PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

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Vlad Plasmius

Junior Member
Re: PLAN Stragety in the Taiwan Strait

Geographer said:
This is a fantasy. It will take months to mobilize enough air, army, and naval assets into nearby provinces to even move against Taiwan. These moves will be detected by satellite reconnaissance and Taiwan will be get to prepare accordingly. That would make an amphibious assault even harder.
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I think you are greatly underestimating Chinese military capabilities with this comment. An air and naval campaign could be initiated almost immediately against Taiwan. Airborne and amphibious troops could also quickly be deployed to the area around Taiwan or sent into Taiwan itself.
 
Geographer

Geographer

Junior Member
Re: PLAN Stragety in the Taiwan Strait

I think you are greatly underestimating Chinese military capabilities with this comment. An air and naval campaign could be initiated almost immediately against Taiwan. Airborne and amphibious troops could also quickly be deployed to the area around Taiwan or sent into Taiwan itself.
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On what grounds do you say that? We have very little information on operational capabilities of the Chinese military. My points of reference are the more advanced and experienced militaries of the United States, France, and Britain. They can launch small-scale air-strikes and airborne assaults at short notice, but against weak Third World foes like Libya, Somalia, and Iraq. The Iraq War was preceded by months of buildup in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. After that, it still took three weeks to reach Baghdad in the most favorable terrain imaginable: open desert with some urban areas.

China might be able to launch a naval assault on Taiwan's navy and shipping around the island at short notice because all its ships are within striking distance even when they're at port. But China's air force is spread out over a vast territory. China would need to bring probably 60 percent of its air power to bear in order to run round-the-clock sorties, accompanied by AEW and tanker assets, over the Taiwan Straits. They would have to mass all those planes in bases that are within range of Taiwan.

An airborne assault by itself would be a tremendous waste of elite troops. They would be quickly located and hammered by every ground asset Taiwan has, and only be to resupplied by air. Sounds like the Battles of Dien Bien Phu and Stalingrad which both ended in humiliating and strategic defeats. An airborne assault in support of an amphibious invasion would be more useful, but still risky.

Without more experience, these kind of complex, combined-arms operations are really difficult. There are a lot of moving parts to coordinate, and Taiwan would be a smart, adaptive foe. Even the Serbian and Libyan armies have shown skills at adapting to overwhelming air power. China's isolationism has denied them valuable combat experience. Their military is as green as Japan's. China can catch up in hardware and training but there is just no substitute for experience.
 
Hendrik_2000

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
Re: PLAN Stragety in the Taiwan Strait

Geographer said:
On what grounds do you say that? We have very little information on operational capabilities of the Chinese military. My points of reference are the more advanced and experienced militaries of the United States, France, and Britain. They can launch small-scale air-strikes and airborne assaults at short notice, but against weak Third World foes like Libya, Somalia, and Iraq. The Iraq War was preceded by months of buildup in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. After that, it still took three weeks to reach Baghdad in the most favorable terrain imaginable: open desert with some urban areas.

China might be able to launch a naval assault on Taiwan's navy and shipping around the island at short notice because all its ships are within striking distance even when they're at port. But China's air force is spread out over a vast territory. China would need to bring probably 60 percent of its air power to bear in order to run round-the-clock sorties, accompanied by AEW and tanker assets, over the Taiwan Straits. They would have to mass all those planes in bases that are within range of Taiwan.

An airborne assault by itself would be a tremendous waste of elite troops. They would be quickly located and hammered by every ground asset Taiwan has, and only be to resupplied by air. Sounds like the Battles of Dien Bien Phu and Stalingrad which both ended in humiliating and strategic defeats. An airborne assault in support of an amphibious invasion would be more useful, but still risky.

Without more experience, these kind of complex, combined-arms operations are really difficult. There are a lot of moving parts to coordinate, and Taiwan would be a smart, adaptive foe. Even the Serbian and Libyan armies have shown skills at adapting to overwhelming air power. China's isolationism has denied them valuable combat experience. Their military is as green as Japan's. China can catch up in hardware and training but there is just no substitute for experience.
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You make it sound like Taiwan recruits are supersize giant Spartan which they are not. Let Face it Taiwan is highly urbanized society, Wonder how they stack up without their yummy hawker centre or their cool Air condition home or office.

In other word don't expect too much from conscripted army.
Unlike Israel or even Singapore there is no urgency to defend the island to the death.
There are million of Taiwanese making good money in China. So they know Taiwan end is not necessarily the end of good time.

Most of them are not interested in serving in the army. That is the reason they want to change to professional army but because of budget they cannot even afford professional army wihout compromising their weapon acqusition.
Their military is so compromised that US didn't trust them with their advanced weapon.


Taiwan is small narrow Island Guerila work need room to roam with wild country side with no road or communication not highly urbanized small island with well establish road.
Where the loyalty 50% of the populations are suspect
 
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Finn McCool

Finn McCool

Captain
Registered Member
Re: PLAN Stragety in the Taiwan Strait

Hendrik_2000 said:
Taiwan is small narrow Island Guerila work need room to roam with wild country side with no road or communication not highly urbanized small island with well establish road.
Where the loyalty 50% of the populations are suspect
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Sounds like what the IRA had to deal with. And they weren't an effective guerrilla group or anything right?
 
V

Vlad Plasmius

Junior Member
Re: PLAN Stragety in the Taiwan Strait

Geographer said:
On what grounds do you say that? We have very little information on operational capabilities of the Chinese military. My points of reference are the more advanced and experienced militaries of the United States, France, and Britain. They can launch small-scale air-strikes and airborne assaults at short notice, but against weak Third World foes like Libya, Somalia, and Iraq. The Iraq War was preceded by months of buildup in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. After that, it still took three weeks to reach Baghdad in the most favorable terrain imaginable: open desert with some urban areas.
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Ok, look at a map for a few seconds then come back and give me your thoughts about why one would not take as long as the other.

China might be able to launch a naval assault on Taiwan's navy and shipping around the island at short notice because all its ships are within striking distance even when they're at port. But China's air force is spread out over a vast territory. China would need to bring probably 60 percent of its air power to bear in order to run round-the-clock sorties, accompanied by AEW and tanker assets, over the Taiwan Straits. They would have to mass all those planes in bases that are within range of Taiwan.
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Most of their tanker and AEW aircraft are already based within range of Taiwan. Now, if you read back you would see I am talking about a very rapid establishment of air supremacy similar to what happened in Operation Focus. Still, round-the-clock sorties would be well within the capabilities of the PLAAF at present with what they currently have in range of Taiwan.

An airborne assault by itself would be a tremendous waste of elite troops. They would be quickly located and hammered by every ground asset Taiwan has, and only be to resupplied by air. Sounds like the Battles of Dien Bien Phu and Stalingrad which both ended in humiliating and strategic defeats. An airborne assault in support of an amphibious invasion would be more useful, but still risky.
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You are providing two very bad examples. A better example would have been Operation Husky or the airborne actions on D-Day.
 
bladerunner

bladerunner

Banned Idiot
Re: PLAN Stragety in the Taiwan Strait

Hendrik_2000 said:
Unlike Israel or even Singapore there is no urgency to defend the island to the death.
There are million of Taiwanese making good money in China. So they know Taiwan end is not necessarily the end of good time.
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Benjamin Frankln got it right when he said all those years ago"

"They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety."

Still a country where as you say 50% of the population is suspect, could be a hard task tomanage smoothly.
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Hendrik_2000

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
Re: PLAN Stragety in the Taiwan Strait

bladerunner said:
Benjamin Frankln got it right when he said all those years ago"

"They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety.

Still a country where as you say 50% of the population is suspect could be a hard task tomanage smoothly.
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Not if the other 50% will spy on you. Ireland is no comparison to Taiwan. there is no religion fanatism ever in Chinese history. There is no 200 years war because one faction believe their bible is better than the other guy.

If history is any guide you can see that whole divison of kuomintang army surrender city, territory without firing a single bullet.

Chinese are practical people and not ideoloque.

Ryukyu was brutally subjugated by Satsuma clan in 1879. Fastforward do any Okinawan today still feel as citizen of Ryukyu or Citizen of Japan?
Time will do wonder

I don't believe there is any chance of conflict unless Taiwan people lost their mind and vote independence. They have to settle the dispute peacefully and open dialoque for eventual reunification.

Given China ascendant it is more or less a given fact. Where economy lead politic usually follow unless somebody throw a monkeywrench
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C

cirvine11

New Member
Re: PLAN Stragety in the Taiwan Strait

plawolf said:
A blockade is slow and unreliable. It also results in mass suffering for the civilian population of Taiwan.
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Are you saying that an invasion would be less destructive and kill less civilians than a blockade?

Also, your knowledge in the area of amphibious warfare could use a little more background. May I suggest a book called "Seapower In The Falklands"? That will tell you a bit about the challenges the British faced trying to land... 3,000 troops... against an inexperienced, but well equipped, enemy.

You had some ideas about what platforms could used to transport an invasion force. Try this-come up with what would be needed to fight on land and win, their numbers, how quickly it would need to be ashore, what it takes to supply them... and then work backwards and see what shipping could supply such a force. Don't forget the logistics for the ships. They need supplies too. And remember... they can only unload so fast.
And oh yeah... the world's most powerful navy-and their allies-may decide to attack your shipping before they unload... not to mention the enemy ashore.

Now you'll understand the depth of the challenge. Quite daunting.
 
bd popeye

bd popeye

The Last Jedi
VIP Professional
Re: PLAN Stragety in the Taiwan Strait

franco-russe said:
Will the Stragety in the title of this thread ever be corrected into Strategy?
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Done! My bad.
icon_redface.gif
. I should have caught that!
 
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