PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

I too believe that peaceful reintegration is inevitable and will come in the next few decades. China doesn't need to rock that boat by being provocative with its military. Continuing the steady improvement of military capabilities that China has been on for the last few years will be enough to continually improve China's options on Taiwan.

But with that said, my main point here is that planning on an uninterrupted continuation of current trends is a bad way to predict the future. What if China's economy starts to seriously slow down? That's just one of the "curveballs" I can think of that would change the seemingly unshakable equation that's leading towards reunification.

Finn McCool said:

But with that said, my main point here is that planning on an uninterrupted continuation of current trends is a bad way to predict the future. What if China's economy starts to seriously slow down? That's just one of the "curveballs" I can think of that would change the seemingly unshakable equation that's leading towards reunification.

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Well, I think it's pretty obvious that if China's economy tanks, then Taiwan isn't going to be to thrilled about any re-unification talks.

In order for military action against Taiwan to be considered, the following two conditions must be true:

- The PLA is capable of invading and occupying Taiwan even *in spite* of an American intervention. Gambling on non-intervention by the US is as foolish as Kim Il Sung's gamble that led to the Korean War.

- Military action is the most cost-effective leverage against Taiwan. That means economic and diplomatic options have been exhausted already.

There is a good discussion in this thread. I agree that as Taiwan and China's economies integrate, with more to lose on both sides, a declaration of independence is increasingly unlikely. In fact I think it is virtually impossible now. Independence-fervor peaked in the the late 1990s and early 2000s and the military edge has shifted dramatically in China's favor where they could probably win a war as long as the U.S. does not intervene. Taiwan just ratified a free trade pact with China so their economy will be even more interconnected with China's.

There are two trends that work against the status quo. One is the itch among young Chinese nationalists to see reunification. They see Taiwan as an open sore, a rebellious province that unlike Hong Kong and Macau has still not accepted Beijing's supremacy. Eventually they are going to get tired of waiting for Taiwan to come around and force the issue. If China's economy implodes from a bubble, the government might distract people with a war against Taiwan.

The second trend is the military wanting a war. Yes, as un-politically correct as that is, deep down you know it's true. They will be pushing to try out its new weapons. They want a challenge. The rapid modernization of the PLA and all the new weapons it is developed have excited the PLA and political leadership. I am not picking on China when I make that statement, all militaries secretly yearn for a chance to prove their mettle in combat, just like young soldiers fresh out of boot camp yearn for combat.

It's like a sports team that trains and trains and trains...do you really expect them to never want to play a game for real? When you watch porn, are you satisfied with porn or do you want the real thing? It may not be politically correct but human psychology and organizational psychology will push the PLA toward war. Like all militaries, especially the militaries of rising powers, the PLA wants a war. They want to try out their new weapon systems and tactics. Young officers want to be promoted, and the fastest route to promotion is combat experience. To a hammer, everything looks like a nail.

Geographer said:

There are two trends that work against the status quo. One is the itch among young Chinese nationalists to see reunification. They see Taiwan as an open sore, a rebellious province that unlike Hong Kong and Macau has still not accepted Beijing's supremacy. Eventually they are going to get tired of waiting for Taiwan to come around and force the issue. If China's economy implodes from a bubble, the government might distract people with a war against Taiwan.

The second trend is the military wanting a war. Yes, as un-politically correct as that is, deep down you know it's true. They will be pushing to try out its new weapons. They want a challenge. The rapid modernization of the PLA and all the new weapons it is developed have excited the PLA and political leadership. I am not picking on China when I make that statement, all militaries secretly yearn for a chance to prove their mettle in combat, just like young soldiers fresh out of boot camp yearn for combat.

It's like a sports team that trains and trains and trains...do you really expect them to never want to play a game for real? When you watch porn, are you satisfied with porn or do you want the real thing? It may not be politically correct but human psychology and organizational psychology will push the PLA toward war. Like all militaries, especially the militaries of rising powers, the PLA wants a war. They want to try out their new weapon systems and tactics. Young officers want to be promoted, and the fastest route to promotion is combat experience. To a hammer, everything looks like a nail.

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I strongly disagree with you on both points.

What evidence do you have that:

1) Re-unification is an "itch" among young Chinese, and that a sizeable majority of the Chinese population sees Taiwan as an "open sore" and wants to impose "Beijing's supremacy"?

2) That the PLA is itching for a war? Furthermore, last time I checked, the PLA is firmly under the control of the CCP, a civilian organization. Even if your assessment of the PLA was correct, which I do not think it is, the PLA is not going to do anything without CCP permission.

1) Re-unification is an "itch" among young Chinese, and that a sizeable majority of the Chinese population sees Taiwan as an "open sore" and wants to impose "Beijing's supremacy"?

2) That the PLA is itching for a war? Furthermore, last time I checked, the PLA is firmly under the control of the CCP, a civilian organization. Even if your assessment of the PLA was correct, which I do not think it is, the PLA is not going to do anything without CCP permission.

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1. Yes. The existence of Taiwan as a rebellious province angers the CCP and younger Chinese population, even if they're not making noise about declaring independence. They'll tolerate it for awhile, but not forever.

2. Every U.S. government agency is formally under the control of Congress and the President but they influence policy all the time. They help and hurt certain politicians by leaking information, releasing carefully worded reports, and staging events to embarrass certain people or policies. Militaries the world over have staged or exaggerated incidents like the 1931 Mukden incident to justify Japan invading Manchuria, the 1939 Gleiwitz incident to justify the German invasion of Poland, and 1964 Gulf of Tonkin "attack" to justify expanding the war in Vietnam.

It's true that Communist nations have historically had far more control over their militaries than fascist or democratic nations, but remember the Soviet Union had a coup d'tat attempt in 1991. It was a coup d'tat in 1976 that ended the Cultural Revolution. Marshall Ye Jianying led the military against the Gang of Four.

solarz said:

Once the US can no longer contain China's military influence near Taiwan, then Taiwan will have lost its main bargaining chip.

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US military power is only a counter to Chinese military aggression. I thought that the whole point of Chinese strategy was that unification will come about peacefully, unless Taiwan declares independence formally.

So are you suggesting that once China feels it could take Taiwan and fight off any US intervention, it would be willing to go to war even if Taiwan had not declared independence?

delft said:

For its own security PRC will want to use naval bases and air bases on Taiwan. This to keep USN further away from the Chinese coast. In return PRC will be happy to grant Taiwan a larger measure of autonomy than Hong Kong enjoys.

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But if Taiwan allows PLA troops to be stationed there, that undermines Taiwanese security and therefore autonomy. First because it could easily get dragged into any conflicts China was involved with where Taiwanese bases were used. Second because with PLA troops in Taiwan it would give Beijing a degree of power there to reduce/undermine the amount of autonomy if it was unhappy with the way things were going. Even if it was just psychological, the presense of PLA personnel would have an effect on Taiwanese.

As I said earlier, for all intense purposes Taiwan is already independent. Why are Taiwanese going to give that up for "autonomy" that Beijing will doubtlessly be able to modify if it so chooses? For example, the UK has great trade links with the rest of Europe. We benefit from being in the EU hugely. But opposition to a federal Europe is huge here. So even with booming trade between China and Taiwan, it doesn't follow that Taiwanese are going to agree with transfering politicial, judicial or constitutional powers to Beijing.

Soon South Korea and Japan would do well to choose China as guarantor of their security.

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With all due respect, I'm not sure you understand how South Korea or Japan feel. South Korea notes that China has repeatedly provided support to North Korea and has yet to get Pyongyang to give up its nuclear weapons. And China has territorial disputes with Japan. So it's a no-brainer for them to look to the US for additional military support.

Geographer said:

1. Yes. The existence of Taiwan as a rebellious province angers the CCP and younger Chinese population, even if they're not making noise about declaring independence. They'll tolerate it for awhile, but not forever.

2. Every U.S. government agency is formally under the control of Congress and the President but they influence policy all the time. They help and hurt certain politicians by leaking information, releasing carefully worded reports, and staging events to embarrass certain people or policies. Militaries the world over have staged or exaggerated incidents like the 1931 Mukden incident to justify Japan invading Manchuria, the 1939 Gleiwitz incident to justify the German invasion of Poland, and 1964 Gulf of Tonkin "attack" to justify expanding the war in Vietnam.

It's true that Communist nations have historically had far more control over their militaries than fascist or democratic nations, but remember the Soviet Union had a coup d'tat attempt in 1991. It was a coup d'tat in 1976 that ended the Cultural Revolution. Marshall Ye Jianying led the military against the Gang of Four.

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1. Why would younger Chinese be angry at Taiwan? Because like terrorists, Chinese "hate freedom" and are "jealous about democracy"? Unless you are brain-washed by Fox news, this is not the case.

2. PLA is under firm civilian control. The so-called military-civilian disunion in events like the anti-satellite test and J-20 first flight is nothing but speculations by Western media. Even if Chinese economy implodes, which is highly unlikely, there is no reason to suspect China will go to a large-scale War such as invading Taiwan. When Chinese economy imploded in 1959-62, China only had a limited conflict with Indian, not because Chinese leaders wanted to distract Chinese people, but because Cuban missile crisis gave Chinese the opportunity to act under radar screen. During Culture Revolution, Chinese economy stagnated for 10 years, yet nothing happened.

1. Why would younger Chinese be angry at Taiwan? Because like terrorists, Chinese "hate freedom" and are "jealous about democracy"? Unless you are brain-washed by Fox news, this is not the case.

2. PLA is under firm civilian control. The so-called military-civilian disunion in events like the anti-satellite test and J-20 first flight is nothing but speculations by Western media. Even if Chinese economy implodes, which is highly unlikely, there is no reason to suspect China will go to a large-scale War such as invading Taiwan. When Chinese economy imploded in 1959-62, China only had a limited conflict with Indian, not because Chinese leaders wanted to distract Chinese people, but because Cuban missile crisis gave Chinese the opportunity to act under radar screen. During Culture Revolution, Chinese economy stagnated for 10 years, yet nothing happened.

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Good points. It's not that Chinese "hate freedom" or are "jealous about democracy" (I don't know where you're getting those ideas), but that China is not yet unified. The unification of China has been a centuries-long process for Chinese rulers since the Qing dynasty. Why do think China celebrated the return of Hong Kong? Because it was a righting of an old imperial wrong, the much-maligned "unequal treaties" that led embarrassed China throughout the 19th century. I think many Chinese see the RoC's encampment in Taiwan as an extension of Western imperialism because they were backed, and remain backed, so fervently by the West. It's like if the American South had seceded and the fought the North to a standstill: would the North be happy to let the status quo go on, or seek to settle the argument once and for all?

Besides, there are tangible strategic benefits to gaining control over Taiwan, like all its fortified ports and airfields, all the Western technology sold to the ROC military, the ability to tax an additional 23 million people, the ability to leverage an even larger economy in trade negotiations to extract more favorable concessions, fishing waters, the Taiwanese base on Itu Aba which is the largest island in the Spratly Islands, and better access to the Diaoyu Islands from which to push Japanese patrols away.

The Chinese military and used to be more closely alligned. They used to have huge business and economic interests until the CCP forced them to divest their interests in that and focus on being a military. They are a huge bureaucracy, and even with the watchful eyes of the CCP and integration of top leadership into the Poliburo, there are some organization tendencies that will always be there. Young officers are hungry to prove themselves in combat. Young solders are gung-ho to kill the enemy. Weapons designers yearn to see how their years of hard work stacks up against the enemy.

Here's the thing: practice creates a demand for the real thing. It's just human psychology. It's why football players are raring to go at the start of the season because they want that challenge, they want to scrimmage against someone else besides their teammates. It's PC but disingenuous for a weapons scientist to say "We worked really hard on the new J-20, spent years fine-tuning it, running it through all kinds of scenarios, but we hope we will never see it used in combat."

The American, British, and French militaries have no such problem because they are constantly engaged in combat somewhere in the world. They are like the guys who get work out and go to Fight Club every week to let off steam. The Chinese, on the other hand, are the guys who work out, learn martial arts, practice constantly, but swear up and down they hope they never have to use their skills.

Yeah, right.

This has been a rather interesting and civil discussion with many great points made. Just like to add in a few points to the discussion.

plawolf said:

As HK and Macau shows, people can live their lives pretty much exactly as before under Beijing's rule.

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HK and Macau has unfortunately shown that following reunification with PRC, they get swamped by people getting out of PRC into the Special Administrative Region (SAR). This has led to overcrowding in public transport, hospitals, housing, etc. Xenophobic tendencies also seems to be on the rise in HK where the locals there are attributing the increase in crime rates to the influx of people from PRC.

Also, the recent flap about HK Chief Executive's lack of long term vision and planning for the territory is surely not helping the pro-reunification cause in RoC.

solarz said:

2) That the PLA is itching for a war? Furthermore, last time I checked, the PLA is firmly under the control of the CCP, a civilian organization. Even if your assessment of the PLA was correct, which I do not think it is, the PLA is not going to do anything without CCP permission.

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The issue of how much control the CMC (and hence CCP) exercise over the PLA is a subjective issue. And given the tight control over media in PRC, any negative news concerning CCP-PLA relations will never make it to the media.

Nonetheless, in the book Fortifying China (listed on the homepage of SDF), the writer notes that it took Deng Xiaoping many years to get the PLA to agree to reforms that resulted in the current economic powerhouse that is PRC. Significantly, the writer drew this from official PLA and CCP publications.

Now, if Deng Xiaoping had such a hard time getting the PLA to agree to reforms, would newer generation leaders have an easier or harder time running the PLA?

I see a lot of misinformation by various posters here, so I'm not going to multi-quote and create a mess.

1- Young Chinese are *not* angry over Taiwan and the status quo. They would definitely be opposed to Taiwan Independence but most of them are just fine with the status quo. Go to China and talk to people. The common attitude you will get is that re-unification is inevitable and that time is on Mainland's side.

2- Getting the PLA to reform is a completely different matter from controlling the PLA's military command. Getting any large organization to reform is an extremely difficult process. The vast majority of international experts agree that the PLA is under the firm control of the CCP.

3- Where has it been shown that HK or Macau has been swamped by Mainlanders?