PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

The status quo cannot last forever, because Chinese economic and military power will overwhelm that of Taiwan's. Imagine in the not too distant future, 4-5 Chinese CBGs will be prowling in the west Pacific ocean, off Taiwan's east coast. By then how many Taiwanese will still be thinking about independence? Not too many, assuming most of them are rational.

supercat said:

The status quo cannot last forever, because Chinese economic and military power will overwhelm that of Taiwan's. Imagine in the not too distant future, 4-5 Chinese CBGs will be prowling in the west Pacific ocean, off Taiwan's east coast. By then how many Taiwanese will still be thinking about independence? Not too many, assuming most of them are rational.

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Your argument falls back on itself, which I think is what Mr T wants to emphasize. There hasn't been any motivation to declare independence in the past, and in the future when the PRC military is overwhelmingly powerful, there would be even less motivation to declare independence. Hence, the status quo is preserved, where ROC rules itself but doesn't declare independence. It seems to work out just fine for both. ROC can rule itself and PRC doesn't get humiliated and forced to start a war that would surely not be benificial to their economies.

EDIT: You could say that influx of mainland capital and trade would lead to a de facto domination of ROC by the PRC, but if there's one thing the EU has taught us it's that economic integration in then end is no substitute for political integration.

Maggern said:

Your argument falls back on itself, which I think is what Mr T wants to emphasize. There hasn't been any motivation to declare independence in the past, and in the future when the PRC military is overwhelmingly powerful, there would be even less motivation to declare independence. Hence, the status quo is preserved, where ROC rules itself but doesn't declare independence. It seems to work out just fine for both. ROC can rule itself and PRC doesn't get humiliated and forced to start a war that would surely not be benificial to their economies.

EDIT: You could say that influx of mainland capital and trade would lead to a de facto domination of ROC by the PRC, but if there's one thing the EU has taught us it's that economic integration in then end is no substitute for political integration.

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This is true only if the PRC will tolerate the status quo. But the view from PRC is that long-term status quo is equivalent to independence.

supercat said:

This is true only if the PRC will tolerate the status quo. But the view from PRC is that long-term status quo is equivalent to independence.

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I do have to agree with Maggern's point about economic integration without political integration is ultimately a self-defeating effect, of which the EU experience that Maggern indicated has shown all too clearly, particularly with both economic crisis and Libyan action. The US for that matter wouldn't be viable without that either (e.g. Articles of Confederation), so political integration is indeed something that would be pushed for regardless of whether the KMT or CCP was controlling the mainland.

Maggern said:

Your argument falls back on itself, which I think is what Mr T wants to emphasize. There hasn't been any motivation to declare independence in the past, and in the future when the PRC military is overwhelmingly powerful, there would be even less motivation to declare independence. Hence, the status quo is preserved, where ROC rules itself but doesn't declare independence. It seems to work out just fine for both. ROC can rule itself and PRC doesn't get humiliated and forced to start a war that would surely not be benificial to their economies.

EDIT: You could say that influx of mainland capital and trade would lead to a de facto domination of ROC by the PRC, but if there's one thing the EU has taught us it's that economic integration in then end is no substitute for political integration.

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The status quo is maintained by the superiority of the US military in the area. The US military is actually at a severe logistical disadvantage compared to the PLA in the area, and it is only with overwhelming technological superiority that they can maintain their dominance. As this technological gap narrows, the logistical disadvantage will become more apparent.

Once the US can no longer contain China's military influence near Taiwan, then Taiwan will have lost its main bargaining chip. It doesn't need to end up in war, as the Chinese military might can be used in diplomatic pushes toward reunification.

For its own security PRC will want to use naval bases and air bases on Taiwan. This to keep USN further away from the Chinese coast. In return PRC will be happy to grant Taiwan a larger measure of autonomy than Hong Kong enjoys.
Soon South Korea and Japan would do well to choose China as guarantor of their security. That would lead to the removal of the US garrisons and the costs thereof. The last is an important matter in the current financial situation. This would result in a decrease of tension in the area and for South Korea it would open the way to reunification with the North. But we might have to way for that until PLAN has several more aircraft carriers.
In short the current position of Taiwan cannot be permanent.

supercat said:

This is true only if the PRC will tolerate the status quo. But the view from PRC is that long-term status quo is equivalent to independence.

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I'd like to say no to this, but actually, when I'm thinking about it, I have to cut you some slack...

1. As it is now, as it has been for the past 60 years and as it will be at least a decade into the future, the PRC is satisfied with the status quo. For most of the time, the PRC has been the backward state, while the ROC has been the progressive, internationally integrated one. As such, the ROC felt no need to needlessly threaten Chinese national integrity by formally applying for UN membership seperately, which also made the world happy, by not making them choose between supporting a small, progressive island, and what is indisputably the future economic superpower of the world.

2. This decade, and the decades to follow, mark a difference. The ROC is no longer the progressive and internationally integrated part of Chinese terriory. Now, only a few countries maintain marginal missions there, where the US arguably is the major player, though retaining no official embassy. As such, there is less and less room for the ROC to play out sovereignty abroad. At some point, it could lead to a change in the status quo.

PS: I hope the mods forgive me for being political. At least I try to keep a civil tone

solarz said:

The status quo is maintained by the superiority of the US military in the area. The US military is actually at a severe logistical disadvantage compared to the PLA in the area, and it is only with overwhelming technological superiority that they can maintain their dominance. As this technological gap narrows, the logistical disadvantage will become more apparent.

Once the US can no longer contain China's military influence near Taiwan, then Taiwan will have lost its main bargaining chip. It doesn't need to end up in war, as the Chinese military might can be used in diplomatic pushes toward reunification.

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Doubtful. Consider how much economic development and living standards mean to today's PRC government. I don't see how a long or short destructive war would have any short-term benefit to the mainland economy. It would be devastating to the ROC, no question, and perhaps to Shanghai or other economic centra at the east coast if ROC was aggressive enough. But in the end, wouldn't one make as much economic gain as any by just letting the development take its course? AS it is now, the mainland is getting incrreasingly dominant over Taiwan. Remember, even now, and for the past decades, the ROC has been the main investor in Fujian and surrounding provinces. Why would the PRC do anything to alter this?

That only leaves the ROC. They could declare independence and shut off mainland investment and trade. But what would that mean? The world is satisfied because it can invest in both without question. They can both (PRC and ROC) invest in each other. Such an advanced economy is dependent on investment.

I won't add more, as it is simply too political. Cheers (yeah, I stole your suffix, Deino )

Maggern said:

Doubtful. Consider how much economic development and living standards mean to today's PRC government. I don't see how a long or short destructive war would have any short-term benefit to the mainland economy. It would be devastating to the ROC, no question, and perhaps to Shanghai or other economic centra at the east coast if ROC was aggressive enough. But in the end, wouldn't one make as much economic gain as any by just letting the development take its course? AS it is now, the mainland is getting incrreasingly dominant over Taiwan. Remember, even now, and for the past decades, the ROC has been the main investor in Fujian and surrounding provinces. Why would the PRC do anything to alter this?

That only leaves the ROC. They could declare independence and shut off mainland investment and trade. But what would that mean? The world is satisfied because it can invest in both without question. They can both (PRC and ROC) invest in each other. Such an advanced economy is dependent on investment.

I won't add more, as it is simply too political. Cheers (yeah, I stole your suffix, Deino )

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Like I said, military action is only last resort. However, military capabilities are also one element of a successful re-unification strategy. Both the carrot and the stick would be used to entice pro-mainland Taiwanese, and marginalize pro-independence Taiwanese. Ultimately, Mainland's game plan is to attach as many strings, whether that's cultural, economic, social, or even military, to Taiwan.

The mainland has always stated that eventual reunification is the only thing they will accept. As China becomes richer and more powerful, Taiwan will become more dependent and intergrated with China that Beijing would not need to use military means to bring the island to it's knees.

What more, as the two sides integrate and mistrust weakens, more people from Taiwan might come to accept that reunification would not actually change their life's much at all. As HK and Macau shows, people can live their lives pretty much exactly as before under Beijing's rule.
It might not happen in a few years or decades, but at some point the majority of people in Taiwan will forget all the cold war era evil communist nonsense and realise little will change with reunification.

It is the pro independence elements in Taiwan who are most likely to trigger a war, as they see this trend and they are getting ever more desperate as the door closes on their fantasy for independence.

You can see this realisation within China as the PLA has broadened their focus from almost exclusively how to take Taiwan to now long range power projection.

What pro independence advocates and their cheerleaders in the media either fail to realise or choose to ignore is the fact that Taiwanese are ethnically Chinese, the two identities and not mutually exclusive and a great many people living in Taiwan have no probelm recognising themselves as both.