PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

Re: PLAN Stragety in the Taiwan Strait

Chinese mainland would never use nukes on Taiwan. They would even use it on Tibet and Xinjiang before using it on Taiwan. It is Han Chinese, as Chinese as a culture can be.... The idea of mainland nuking Taiwan would be like US federal government nuking Texas because it is seeking independence (believe it or not, there's actually such movement going on in Texas at the moment). This talk is absurd and would never take place.

I personally think this thread has nothing to do with military, but rather with politics, economics and culture. The use of violence is the last resort any Chinese leader would use on Taiwan, it is only an extension of political will when politics no longer work. But other than that, the use of force would never take place. If Taiwan reunites with mainland China, it would be just like Hong Kong and Macau. It would happen peacefully. An invasion by the mainland would just end up a mess like in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Re: PLAN Stragety in the Taiwan Strait

Bltizo said:

. (But I don't see how what you posted was relevant to whatever was being said before? )

Who mentioned nuking Taiwan in the first place anyhow? It's one of the most ridiculous scenarios I've seen yet... jeez...
EDIT: Ah reading back, it was suggested as a shock and awe tactic... .

Click to expand...

Now I will talk about something off topic briefly, just had to bring it to your attention. Friday Herald Re Chinese stuff Interview with Lincoln Tan> 15 lines from bottom of article.
"A survey found some Chinese rated loyalty to China as the most important trait a Chinese MP in NZ must have.


What a goofy thing to say and print in the nations leading Newspaper. thats more ammo for the Garth George's as to become a MP or vote? as a naturalised citizen of NZyou have to swear loyalty to NZ.

Re: PLAN Stragety in the Taiwan Strait

kroko said:

Useless thread. Political guessing about what will happen in the far future is pointless. Besides i bet that this thread will turn into a USA vs china thread.

Click to expand...

I hope not. I did start this thread.

Gents let's keep the discussion focused on how the PLAN operates in the Taiwan strait.For now and in the future. And stop discussing nuclear war.

Re: PLAN Stragety in the Taiwan Strait

I thought the thread title should be PLA strategy in the Taiwan Strait (rather than just PLAN, since the PLAAF and 2nd Artillery will be involved as well).

Anyway, the thing about PRC is that they have time. They are 1 of the world's oldest civilisation and they can afford to wait. Based on current trends:

1. PRC's economy continues to boom. This will allow the PLA budget to continue to increase every year and for the PLA modernisation to continue. The end result is that in years to come, they will be facing obsolete military hardware on the other side of the Taiwan Strait with their state-of-the-art hardware.

2. The US is looking at cuts in their military budget. How drastic the cuts are (or otherwise) remains to be seen. Bottom-line is that the gap between the PLA and the US military is closing because of simple economics.

3. RoC's economy is increasingly intertwined with PRC's economy. Thus, any move towards independence will hurt RoC's economy. A lot. That's livelihoods at stake in a democracy. In other words, political suicide.

Thus, PRC doesn't really need to unleash the PLA on Taiwan unless RoC tries to declare independence. They can simply wait until the disparity between PLA and RoC military and RoC's economic dependence on PRC is so great that RoC don't really have much of an option except to accept re-unification peacefully.

Regarding the suggestion on the use of nuclear weapons by PRC, that would be violating PRC leadership's often stated principle of "no first use". Hence, it is an extremely unlikely scenario.

Just to throw a spanner in the works though. PRC has not experienced any recession since the opening up of their economy in the 70s. Is this sustainable forever? If not, what will the effects of a recession be on the PRC and cross-strait relations? Personally, I suspect a severe recession in PRC may just result in the entire leadership changing. In such a situation, RoC may just try to push the limit on cross-strait issues.

Re: PLAN Stragety in the Taiwan Strait

Chinese mainland would never use nukes on Taiwan. They would even use it on Tibet and Xinjiang before using it on Taiwan. It is Han Chinese, as Chinese as a culture can be.... The idea of mainland nuking Taiwan would be like US federal government nuking Texas because it is seeking independence (believe it or not, there's actually such movement going on in Texas at the moment).

Click to expand...

But China would rocket and bomb fellow Han Chinese? Of course they would, they've been doing it for thousands of years, and did it to great effect during the Chinese civil war. If the death toll and destruction of one nuclear weapon is equal to that of thousands of tons of conventional munitions--which is exactly what would the Mainland would have to inflict on Taiwan in order to win!!--what's the difference? And if one nuclear weapon can induce quick surrender and save lives in the long-run, why is that not advantageous?

I think many people have the unrealistic vision of a short, limited war with Taiwan. Noooo, it will be long and bloody. If the it gets too bloody, Japan and the United States may intervene, and then the Mainland will lose. Much of their strategy focuses on a quick victory but has no way to achieve it in the next two decades. I don't think the Mainland will ever have the ability to defeat Taiwan in a quick war, defined as under one month, using conventional means. Remember the Iraq War in 2003? In the open desert where the world's most advanced army crossed by land into a country wracked by sanctions, it took three weeks to get to Baghdad. How long do you think it will take China to land an invasion force on Taiwan and battle through the mountains and jungles against a modern army? I have no doubt that if Taiwan does not get foreign help they will lose, but it will be long and bloody. I'm not just talking about the combat, food will run low and basic services will break down.

If the Mainland is determined to retake Taiwan by force in the future, they would be wise to consider a nuclear strike rather than a conventional invasion.

However, I believe it will never come to that. I suspect Taiwan will eventually return to the Mainland ala Hong Kong as a Special Administrative Region with a guarantee of autonomy for 50 years.

Re: PLAN Stragety in the Taiwan Strait

Geographer said:

But China would rocket and bomb fellow Han Chinese? Of course they would, they've been doing it for thousands of years, and did it to great effect during the Chinese civil war. If the death toll and destruction of one nuclear weapon is equal to that of thousands of tons of conventional munitions--which is exactly what would the Mainland would have to inflict on Taiwan in order to win!!--what's the difference? And if one nuclear weapon can induce quick surrender and save lives in the long-run, why is that not advantageous?

I think many people have the unrealistic vision of a short, limited war with Taiwan. Noooo, it will be long and bloody. If the it gets too bloody, Japan and the United States may intervene, and then the Mainland will lose. Much of their strategy focuses on a quick victory but has no way to achieve it in the next two decades. I don't think the Mainland will ever have the ability to defeat Taiwan in a quick war, defined as under one month, using conventional means. Remember the Iraq War in 2003? In the open desert where the world's most advanced army crossed by land into a country wracked by sanctions, it took three weeks to get to Baghdad. How long do you think it will take China to land an invasion force on Taiwan and battle through the mountains and jungles against a modern army? I have no doubt that if Taiwan does not get foreign help they will lose, but it will be long and bloody. I'm not just talking about the combat, food will run low and basic services will break down.

If the Mainland is determined to retake Taiwan by force in the future, they would be wise to consider a nuclear strike rather than a conventional invasion.

However, I believe it will never come to that. I suspect Taiwan will eventually return to the Mainland ala Hong Kong as a Special Administrative Region with a guarantee of autonomy for 50 years.

Click to expand...

I don't think China will allow itself to get into a war over Taiwan if it would become long and bloody... Or otherwise they would simply withdraw. The effects on economy and potential civil problems back home will prompt the CCP to make it so.

The mainland would only use force if it looked like Taiwan was to declare formal independence or move to independence economically/politically. The consequences of a nuclear strike are unimaginable even compared to a potentially long and bloody conflict.

But for once I agree with kroko before -- it's kind of useless to guess what might happen in the future. I'm gonna refrain from it and here my contribution here.

bladerunner said:

Now I will talk about something off topic briefly, just had to bring it to your attention. Friday Herald Re Chinese stuff Interview with Lincoln Tan> 15 lines from bottom of article.
"A survey found some Chinese rated loyalty to China as the most important trait a Chinese MP in NZ must have.


What a goofy thing to say and print in the nations leading Newspaper. thats more ammo for the Garth George's as to become a MP or vote? as a naturalised citizen of NZyou have to swear loyalty to NZ.

Click to expand...

I don't completely agree with that last statement. Are there parameters in regards to loyalty to a country? Say if the country you have a citizenship and live in goes to war with the country where you and the family before you was born, would it be wrong to support your country of heritage?

I dunno, it sounds rather manipulative and cheap as if people who would do that are just taking advantage of the second country's living standards... but doesn't that happen all around the world?

Re: PLAN Stragety in the Taiwan Strait

Government, and country are not as physical as they seems.
If you stop to think about it, you realise how little power they actually have. People give their own power over to governments willingly, and through being made to believe that the government is all the building, all the men in uniform, all the pieces of paper they can see. They themselves were made to believe that governments are larger than life.

But ofcourse people needs to be rule by functioning governments, and if there is no government very soon people will make another one for themselves.

Re: PLAN Stragety in the Taiwan Strait

There is a big issue in this SDF that, certain senior member got this little perk, that, when touch "a little bit" of political BS, it is OK!!?

Sure, all hypothetical....

Don't know those with INTELLIGENCE background ever come accross THIS hypothetical intel before, they called it "A Beijingnese' dumb idea of RECOVERY of Taiwan." ( "How to RECOVERY Taiwan FOR DUMMYs" - the more popular name for english natives)

The thing is, since it is hypothetical, what's the USA MILITARY MIGHT is going to do -

When PRC simply shots long range rocket WITH NO PURPOSE into Taiwan terrene - and USA response - and PRC stops.

So, you gonna "show down" to PRC NATIONAL MIGHT (similiar to the term "military might"), just because the most potential DISASTROUS competitor nation of yours(the PRC), doing something so MINOR to American life?

-You sanction. It "works" to those believe it works.

_________________________________________________________________________

The CBG lurk around for such a long time, you even swap CBGs for "containment"... As long as there is no "show down" because of AMERICAN president wants such thing so deadly - PRC lives as her usual.

Then one day, "rockets" (use your imagination) fires again. -What? when CBGs around? -No, somewhere else, where AMERICAN INTEREST hurts... -so, CBG leaves for whatever "cause" it is... (don't mind how many "left for TW", we make sure "enough has left for the rescue")

And rockets fires again, to Taiwan, where those who demands independence hurts, and when uncle sam's CBG loops around the whole world's "hot spots" for "containment"...

It ends when those "demands independence" Taiwan politicians are no more...
It ends when those who lived at the island of Taiwan finally knows there is no future to going on...
It ends when CHINA'S DOMESTIC PROBLEM finally settles...

Really, those who claims to be "analyst", you really should looking into the problem of what I (and many others) described as the most potential DISASTROUS competitor nation of yours (which is, PRC), simply plays NASTY.

Re: PLAN Stragety in the Taiwan Strait

Red___Sword said:

There is a big issue in this SDF that, certain senior member got this little perk, that, when touch "a little bit" of political BS, it is OK!!?

...

Click to expand...

I... can't... understand... what you wrote... very well...

Maybe you can edit and clarify?

Re: PLAN Stragety in the Taiwan Strait

ToxSic said:

I... can't... understand... what you wrote... very well...

Maybe you can edit and clarify?

Click to expand...

Basicly, any idea of PRC and (let's face it) USA doing a major "show down" type of battle, over TW issue... is simply fanboy childish wet dream - for both side.

This issue would simply boils up by NASTY PLAY, that's the whole idea, and that's the IR truth.