwan to retain all its de-facto independence, with maybe some real participation in organisations like the UN. But if China actually wants Taiwanese people to give up some of their democracy or to have direct control over things that are important to Taiwan, there's going to be a big problem. Taiwanese used to have the KMT push them around - they're not going to go back to that, nor are they going to accept a Hong Kong system where Beijing has a strong hand in deciding who runs the place and special interest groups have a disproportionate amount of voting power.

These issues are key to China's strategy in dealing with Taiwan. Even if it won a war, how many troops does it realistically think it would have to station there permanently to maintain the peace? What would the annual cost to China be? And how much of its military would it be willing to see destroyed to win the war in the first place? I honestly wonder whether Beijing has a post-war strategy, other than "we're used to getting our way - one way or another we will be obeyed".

P.S. Sorry if this is a bit off-topic, but I think it's highly relevant.

Re: PLAN Stragety in the Taiwan Strait

Mr T said:

I can't agree with that. You're assuming that Taiwanese would sell out their independence. Why? Would Chinese sell out their independence to another country? We know the answer is "no". So why would Taiwanese be different?

Also you're ignoring the fact that countries like China benefit from imports. It couldn't just suddenly cut off Taiwanese trade, there would be a massive knock-back on the Chinese economy. It would have to do so gradually and deliberately. This wouldn't be an effective response to a declaration of independence, so it would suggest that China would only do this to bully Taiwan into unifying. That would be an incredibly dangerous game, because if Taiwan wasn't scared into changing tune it could accelerate calls there for formal independence.

Also you have to consider the ramifications on China's foreign policy, which would be very heavily damaged by this. Also, don't you think that other foreign businessmen might get scared that if their countries started to anger China the same would happen to them? Doesn't China benefit from appearing to be a good place to do business, rather than a country where you can lose everything because the central government is having a diplomatic dispute?

I think there's a general problem here in that pro-unification people believe that Taiwanese can be bought or bullied into unifying with China. Maybe if all China wants is a piece of paper saying "Taiwan is part of China" and will be happy to effectively allow Taiwan to retain all its de-facto independence, with maybe some real participation in organisations like the UN. But if China actually wants Taiwanese people to give up some of their democracy or to have direct control over things that are important to Taiwan, there's going to be a big problem. Taiwanese used to have the KMT push them around - they're not going to go back to that, nor are they going to accept a Hong Kong system where Beijing has a strong hand in deciding who runs the place and special interest groups have a disproportionate amount of voting power.

These issues are key to China's strategy in dealing with Taiwan. Even if it won a war, how many troops does it realistically think it would have to station there permanently to maintain the peace? What would the annual cost to China be? And how much of its military would it be willing to see destroyed to win the war in the first place? I honestly wonder whether Beijing has a post-war strategy, other than "we're used to getting our way - one way or another we will be obeyed".

P.S. Sorry if this is a bit off-topic, but I think it's highly relevant.

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I think you're vastly over-estimating the desire for independence of the Taiwanese. If the Taiwanese had the same attitude toward independence as, say, the Palestinians, then cross-strait relations would be a very different beast altogether!

As such, I am pretty confident that very few Taiwanese, even among pan-green supporters, would be willing to give up their financial stability (nevermind risking their lives by taking up arms) for independence from Mainland China.

As for your contention that economic actions will hurt the Mainland as much as Taiwan, you should go to the link I provided and look up the actual numbers. Taiwan makes $115 billion on exports to Mainland China, or over 25% of their annual GDP. China makes $30 billion on exports to Taiwan, or less than 0.3% of their annual GDP. Taiwan also does not have any exclusive control over crucial markets. Anything Mainland China can't get from Taiwan, they can easily get from Japan or South Korea.

The USA has frozen the assets of foreign account holders plenty of times in its War on Terror, and there are still no shortage of people trying to invest in the US, so claiming that foreign businesses would be scared away by China freezing Taiwan assets in the event of a Taiwan declaration of Independence is simply absurd.

Re: PLAN Stragety in the Taiwan Strait

solarz said:

I think you're vastly over-estimating the desire for independence of the Taiwanese. If the Taiwanese had the same attitude toward independence as, say, the Palestinians, then cross-strait relations would be a very different beast altogether!

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But Taiwan is independent in the ways that affect Taiwanese people on a day to day basis. This is my point, unification in any more than a technical/face-saving sense requires China to get Taiwan to give up sovereignty. This is one reason why Taiwanese at the moment are relaxed, because they think they're already where they want to be, bar some constitutional hang-overs from when the KMT occupied the island.

Palestinians, on the other hand, have no real independence. They barely have functioning government, little in the way of an economy, public services, a military, etc. They can't even stop Israel building on the West Bank. So, yeah, don't you think Palestinians would be more angry than Taiwanese right now?

As for your contention that economic actions will hurt the Mainland as much as Taiwan.... Anything Mainland China can't get from Taiwan, they can easily get from Japan or South Korea.

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I didn't say China would be hurt as much, I said that China would be hurt as well. Is it worth blowing your leg off in order to kill someone else?

I also said that you can't just slam sanctions down on a close trading partner if you want to avoid the fallout. You'd have to bring it in gradually, which means you can't use it as an instant response. This suggests China acting deliberately and proactively, such as because it's not getting its way through regular negotiations.

The USA has frozen the assets of foreign account holders plenty of times in its War on Terror, and there are still no shortage of people trying to invest in the US, so claiming that foreign businesses would be scared away by China freezing Taiwan assets in the event of a Taiwan declaration of Independence is simply absurd.

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1. Are you trying to tell me that the world will see Taiwanese independence in the same way it sees international terrorism? Really?

2. The USA has not frozen the bank accounts of all people who happen to come from a country where they have been terrorists. Freezing the bank accounts of all Taiwanese businessmen in China because of Taiwanese independence would be like freezing the bank accounts of all Pakistanis in the US because of a terrorist attack.

Re: PLAN Stragety in the Taiwan Strait

But Taiwan is independent in the ways that affect Taiwanese people on a day to day basis. This is my point, unification in any more than a technical/face-saving sense requires China to get Taiwan to give up sovereignty. This is one reason why Taiwanese at the moment are relaxed, because they think they're already where they want to be, bar some constitutional hang-overs from when the KMT occupied the island.

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But the present status quo is not going to last forever. China let Taiwam maintain her quasi independent status because it is beneficial to China's interest

In effect Taiwan become the conduit of modern management, marketing and high tech,capital into mainland. Once China strong enough and advanced enough, she doesn't need Taiwan anymore . At some time in future there will be negotiation for reunification of the country . Taiwan cannot postpone it indefinitely!

Palestinians, on the other hand, have no real independence. They barely have functioning government, little in the way of an economy, public services, a military, etc. They can't even stop Israel building on the West Bank. So, yeah, don't you think Palestinians would be more angry than Taiwanese right now?

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Well you can say the same thing about Hongkong or Macau. They both can exists independently and have excellent economy but are they independent? No !

I didn't say China would be hurt as much, I said that China would be hurt as well. Is it worth blowing your leg off in order to kill someone else?

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Anything worth getting will involve some sacrifice. Over the millenia the Chinese Nation have been divided but the country always end up reunited. So Taiwan or the present situation is not special case

I also said that you can't just slam sanctions down on a close trading partner if you want to avoid the fallout. You'd have to bring it in gradually, which means you can't use it as an instant response. This suggests China acting deliberately and proactively, such as because it's not getting its way through regular negotiations

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.

Fall out maybe but it worth the price at the end


1. Are you trying to tell me that the world will see Taiwanese independence in the same way it sees international terrorism? Really?

2. The USA has not frozen the bank accounts of all people who happen to come from a country where they have been terrorists. Freezing the bank accounts of all Taiwanese businessmen in China because of Taiwanese independence would be like freezing the bank accounts of all Pakistanis in the US because of a terrorist attack.[/QUOTE]

Re: PLAN Stragety in the Taiwan Strait

Mr T said:

But Taiwan is independent in the ways that affect Taiwanese people on a day to day basis. This is my point, unification in any more than a technical/face-saving sense requires China to get Taiwan to give up sovereignty. This is one reason why Taiwanese at the moment are relaxed, because they think they're already where they want to be, bar some constitutional hang-overs from when the KMT occupied the island.

Palestinians, on the other hand, have no real independence. They barely have functioning government, little in the way of an economy, public services, a military, etc. They can't even stop Israel building on the West Bank. So, yeah, don't you think Palestinians would be more angry than Taiwanese right now?

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You are trying to mislead the issue. It is not the Mainland that is going to force a showdown. The scenario we are describing is based on the assumption that Taiwan declares independence. There is nothing in Taiwanese society and political climate that indicates Taiwanese are willing to sacrifice their economy and/or lives for a largely symbolic gesture.

I didn't say China would be hurt as much, I said that China would be hurt as well. Is it worth blowing your leg off in order to kill someone else?

I also said that you can't just slam sanctions down on a close trading partner if you want to avoid the fallout. You'd have to bring it in gradually, which means you can't use it as an instant response. This suggests China acting deliberately and proactively, such as because it's not getting its way through regular negotiations.

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It would be more like bruising Mainland China's knuckles in order to deliver a knock-out punch to Taiwan. It also wouldn't take long for Chinese businesses to switch to Japanese and South Korean suppliers instead. China's central authority means most commands get carried out very quickly.

1. Are you trying to tell me that the world will see Taiwanese independence in the same way it sees international terrorism? Really?

2. The USA has not frozen the bank accounts of all people who happen to come from a country where they have been terrorists. Freezing the bank accounts of all Taiwanese businessmen in China because of Taiwanese independence would be like freezing the bank accounts of all Pakistanis in the US because of a terrorist attack.

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Irrelevant. Businesses are concerned about risks, not politics. They would only be put off if a government was unpredictable in its treatment of foreign assets. Taking actions against Taiwanese assets in the event of a Taiwan declaration of independence is a very predictable move. Not even the Taiwanese themselves would be surprised by it. In fact, it shows you the attitude of upper-class Taiwanese toward re-unification/independence when so many of them are willing to invest a whole lot of cash in Mainland: they are not worried about this kind of risk. In other words, they think it's very unlikely that Taiwan will shoot itself in the foot by provoking the Mainland.

Re: PLAN Stragety in the Taiwan Strait

Hendrik_2000 said:

But the present status quo is not going to last forever. China let Taiwam maintain her quasi independent status because it is beneficial to China's interest

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So that I can understand your views, in your opinion why isn't the status quo going to last forever and how is it inevitably going to change?